The New York Mets host the Washington Nationals on Tuesday, June 10, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MASN and SNY.
Find my Nationals vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
My Nationals vs Mets Prediction
- Nationals vs Mets picks: Nationals +1.5 (-160 | Play to -170)
My Nationals vs Mets best bet is on the Nationals to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Mets Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
Nationals vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP MacKenzie Gore (WSH) | Stat | RHP Griffin Canning (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | W-L | 6-2 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 2.87 / 3.20 | ERA /xERA | 2.90 / 4.09 |
| 2.58 / 2.53 | FIP / xFIP | 3.78 / 3.68 |
| 1.14 | WHIP | 1.32 |
| 28.2% | K-BB% | 12.4% |
| 37.8% | GB% | 51.8% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 104 | Location+ | 100 |
Tony Sartori's Nationals vs Mets Preview
Washington Nationals Betting Preview: Standout Season For MacKenzie Gore
MacKenzie Gore is quietly putting together an excellent season. Through 13 starts, the former No. 3 overall draft pick owns a 2.87 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest that more of the same can be expected moving forward. Gore ranks in the 71st percentile or higher in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), strikeout rate and walk rate.
He should also receive a solid amount of run support. Entering this matchup, Washington ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game.
That offensive success is likely to continue against Griffin Canning. In 65 combined plate appearances against Canning, the current Nationals roster owns a .300 batting average, .517 slugging percentage and .368 weighted on-base average (wOBA).
New York Mets Betting Preview: Canning Could Regress Against Washington
Like Gore, Canning has been impressive so far this season. However, the difference between them lies in the underlying data, as Canning's analytics suggest regression is looming.
Despite his 2.90 ERA, the right-hander has a 4.09 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. That regression could come against a Washington lineup that has historically performed well against him.
While the pitching edge goes to Washington, the offensive advantage belongs to New York. The Mets rank in the top 10 in runs per game, on-base percentage (OBP), slugging percentage and OPS.
That said, they have seen mixed results against Gore. In 98 combined plate appearances, the current Mets roster has managed just a .364 slugging percentage against the left-hander, a below-average figure.
Nationals vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
New York does possess a stronger bullpen, which is why there’s hesitation to back Washington on the moneyline. However, Gore should be able to keep this game competitive.
He is superior to Canning both statistically and analytically. While both lineups are capable of producing runs, Washington’s strong history against Canning helps balance the matchup.
Pick: Nationals +1.5 (-160 | Play to -170)
Moneyline
I like the Nationals to win this game, but would rather take the spread due to the bullpen mismatch.
Run Line (Spread)
As mentioned, I'm betting on the Nationals run line.
Over/Under
I lean toward the Under, but I don't trust Canning.
