The New York Yankees host the Washington Nationals on August 26, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MASN2.
The Yankees enter game two of this series as -180 favorites with an 8.5 run total.
Find my MLB betting preview and Nationals vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Nationals vs Yankees Prediction
- Nationals vs Yankees picks: Over 8.5 (play to 9)
My Nationals vs Yankees best bet is Over 8.5 (play to 9). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Yankees Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
- - | - - / - | - |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
- - | - - / - | - |
Nationals vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Mackenzie Gore (WAS) | Stat | RHP Luis Gil (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-12 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 2.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 4.11/4.21 | ERA /xERA | 4.26/4.88 |
| 3.61/3.68 | FIP / xFIP | 4.06/5.14 |
| 1.35 | WHIP | 1.68 |
| 3.2 | K-BB% | 1.3 |
| 35.4 | GB% | 29.1 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 99 | Location+ | 89 |
Sean Paul’s Nationals vs Yankees Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview
I haven't come away very impressed by the reigning AL ROY, Luis Gil, so far this season. Gil didn't make his season debut until August 3rd due to a long-term injury. He's really struggled staying in the zone, walking over six batters per nine. Plus, he's struck out four or fewer bats in three of his four starts.
To me, that suggests Gil is throwing competitive enough pitches to get swings. Last year, the flamethrower ranked in the 76th percentile in whiff rate and 77th in strikeout rate. While not qualified, Gil has struggled to re-create his premier swing-and-miss stuff from last year.
He could easily have a meltdown outing if his control doesn't get on track.
New York ranks seventh in MLB with a 113 wRC+ this month. A lot of what the Yankees' offense is and can be rests on Aaron Judge's shoulders. The front-runner for MVP is hitting just .207 in August after returning from his elbow injury. On the flip side, Giancarlo Stanton is having his best stretch as a Yankee, posting a 274 wRC+ with eight homers in his last 19 games.
While you can't expect Stanton to have a 274 wRC+ in the next 30 games, it's reasonable to expect Judge to return to his form that has him as the leader for his third MVP.
For all the Yankees' offensive inconsistency, two things remain a constant — their ability to draw walks and hit homers. They lead the league with a 10.8% walk rate and in homers this month.
Both of those factors bode very well in this matchup, as Nationals hurler Mackenzie Gore struggles with both.
Washington Nationals Betting Preview
The last seven starts have been a total trainwreck for Gore, posting a 7.88 ERA with a 1.88 WHIP. He's walked 19 batters in those seven outings and allowed eight home runs. Oddly enough, Gore surrendered multiple home runs in four of the seven games and none in three of them.
Of the 144 pitchers with 20+ innings since the All-Star break, Gore ranks 135th in ERA and 132nd in FIP. I don't feel great about Gore turning this sinking ship around this year. He's just walking too many guys and allowing homers.
Moreover, Gore has three blow-ups of his seven post All-Star break outings, allowing 6+ runs in each. If he serves up another dud, the over would look golden.
Offensively, the Nationals have a 93 wRC+ this month, good for 20th. There isn't anything special about Washington's offense. It places in the bottom ten in strikeout rate, home runs, and walk rate. None of the three true outcomes bodes well for the Nationals.
However, I talked about Gil's walk issues, and if the Nationals can just be patient enough, they can tally some runs. They had some strong offensive showings of late versus the Phillies and Mets, so a random four or five-run scoring game isn't crazy.
Nationals vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
The over is the play here. Odds are Gore gets shelled and doesn't last long in the contest. Backing Gore up is one of the worst bullpens in the sport, which has a 6.16 ERA since the trade deadline. Both Cole Henry and Jose Ferrer could have lasting power in the pen for future years, but nobody else is very good. The bridge between Gore to Ferrer or Henry is a total disaster and could lead to the Yankees stockpiling runs.
Go with the over here.
Pick: Over 8.5 (play to 9)
Moneyline
No play
Run Line (Spread)
No play
Over/Under
I like the over
Nationals vs Yankees Betting Trends
