For my Wednesday MLB player props, I'll be looking into picks for three starting pitchers: Dean Kremer, Randy Vasquez and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Of those three props, I'll be betting three strikeout totals.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for Wednesday, May 14.
MLB Prop Picks — Wednesday, May 14
- Dean Kremer Over 4.5 Strikeouts +120 (DraftKings)
- Randy Vasquez Under 4.5 Strikeouts -125 (DraftKings)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 5.5 Strikeouts -155 (DraftKings)
Twins vs. Orioles Player Props: Kremer Looking to Dominate Again
Wednesday's slate gets started early with the first game of a doubleheader between the Baltimore Orioles and the Minnesota Twins.
Dean Kremer gets the ball for the Orioles, and he's looking to dominate the Twins for the second straight outing.
Kremer faced Minnesota just last week and tossed seven innings of two-run ball while allowing three hits and striking out eight.
Logically, we should expect strikeout regression for Kremer here, but this line is too low.
Kremer's strikeout upside was on full display his last time out, and getting over this total was something he did regularly last season, with a hit rate of 54%.
His most recent performance speaks to the poor discipline the Twins' lineup possesses, as they hold the 13th-highest whiff rate while having the ninth-lowest zone swing rate.
That means the Twins often take strikes and are more likely to swing and miss when they do take hacks.
This all lines up for Kremer to go over for the second straight outing.
Angels vs. Padres Player Props: Fade Vasquez With Confidence
San Diego Padres starter Randy Vasquez is getting a little too much respect after recording five strikeouts against the worst team in baseball, the Colorado Rockies.
On Wednesday, his line is the same, and he has an equally good matchup in the Los Angeles Angels, who have the highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching.
However, the Angels have proven to be much more capable offensively than the Rockies, and Vasquez is due for significant regression.
Vasquez has the lowest strikeout rate amongst qualified pitchers, and that's only amplified by his lack of command, with a walk rate in the fifth percentile.
He's bound for a rough outing, which will limit his window to secure strikeouts, even in a good matchup.
Vasquez has gone under this total in seven of eight starts this year, and that builds on his 75% hit rate from last season.
Fade him with confidence.
Athletics vs. Dodgers Player Props: Big Bounce Back Spot for Yamamoto
Yoshinobu Yamamoto finally took a step back in his last start, as he allowed five earned runs and struck out five against the Diamondbacks.
However, he has an excellent opportunity to bounce back as he takes the mound against the Athletics home.
The Athletics have surprised many offensively, but they still have plenty of swings and misses in their lineup.
Let's not forget that Yamamoto is off to a Cy Young-caliber start and has a strikeout rate that ranks in the 88th percentile.
Yamamoto has tremendous strikeout upside in this matchup, and laying the juice for over 5.5 can be just the beginning. In three of Yamamoto's four overs this season, he's recorded at least nine strikeouts.
If he's heavily favored to record six strikeouts, it makes sense to back him to record seven and eight strikeouts separately. You can ladder him to 7+ strikeouts and 8+ strikeouts, and bet365 has the best prices for each of those.
