White Sox vs Royals Odds, Pick, Prediction (Thursday, April 4)

White Sox vs Royals odds for Thursday, April 4, have the Royals installed as -180 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under set at 8 runs. My White Sox vs Royals prediction targets another over/under, as I like the over on the Royals' team total.

The White Sox and Royals open a four-game series on Thursday night at Kauffman Stadium. The starting pitching matchup features Seth Lugo vs. Michael Soroka.

Both offenses are better than their underlying metrics have shown to this point, which leads to the potential for some fireworks in this game. With one side having a sizable pitching advantage, I view the total going over as much more of a sure thing with one of these teams on Thursday night.

The White Sox have been largely non-existent on offense this season. They rank 27th in wOBA and wRC+. Chicago currently has a fly ball rate of 43.9%, which is the highest in the league, and has just a .216 BABIP to show for it. The Sox are getting the ball in the air plenty but have yet to turn this into productive power.

When looking deeper into the Statcast data, Chicago ranks 13th in hard-hit rate, 20th in barrel% and 21st in average exit velocity. With this profile you would expect this team to be able to score more going forward.

On the mound for Chicago today is Michael Soroka, who made his first start with the club last week after spending the beginning of his career with Atlanta. He threw 32.1 innings across six starts a season ago in what was his first Major League action since 2020.

This first start didn’t go poorly, but it also wasn’t encouraging. Soroka went 5.0 innings, allowing seven hits and four runs. He also failed to strike out a single batter among the 24 he faced.

The underlying numbers support the result of this performance. Soroka’s xFIP of 7.23 mirrors his 7.20 ERA through this one start. His Stuff+ score of 94 and Pitching+ score of 90 are both well below average.

This is just one start in a small sample size, but the results weren’t particularly encouraging.

Soroka’s counterpart on the mound will be 34-year old Seth Lugo. Also in his first year with the club, Lugo’s team debut went much better.

Against Minnesota last Saturday, he pitched six scoreless innings, allowing two hits and one walk while fanning four.

Lugo’s stuff grades as better than Soroka’s through one start but is still below average. He is currently sporting a 97 in Stuff+ and 99 in Pitching+. Last season he allowed an average exit velocity of 90.7, which ranked in the bottom 10% of the league.

The Royals are similar to Chicago in that their offense has underperformed their underlying metrics to this point.

Like Chicago, Kansas City has the second-highest fly-ball rate in the league. They also rank second in exit velocity, first in barrel%, and eighth in hard hit%. However, this has resulted in them only ranking 18th in runs per game, 16th in wRC+ and 16th in wOBA.

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Both of these teams have more offensive firepower than they have shown through the first week of the season. The underlying metrics are good, so I can’t guarantee that it will happen today, but I believe both will get things moving in the right direction at some point soon.

Soroka didn’t look great in his first White Sox appearance, and I’m not looking to back him against a Kansas City team that can hit the ball hard. I also could understand fading Lugo as well, but I would rather play this over from just one side.

I don’t mind taking the game over here, but my favorite bet is the Royals’ team total. At 4.5 runs and BetRivers offering plus money, I’ll be backing Kansas City to go over this number as I think there is unshown potential in the Royals' bats and this pitching matchup does not scare me whatsoever.

Pick: Royals Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (+105 at BetRivers)

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