MLB Best Bets Thursday: Expert Picks Tonight (April 4)
(Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images) Pictured: Seth Lugo
There are only six games on Thursday's MLB slate, but that didn't stop our MLB betting experts from finding the best value on the board.
We've identified a pair of MLB best bets and have picks for Pirates vs. Nationals and White Sox vs. Royals.
So, continue reading as Thursday's MLB best bets and today's expert picks are below.
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 4:05 p.m. ET | ||
| 7:40 p.m. ET | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Pirates vs. Nationals
By Tony Sartori
Washington will hand the ball to right-hander Josiah Gray, who he should be a good fade candidate. Gray got drilled in his first start as he allowed seven runs on eight hits over four innings.
That poor start is just a continuation of his troubled career. Through four seasons, Gray is 17-26 with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP.
His underlying metrics last year suggest that positive regression is unlikely coming to save Gray. In 2023, he ranked in the 34th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, Chase%, K%, BB% and Barrel%.
Those struggles are likely to continue against Pittsburgh, a team Gray possesses a 4.15 ERA against through three career starts. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's lineup has been humming to start the season. The Pirates rank in the top seven of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS.
Subsequently, they have scored six or more runs in five of their first six games.
Pick: Pirates Over 5.5 Runs
White Sox vs. Royals
By John Feltman
The Royals turn to right-hander Seth Lugo after suffering a tough loss to the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday evening. The weather is projected to be chilly after sun down, making this a great spot to fade miserable White Sox lineup.
Lugo generated a 33 CSW% (Called Strikes + Whiffs) in his first start of the year, and now faces a Chicago lineup that's 28th in the league in K-rate. Lugo has averaged over nine strikeouts per nine innings over his career and has finally made the leap from being a reliever to a full-time starter.
The number listed at DraftKings is a juiced 4.5 (-165), but it's easy to envision at least a half dozen strikeouts for Lugo. This is a good bounce back spot for the Royals, but the best play in this game is to take this Lugo strikeouts prop.
Pick: Seth Lugo 5+ Strikeouts
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