World Series Player Props, PrizePicks Plays for Phillies vs Astros Game 6
Logan Riely/Getty Images. Pictured: Jeremy Pena #3 of the Houston Astros.
The World Series could come to a close on Saturday night as the Houston Astros host the Philadelphia Phillies with a 3-2 series lead.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
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Here’s how I would approach Game 6.
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Framber Valdez Over 6 Strikeouts
Framber Valdez gets the start for the Astros in Game 6 and will look to replicate his incredible Game 2 performance. In that outing, Valdez allowed just one run on four hits and struck out nine over 6 1/3 innings.
Through three starts this postseason, the left-hander is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. He has recorded at least six strikeouts in all three of those games.
This strong postseason is a continuation of a terrific regular season. Through 30 starts, Valdez went 16-6 with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP.
His advanced metrics are also spectacular as he boasts a .284 xwOBA, a .227 xBA and a .330 xSLG. Therefore, it is not surprising that Valdez has also dominated in the postseason.
He has recorded at least six strikeouts in 12 of his past 13 starts, including his 10-strikeout performance against the Phillies on October 5. Through 66 career plate appearances against Valdez, this Philadelphia roster possesses a troubling 37.9 K%.
Looking at their projected lineup for Game 6, five of the Phillies’ nine hitters possess a K% north of 21%.
Jeremy Pena Hitter Fantasy Score Under 6.5
We are also going to fade a couple of Astros hitters as they are slated to go against right-hander Zack Wheeler, who has been sensational all year. Through 26 starts in the regular season, Wheeler went 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP.
His advanced metrics are also outstanding as he boasts a .275 xwOBA, a .226 xBA and a .343 xSLG. Therefore, it's also not surprising that Wheeler has dominated in the postseason.
Over five playoff starts, the right-hander possesses a 2.67 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP. Wheeler's worst start of the postseason came against Houston in Game 2, but positive regression should be in order.
The first Houston hitter we are fading is rookie infielder Jeremy Pena. While Pena has been a stud throughout the postseason, now is a good time to sell high.
Pena is due for some regression at the plate, as the larger sample size from the regular season suggests this postseason surge isn't sustainable. Pena produced a mere .300 xwOBA, a .248 xBA and a .397 xSLG in the regular season.
Those metrics back up the regression claim, especially considering that Pena’s splits have made about a 25% jump in the postseason. Additionally, Pena’s regular-season splits took a dip when facing right-handed pitching as he posted a .241 BA, a .402 SLG and a .675 OPS.
Pena went over this total in Game 2, but this contest should be different.
Jose Altuve Hitter Fantasy Score Under 6.5
The other Houston hitter we are fading is Jose Altuve, who has struggled at the plate during the postseason. Through 12 playoff games, Altuve has posted a troubling .185 BA, a .241 SLG and a .482 OPS.
Altuve has gone under this total in eight of 12 playoff games and we should expect another tough outing against Wheeler. Altuve hit well against Wheeler in Game 2, but will he be able to replicate that performance?
Altuve’s splits dropped when facing right-handed pitchers during the regular season as he produced a .285/.487/.860 slash line. While those numbers are still very strong, they are not nearly as good as his splits against left-handed pitching.
We should expect a dominant performance from Wheeler with Philadelphia's backs against the wall. Even if a couple of Houston's hitters are able to get after Wheeler, I'd be shocked Altuve is one based on his track record this postseason and his dip in production when facing right-handed pitching.