The Boston Red Sox host the Philadelphia Phillies on May 12, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Phillies are favored by -146 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Red Sox are +124 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Phillies vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Red Sox Prediction
- Phillies vs Red Sox Pick: Zack Wheeler Over 1.5 Walks Allowed
My Phillies vs Red Sox best bet is on Zack Wheeler to allow over 1.5 walks. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Red Sox Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | -146 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -137 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | +124 |
- Phillies vs Red Sox moneyline: Phillies -146, Red Sox +124
- Phillies vs Red Sox over/under: 8.5 (-100o /-122u)
- Phillies vs Red Sox spread: Phillies -1.5 (+114), Red Sox +1.5 (-137)
Phillies vs Red Sox Probable Pitchers
| RHP Zack Wheeler (PHI) | Stat | RHP Brayan Bello (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 2-4 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.4 |
| 3.12 / 2.40 | ERA / xERA | 7.44 / 6.91 |
| 2.83 / 3.21 | FIP / xFIP | 6.30 / 4.66 |
| 17.6% | K-BB% | 5.1% |
| 50.0% | GB% | 48.3% |
| .233 | BABIP | .355 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 103 | Location+ | 100 |
Phillies vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Phillies have played well since Don Mattingly took over as manager, winning 10 of 13 games. This is the first of a six-game road trip, starting with three games at Fenway Park. Philadelphia opens its series vs. the Red Sox with a clear pitching advantage, sending Zack Wheeler to the mound.
The veteran righty has exceeded expectations since returning from injury, with a 2.40 xERA that is even better than his 3.12 ERA. He's gone at least six innings in two of three starts, allowing a combined six earned runs in those outings.
Given how well the Phillies have played under Mattingly, they have the clear edge in this matchup.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
Since firing Alex Cora, the Red Sox are 7-6, set for a tough spot vs. Wheeler and the Phillies. That's because Brayan Bello is the projected starter, and he's been struggling mightily this year, including a 6.90 xERA.
It's going to be tough for Bello to slow down the likes of Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner in this game.
The Red Sox will likely need to keep this one close and get to the Phillies' bullpen, especially with how well Wheeler has been pitching.
Phillies vs Red Sox Pick, Betting Analysis
Even though I like the Phillies in this game, they're a bit overpriced on the moneyline, so I'm going with a player prop here. I like Zack Wheeler over 1.5 walks because he has an 8.8 BB% on the season, which is his highest since 2017.
Wheeler has issued 3, 2, and 1 walks in his three outings so far.
What's good about this prop is that since Wheeler pitches deep into games, you have a chance to still hit it even if he has strong command.
Pick: Zack Wheeler Over 1.5 Walks Allowed
