Sunday MLB Betting Odds, Preview, Prediction for Yankees vs. Phillies: Domingo Germán, New York Have Strong Matchup (June 13)
G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Domingo German.
Yankees vs. Phillies Odds
|Time||Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.|
The Yankees look to avoid a two-game sweep when they take on one of the best pitchers in the National League in Aaron Nola.
It has not been an ideal start to the 2021 season for the Yankees, who after their walk-off loss on Saturday only sit two games above .500 and 7 1/2 games back of the Rays for first place in the American League East. The Bronx Bombers will send Domingo Germán to the mound in hopes he can keep his solid 2021 season going.
With their win over New York on Saturday, the Phillies are back to .500 and now only four games back of the first-place Mets. Philadelphia will send its ace to the mound in hopes he can help get it above .500.
New York Yankees
The Yankees have been very average against right-handed pitching, posting a .310 wOBA and 98 wRC+ this season. The injury bug has hit New York’s lineup with Luke Voit has been on the IL for most of the season, and also, since they’re playing a Nationals League team, it’s noteworthy that Giancarlo Stanton won’t be in the lineup as a DH.
The Yankees are also struggling against every single type of pitch, as they are in the bottom half of MLB against all of the pitches Nola has in his arsenal. It’s looking like it’ll be a struggle on Sunday afternoon.
The Phillies have been sort of struggling against right-handed pitching this season, putting up a .295 wOBA and 86 wRC+. The main reason why they are struggling is because they aren’t generating a lot of hard contact. Philadelphia ranks 23rd in hard hit % against righties, which is a concern.
The Phillies have really struggled against fastballs this season, ranking 27th with -10.3 weighted fastball runs. However, they’ve had a lot of success against curveballs, as they have 1.8 weighted curveball runs this season. Germán mainly uses a fastball/curveball combination, so it will be interesting to see if they will be able to get to either pitch.
Starting Pitching Matchup
Domingo Germán vs. Aaron Nola
2021 ZIPS Stats (via FanGraphs)
Yankees Starting Pitcher
Domingo Germán, RHP
2021 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Germán has actually been pitching pretty well through his first 11 starts of 2021. He’s posted a 3.71 xERA, a 4.20 xFIP and has been fantastic with his control, as he has a 1.78 BB/9 rate this season.
The reason he’s been so effective is that his curveball has been unhittable. Opponents have produced just a .134 wOBA against it, and Germán has a 39.6% whiff rate on that pitch. His biggest problem, though, has been his fastball, as opponents are drilling it for a .391 wOBA.
However, the matchup should be pretty good for Germán since the Phillies struggle against both right-handed pitching and fastballs.
Phillies Starting Pitcher
Aaron Nola, RHP
2021 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Nola has once agains been one of the Phillies’ best pitchers, posting a 3.65 xERA and 3.58 xFIP so far this season. Last season, Nola made a stronger commitment to utilizing his off-speed pitches, which has drastically increased his effectiveness.
However, he’s gone back to his fastball more in 2021, throwing it more than 38% of the time compared to 25.3% in 2020. His effectiveness on it has dropped off as opponents are only hitting .273 with a .354 wOBA this season against his fastball.
Nola is still using his off-speed pitches well, as his curveball and changeup are still holding opponents under a .260 xwOBA. Since the Yankees have virtually struggled against every off-speed pitch, Nola should have a good matchup.
Even though the Yankees have had struggles with their offense and starting pitching, their bullpen has been lights out. New York has a 3.30 ERA and 3.83 xFIP as a group, which are both in the top five of baseball. The Phillies’ bullpen, on the other hand, has been average, posting a 4.47 ERA and 4.17 xFIP, so New York will have the advantage in the later innings.
Given the great matchup Germán has against the Phillies lineup, which has been struggling against right handed pitching, combined with the fact that the Yankees bullpen has been lights out, I think there is some value on the Phillies Team Total Under 4.5 runs at -130 at DraftKings.
Pick: Phillies — Team Total Under 4.5 (-130)
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