Yankees vs. Rays Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value On Plus-Money Side of Over/Under This Thursday (May 26)
Jim Rogash/Getty Images. Pictured: Yankees LHP Nestor Cortes
- Potent offenses plus unreliable depth on one side of the pitching matchup equals potential value on the total.
- Find our analyst's picks and predictions based on Yankees vs. Rays odds for this Thursday night MLB matchup below.
Yankees vs. Rays Odds
|Time||6:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds via WynnBET. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The New York Yankees pull into Tampa Bay to open a four game series against the second-place Rays.
Both teams are 6-4 over their last 10 games and seem to be firing on all cylinders, so this series should have a playoff atmosphere as the Rays look to make up ground in the AL East race.
Two lefties square off in Thursday night’s pitching matchup as Ryan Yarbrough gets the call for the Rays and Nestor Cortes takes the mound for the Yankees.
New York Yankees
The Yankees are one of the MLB’s best road offenses. On the road is actually where they have their stronger offensive split so far in 2022: The Yankees have a 136 team wRC+ on the road this month, good for fourth in the league.
Getting more granular, the Yankees do seem to have more trouble with lefties on the road as they have a 98 team wRC+ against them on the road in May. However, that is still good for 11th in MLB, which puts them ahead of the majority of teams.
Cortes gets the ball in Game 1, and statistically, he’s been the Yankees ace this season. He also brings a 1.64 ERA and a 2.71 FIP across 22 road innings into Thursday’s start. He’s been excellent in all situations this season.
Tampa Bay Rays
Speaking of excellence, the Rays have been excellent at home so far this season, but they are especially potent against left-handed pitchers at home. So far, the Rays lead MLB in team wRC+ against lefties at home in May.
However, it’s the Rays bullpen that has been surprisingly leaky over the past two weeks. This could be the reason they are having Yarbrough take the start as opposed to using him as the bulk pitcher. Perhaps a more traditional approach will reset their bullpen.
Yarbrough has experienced quite a variance in terms of numbers at home, therefore it’s hard to pin down exactly what to expect. The one thing that has been consistent is that he does give up runs at home. His career home ERA and 3.94 home FIP are strong indicators he is prone to being scored on at home.
Considering the potency of both offenses and Yarbrough’s unreliability in terms of the depth he can give the Rays, the over has the most appeal — especially at 7.5 (+100).
While Cortes has pitched well this season, he may be due for a slight regression, especially against a Rays offense that handles LHP well at home.
The Rays pen has also been struggling while the Yankees offense hammers RHP on the road, especially this month, so 7.5 doesn’t seem too high of a hurdle to clear.
I like the over up to 8.
Pick: Over 7.5 (+100)