Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Monday, September 11
Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds
The Yankees and Red Sox both find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, but there remains a slim chance for both to get back in a contentious race for the AL wild card.
Will Kutter Crawford shut the door on New York like he did earlier in the season, or might the Yankees have a chance at pulling the upset here on the road?
Let's break it all down in our Yankees vs. Red Sox preview and prediction.
At the start of the season, it sure looked like Clarke Schmidt's days in the Yankees rotation were numbered. He couldn't stop with the walks and home runs which led many to call for him to be moved to the bullpen.
Well, Schmidt has quietly improved his stock since then, pitching to an xBA right around .230 in his past four starts. He's also brought his ground ball rate up to 50% or better in his last two outings, and in two of his last three he's gone without a home run or walk allowed.
One of Schmidt's great starts over the last few weeks came against the Red Sox, when he struck out eight over 5 2/3 frames of two-run ball. He's now pitched to a 2.87 ERA against the Red Sox in 15 2/3 innings this season.
On the offensive side of things, it's looking bleak once more for New York. This team owns just an 86 wRC+ in the past two weeks and just lost Jasson Dominguez to a torn UCL. He was the lone bright spot aside from Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres, putting this lineup in peril.
It's worth noting, though, that the Yankees' walk rate during that time still stands at 10.8% and their isolated power is a beefy .194.
The Red Sox haven't really hit the ball lately either. They're 22nd in the league with a 90 wRC+ over the last 14 days, sporting poor strikeout and walk numbers with a low .157 ISO. They've managed to hit just .249 despite a .313 BABIP as well, putting into question just how much they can get done on Monday.
The wheels have also started to fall off for Kutter Crawford, who had been cruising heading into the summer. While he was able to pitch around some bad outings in months past, he's now strung two disasters together with 11 earned runs against him over the last two games in just 6 1/3 innings. During those two outings, he's allowed 10 hits and walked five.
He did manage to pitch to a .153 xBA against the Yankees when he saw them nearly a month ago, and aside from a nightmare on August 30th his expected stats have been stable over the last month and a half. With that said, it's simply the story of Crawford's season that his results haven't caught his expected numbers.
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Betting Pick & Prediction
I'm fully cognizant of the fact that Crawford shut down the Yankees just about a month ago, but the road underdogs are still calling my name here.
New York ranks ninth in fastball run value this year and theoretically matches up quite well with a fastball-heavy pitcher in Crawford. Furthermore, the Yankees' walk rate is better than it was back when they faced the Red Sox righty the first time, and they're still sporting an ISO near .200 which is unheard of for a team producing runs in such a flat manner.
I think the walks and home runs will continue to pile up for Crawford, and I have no faith in his offense. While I'd say that about the Red Sox against just about any pitcher, I do think Schmidt has made some significant strides and the fact that he can lean on a Boston team doing such a bad job of getting hits despite some relatively good fortune makes me love the plus money here even more.
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