Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez Odds
| Strickland Odds | +225 |
| Hernandez Odds | -278 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (-180/+140) |
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, Texas |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Houston odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Houston with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez prediction for UFC Houston on Saturday, February 21, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, for a 14-fight card featuring an important matchup in the middleweight division between No. 3 contender Sean Strickland and No. 4-ranked Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez.
Strickland, the former middleweight champion, enters his tenth career — and eighth consecutive — UFC main event or five-round fight. He owns a 6-3 record in those contests, but eight of nine bouts have reached a decision.
Hernandez enters his first UFC main event amid an eight-fight winning streak, including six finishes. He seemingly has an endless gas tank and is a bigger problem for opponents in five-round fights than in three-round fights.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Houston main event on Saturday and use those factors to bet on these middleweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 10:45 p.m. ET on Saturday night.
Here's my Strickland vs. Hernandez pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Strickland | Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 29-7 | 15-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 16:03 | 10:27 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/27/1991 | 10/18/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.95 | 4.59 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 62% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.57 | 2.53 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 49% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.73 | 6.46 |
| TD Acc | 64% | 48% |
| TD Def | 76% | 68% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 1.8 |
While Sean Strickland seemingly has the tools — including sturdy takedown defense (76%), solid getups, and excellent cardio — to stay competitive in a fight with "Fluffy" Hernandez, I'm not sure that he has enough power to make Hernandez respect him and keep the fight at striking range.
Strickland prefers an outside kickboxing match, where he can pick away at opponents with rangefinders, including his jab and teep kick, and both outlast and outwork them in a sparring-style fight.
Hernandez typically starts slow to measure distance — because he's relatively weak to the body and capable of getting hurt with strikes when reckless — but once he gets his hands on opponents, he puts them through the washing machine with constant scrambling and relentless mat returns; Hernandez always beats his opponents to the next position.
He is the middleweight's answer to Merab Dvalishvili — averaging 14.6 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance while controlling 82% of grappling time.
Strickland isn't typically outmatched in the grappling (62% control rate). Still, he also hasn't faced a wrestler of Fluffy's caliber or tenacity — and being forced to constantly anti-grapple will both shut down his offense and create openings for Hernandez to land strikes.
In fact, my biggest takeaway from Fluffy's main event wins was both the improvements in and relentlessness of his striking; when he wasn't grappling, he was walking forward on Roman Dolidze and Michel Pereira and sitting down on his punches.
Strickland is the better striker by the numbers (+1.3 to +0.3 differential per minute). Still, I actually expect Hernandez to land the more noticeably damaging shots, as Strickland drops his hands to defend against takedowns.
Strickland has seemed flat in his recent performances — and Hernandez will actually force him to fight. Still, unless he's consistently denying or getting up from takedowns and getting back to striking range, I'd expect Strickland's offense to get muted by Hernandez's pressure.
There are difficult matchups for Hernandez at middleweight, but I don't believe that Strickland has the power to discourage his opponent from pressing forward and implementing his wrestling-heavy style.
His best chance to win a round — or the fight — should come in Round 1, before Hernandez fully presses down on the gas pedal. If his moneyline moves in at all, I'd take the favorite live after five minutes.
Strickland vs. Hernandez Pick, Prediction
I projected Anthony Hernandez to win this fight nearly 75% of the time, and I would bet his moneyline up to -275 or use him as a parlay piece up to -300. His moneyline opened closer to -245 but has steadily increased toward my price target.
I align with the market odds for the fight to reach a decision, setting the line at -135, compared to a listed range of -140 to reach a decision and +120 to end inside the distance.
As a result, I also don't project value on any winning-method props for this matchup. And with his round props decreasing in odds as you progress from Round 1 to 5 — when those typically increase for each round in other fights — it shows that the books have likely removed the value from those markets; he was +1000 to defeat Dolidze in Round 4 and +1600 to beat Pereira in Round 5.
However, as stated above, you can search for a live bet on Hernandez anytime after Round 1.
Sean's Picks: Anthony Hernandez (-275) at DraftKings | Anthony Hernandez Live Anytime after Round 1
