Read our UFC Houston predictions for this live event on Saturday from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. As is the new normal, the prelims kick off at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with a 9:00 p.m. main card.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 14-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Houston Moneyline Projections
UFC Houston Prop Projections
Takedown Propaganza
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:15 p.m. ET for First Fight
While I'm supposed to give a "Best Bet" singular in this space, I'm going to break that entirely arbitrary rule this week. That's because my favorites bets this week are a few fighter takedown props that I find particularly interesting. I'll go through them in chronological order based on their placement on the card.
Jordan Leavitt Under 1.5 Takedowns -150
If forced to pick just one bet, this would be it. The second fight of the night features undefeated prospect Yadier del Valle as a considerable favorite against Jordan Leavitt.
As we discussed on the podcast this week, Leavitt is a below-average athlete with solid jiu-jitsu but fairly limited wrestling, who will also likely be outclassed on the feet. It's exceptionally difficult to land takedowns after being knocked out, which might be the biggest factor here.
Crucially, del Valle is also an elite judoka who is probably likelier to get on top if they do grapple. Plus, with the prop at 1.5, we get a bit of wiggle room if Leavitt stumbles into one.
I'd play this one down to -200 should we see some movement.
Michel Pereira Over 0.5 Takedowns +150
The fight between Michel Pereira and Zach Reese is an interesting one from a grappling perspective.
Pereira has been more of a striker in his UFC run, but is almost certainly the better wrestler if not overall grappler. He's often a guy more concerned with putting on a show than he is winning fights — but that could change now that he's dropped three straight.
Reese is a dangerous submission fighter, but he's somewhat comfortable accepting takedowns and looking to work off his back.
Coupled with Pereira (hopefully) looking to take the safest route to a victory, and we should see "Demolidor" at least mix in an occasional takedown, and we only need one at plus-money to cover the line. I'd bet this to +110.
Geoff Neal Over 0.5 Takedowns +250
Sean and I were at odds on the side in the UFC Houston co-main event between Neal and Uros Medic. However, I thought Sean made a great point: Neal has a golden opportunity to press his sporadically used wrestling edge in this fight.
He averages roughly half a takedown per 15 minutes, and typically at least attempts to mix them in against dangerous strikers. That certainly describes Medic, who has scored knockouts in all six of his UFC wins.
Medic was taken down seven times by Myktybek Orolbai and taken down once and immediately submitted by Jalin Turner in his only previous bouts against grapplers.
While Neal is less proactive with his wrestling than those fighters, at +250 odds, we don't need much. My limit on this one is +180 if it happens to drop.
Plus, this bet serves as a very effective hedge against my other pick in this fight, which I broke down in my full preview.
Picks (All via DraftKings):
- Jordan Leavitt Under 1.5 Takedowns -150 (0.75u)
- Michel Pereira Over 0.5 Takedowns +150 (0.5u)
- Geoff Neal Over 0.5 Takedowns +250 (0.5u)
Ante Delija vs. Serghei Spivac
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
My colleague, Billy Ward, discussed the unique luck case for Ante Delija in his weekly column; Delija seemingly won his last fight via standing TKO against Waldo Cortes-Acosta, then adrenaline dumped while celebrating with his corner, before the replay official overturned the result (due to an eye poke) and the fight was mistakenly restarted.
Serghei Spivac presents a similar binary matchup to Delija's UFC debut, against Marcin Tybura, a slow, plodding grappler who will eat shots (50% striking defense) as he bullies his way into the clinch and looks to consolidate a takedown.
Spivac likely has better cardio than Delija in an extended fight, but I'd expect Delija to hurt him early and often — with superior boxing technique and substantially quicker hands — and to make up for the overturned first-round finish in his last bout.
I projected Delija as a near -165 favorite, and I would bet his moneyline up to around -150. Moreover, I would consider taking his odds to win by Round 1 KO/TKO, down to +250; it represents a decent chunk of his win condition.
