Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC Mexico (Saturday, February 28)

Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh Odds

Check out the Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh prediction for UFC Mexico on Saturday, February 28, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

On Saturday, the UFC returns to Arena CDMX or the Mexico City Arena in Mexico City, Mexico for a 13-fight card, featuring an important showdown in the flyweight division between former two-time champion and current no—6 contender Brandon Moreno, and rising prospect Lone'er Kavanagh.

Saturday will mark the 10th main event or five-round fight for Moreno in the UFC; he also has additional five-round experience from the regional scene.

Conversely, Kavanagh, who is taking the bout on short notice in place of Asu Almabayev, could see championship rounds for the first time in his career, on short notice, at 7,400 feet of elevation in Mexico City.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Mexico City Main Event on Saturday and use those factors to bet on these flyweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 10:45 p.m. ET (7:45 p.m. PT) on Saturday evening.

Here's my Moreno vs. Kavanagh pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Despite the extreme elevation in Mexico City, which raises concerns that fighters will be finished more frequently in the later rounds due to fatigue, that has not proven to be the case in recent data.

Across the past 78 fights in Mexico City, we have seen just a 32% finish rate (25 finishes), with 14 in Round 1, seven in Round 2, three in Round 3, and one in Round 5.

Still, the situational spot is far less than ideal for Kavanagh; taking his first five-round fight, on short notice at elevation, against a former champion with extensive experience fighting both in five-round main events and at elevation.

In fact, cardio could be the most reliable aspect of Moreno's game at this stage of his career, and he should have the better gas tank if this fight extends into the championship rounds.

Still, Moreno has seemed both like and a lesser version of his prior self in recent bouts, staying patient and complacent, relying on distance striking rather than proactively wrestling, forcing a pace, and giving his opponents different looks. For his career, Moreno has averaged 1.5 takedowns per five minutes at distance, but that rate has fallen to 0.61 in his past three fights and 0.75 in his past four.

Kavanagh owns a higher control rate (78% to 61%) and owns a superior significant strike differential (+0.6 to +0.3) than Moreno, albeit in a much smaller UFC sample (19 fights vs. 3) against lesser competition.

And both his cardio and durability remain unproven; Kavanagh dominated the first round against Charles Johnson in his last outing, moved to a significant favorite after round 1, but then slowed and got KO'ed in round 2.

Still, Moreno was also finished by Tatsuro Taira in his last fight (the first finish loss of his career) after getting outstruk at distance by Steve Erceg in a win; his motivation for and dedication to the sport remain in question when he isn't in title contention; there is a non-zero chance that this could quietly be Moreno's retirement fight, particularly in a loss.

At 32, Moreno is on the wrong side of the divisional age curve for the 125-pound division (average age of 31), whereas the 26-year-old Kavanagh is still ascending.

The stylistic switch-up could pose an early challenge; Moreno was preparing for a wrestler in Almabayev, but will need to adjust to a faster, more dynamic striker in Kavanagh.

That speed advantage should pose a problem and allow Kavanagh to secure early minutes. Still, I'd expect Moreno to find his moments and work his way back into the bout in the middle rounds, thanks to superior fight IQ and cardio.

Moreno is both the taller and longer man (1" taller, 3" reach advantage), which should help the effectiveness of his jab. Still, the younger Kavangh's athleticism and quickness should give the Englishman the striking edge when both men are fresh.

There's also the chance that he shows an improved effort, following the recent letdown (despite dominating the first round against Johnson) as a -250 favorite in his last bout.

Before that knockout loss, many considered Kavanagh among the top prospects in the sport, and a likely future title challenger if not champion. He was -900 against Johnson after five minutes, until he got caught.

The question remains what led to that finish, and whether he ate an attritional shot (body shot or leg kick) that halted his movement, or whether the limited grappling drained his cardio.

Kavanagh was in training camp, scheduled to face Bruno Silva in a couple of weeks. While the fight with Moreno is short notice, it's not as though he's taking this getting off the couch; he was in the midst of a training camp following his first career loss, and unless his cardio betrays him again, I suspect we see a much more sustained performance from him on Saturday.

Still, despite the projected edge and the anticipated early-round success for Kavanagh, with the possibility of coming back on Moreno live during the fight, the extreme difficulty of the underdog spot makes me cautious.

Moreno vs. Kavanagh Pick, Prediction

I projected Brandon Moreno as a 57.4% favorite in this fight (-135 implied odds) and as a result, I show a positive edge on the underdog, Lone'er Kavanagh, down to around +146 (40.5% implied) at a two percent edge compared to my projected line.

I also show a lean to the Over 4.5 rounds or goes to decision prop, setting the line for that market at -126, compared to listed odds of -118.

And as a result, I show correlated value on Kavanagh to win by decision (projected +337, listed +380).

While I would take a pre-fight position on the underdog, monitor his cardio and look to live bet Moreno anytime after Round 1, with the best spot likely coming at some point after Round 2.

Ideally, you would have plus money on both sides – or at minimum a freroll on Kavanagh – after ten minutes.

Sean's Picks: Lone'er Kavanagh +180 (BetMGM) | Brandon Moreno Live Anytime after Round 1

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