Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic Odds
| Neal Odds | -218 |
| Medic Odds | +180 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+150/-195) |
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston Texas |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Houston odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Houston with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic prediction for UFC Houston on Saturday, February 21, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
The UFC Houston main event features two fighters outside of the welterweight division's top ten, but it might be the card's most fun fight. Uros Medic has finished all 12 of his career wins, while Houston-Native Geoff Neal has five knockouts in eight UFC victories. It's also an intriguing stylistic matchup for reasons we'll discuss below, and one that hardcore striking fans will likely appreciate for as long as it lasts.
Here's my Neal vs. Medic pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Neal | Medic | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-7 | 12-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:52 | 4:15 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 71" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 8/28/1990 | 4/25/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.05 | 5.53 |
| SS Accuracy | 51% | 60% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.48 | 3.46 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.54 | 0.35 |
| TD Acc | 45% | 50% |
| TD Def | 87% | 55% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0 |
There are a couple of factors that are pushing me in the opposite direction in this fight.
Before I dive into what those are, it's important to have some background on both men in the UFC Houston co-main event. Geoff Neal has carved out a role as a Neil Magny-esque gatekeeper in the welterweight division, with his last three losses coming to top-five fighters in Carlos Prates, Ian Garry, and Shavkhat Rakhmonov (who was recently removed from the official rankings due to inactivity but was previously top-five).
When faced with lesser opposition — Santiago Ponzinibbio, Vicente Luque, late-career Rafael dos Anjos — he's acquitted himself well, with no losses to anyone outside of the top 16 (based on Tapology rankings) at the time.
He's a hard-swinging southpaw with solid takedown defense, who is typically happy to trade strikes 1-for-1 and rely on his power to get the best of otherwise-equal exchanges. Both of those tendencies explain why more defensively sound opponents (Garry) as well as more powerful ones (Prates) have been a problem for Neal.
Medic fits both of those categories to various extents, with an emphasis on the power portion. All six of his UFC wins have come via knockout, with four of those in the first round. He started his UFC run at lightweight, but his power has clearly played up to welterweight, with four of those knockouts coming in the larger division.
He's been solid defensively overall, with a 56% significant strike defense rate while out-landing his opponents by more than two significant strikes per minute. The critical exception to that rule has been facing fellow lefties, where he's historically struggled.
"The Doctor" was finished by dedicated southpaws Punahele Soriano and Jalin Turner, and was knocked down by the stance-switching Matthew Semelsberger when Semelsberger was fighting out of a southpaw stance. That's not a great sign in this lefty-on-lefty matchup, which brings me to one of the dilemmas I'm faced with in handicapping this fight.
At face value, those signs all strongly favor Neal. However, while Neal stands southpaw, he doesn't fight like a typical southpaw. I'd wager that Neal is actually right-handed in his regular life, and he uses far more lead-hand jabs and hooks than most southpaws. Typically, in opposite-stance matchups, the goal is to be as rear-hand dominant as possible, circling outside of the opponent's front foot in order to set up rear-hand power shots. That's not Neal's usual approach.
Plus, Neal's only UFC matchup against a southpaw was his 90-second win over RDA (which ended with a dos Anjos injury), which doesn't tell us much about his own defense in same-side pairings.
All of that mitigates my concern about Medic's southpaw struggles.
The other factor that I'm grappling with is Neal's recent form. He's gone 1-3 across his last four, with the only win coming against dos Anjos. Neal's leg kicks in that fight contributed somewhat to the injury, so it wasn't a total fluke, but it also doesn't give us much information. Level of opposition probably explains those results more than an athletic decline from a 35-year-old Neal, but it's still somewhat noteworthy.
Neal vs. Medic Pick, Prediction
With all of that said, I went into research for this bout expecting the odds to be much closer, as my own thoughts have this one as close to a pick 'em. Neal is a deserving favorite thanks to his more proven record in extended fights, but the first half or so of the fight should be fairly even.
Given the underdog price point on Medic, that makes him the value side here. However, I don't see him winning a decision. While a knockout is overwhelmingly more likely than a submission, the odds are virtually identical (+215 vs. +225) between a knockout or a finish win, so I'll sacrifice the 10 points on the line to cover myself in case of a club and sub.
Billy's Pick: Uros Medic Inside the Distance +215
