Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal Odds
| Njokuani Odds | +114 |
| Leal Odds | -135 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+120/-154) |
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston Texas |
| Bout Time | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Houston odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Houston with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal prediction for UFC Houston on Saturday, February 21, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
A welterweight bout between Chidi Njokuani and Carlos Leal should provide fireworks prior to the main card beginning on Saturday. Each man is looking to rebound from an early first-round loss in July of last year, but both had displayed an ability to finish fights in their favor before their most recent defeat. Despite Leal’s 1-2 record in the UFC, he opened as a substantial favorite in this spot, but bettors have swung the line towards Njokuani as oddsmakers continue to respond to money pouring in on the underdog. I will avoid picking a side; instead, I’ll opt to create a mini-parlay that maximizes value in what is undoubtedly a highly volatile matchup.
Here's my Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Njokuani | Leal | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 25-11 | 22-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:43 | 6:49 |
| Height | 6'3" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 80" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/31/1988 | 5/4/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.72 | 9.57 |
| SS Accuracy | 62% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.64 | 7.61 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 0 | 0.75 |
| TD Acc | NA | 25% |
| TD Def | 73% | 90% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0 |
It’s no surprise the more technical striker and bigger man has garnered a majority of the betting action this week leading up to this clash. Njokuani will enjoy a six-inch reach advantage, and stylistically he possesses all of the Muay Thai skills to exploit Leal’s defensive lapses with straight shots as Leal enters the pocket.
Distance management will be a key element to Njokuani’s gameplan, as it is in all his welterweight fights given his size advantage over the majority of the division. It is worth noting that prior to entering the UFC, Leal had just two defeats to his record over the entirety of 2015 through 2024, and both came against Sadibou Sy. Sy has some similar stylistic traits to Njokuani and measures an identical 6’3” with an 80-inch reach.
Leal’s striking is dynamic, powerful, and aggressive. He absolutely has the tools to test the durability of Njokuani at any point in this bout if he can walk through the fire on his entries. Njokuani has five knockout losses on his record, and at age 37, there is a fragile nature to his defense if he cannot keep his opponent at a safe distance.
If Leal can put Njokuani on his back foot, his 65% implied odds as a favorite when this line opened will feel more than reasonable. Interestingly, Njokuani is very dangerous in the clinch, which was ultimately the deciding factor to my position in this fight. Leal will either be forced to turn this into a close-range brawl or stay at range and play to Njokuani's strengths. Either way, Njokuani will have his opportunities to unleash offense in the clinch if he can avoid getting put on his back from a takedown.
Leal has made a career of turning fights into high-pressure affairs, and there is ample evidence of Njokuani not being able to survive in that type of an environment. Five of Njokuani's last seven losses ended within two rounds.
Njokuani vs. Leal Pick, Prediction
Njokuani does have a few submission losses to his record, including one at the hands of Jake Matthews is his last appearance, but Leal has not secured a submission victory since 2019 against a lower-level MMA opponent. The first leg of my parlay is for this fight to finish by KO/TKO.
The best price for under 1.5 rounds is -150, but by committing to this bout ending by KO/TKO, we can buy ourselves another 2 to 2.5 minutes. Playing these two angles together at any price better than -200 is a screaming value despite the price tag.
Ultimately, I am comfortable combining under 9.5 minutes and fight to end by KO/TKO/DQ on DraftKings. Let’s accept the juice at -165, with the perspective that no matter how this fight plays out, both fighters will be in constant danger that will translate to a knockout at an extremely high clip within the first two rounds.
John's Pick: Under 9.5 minutes + fight ends by KO/TKO/DQ same-game parlay -165 (Draftkings)
