Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez Odds
| Vera Odds | +235 |
| Martinez Odds | -290 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-425/+300) |
| Location | Arena CDMX, Mexico city, Mexico |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Mexicoodds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Mexico with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez prediction for UFC Mexico on Saturday, February 28, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
After stepping up on short notice in his last fight to defeat a ranked opponent for the first time, Mexico's David Martinez now gets his first top-ten opponent in #9-ranked Marlon "Chito" Vera. It's been an extremely fast rise for Martinez, who is making just his third UFC walk, but he's passed each preceding test with flying colors. Chito has dropped four of his last five, but all against top competition, and the former title challenger is still just 33 years old. That makes this an important bout for Martinez, who could find himself in the title picture or fighting to keep a ranked position, depending on how this fight goes.
Here's my Vera vs. Martinez pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Vera | Martinez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-11-1 | 13-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:33 | 11:33 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 67" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/2/1992 | 8/3/1998 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.25 | 4.85 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.37 | 2.95 |
| SS Defense | 49% | 68% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.49 | 0 |
| TD Acc | 39% | 0% |
| TD Def | 72% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 0 |
David Martinez has quickly made himself into a staple of the UFC's Mexico (or Mexican-inspired) cards, with his debut coming in Mexico City in 2025 before facing Rob Font at UFC Noche in September. Having won both those matchups, he's now elevated to the co-main event slot for his second appearance in his hometown.
Martinez is a fascinating figure both inside and out of the cage. He's a practicing orthopedic surgeon — which seems like a tough day job for someone as likely to break his hands as a UFC fighter — and also half of the first brother/sister duo to compete in the UFC, as his sister Melissa preceded him to the Octagon.
He's perhaps even more interesting as a fighter, thanks to his unique twist on a Karate style. Coming from a family of Karatekas, Martinez trained in the sport from an extremely young age before transitioning to MMA. While he fights with some of the typical trappings of that style — a wide stance, reliance on counter strikes — he's also adapted his game to mixed martial arts competition far better than most fighters with a similar background.
The limitations of Karate (and similar traditional martial arts like Taekwondo) are why we haven't seen many fighters from those backgrounds succeed at high levels despite the widespread practice of those arts globally. The biggest issue is their approach to defense. Sport Karate/TKD typically doesn't allow punches to the face, which leads to fighters holding their hands low. This isn't a death sentence for MMA, but it forces those fighters to rely on head movement rather than blocking, which requires almost preternatural reflexes and range management as we see from fighters like Michael Page, Steven Thompson, or Lyoto Machida.
That is both risky and also not something that ages well, as reflexes are one of the first skills to decline. However, Martinez fights behind a high guard the majority of the time, though he does have a tendency to drop his hands on kicks and when exiting counters. It hasn't caught up to him yet, though, with a 68% significant strike defense rate.
The other issue is that the low, wide Karate stance is generally vulnerable to takedowns, since it comes from a sport without them. Martinez solves this as well, primarily by never settling in one place long enough for opponents to line up strong takedown attempts. Opponents have officially gone 0-for-8 on takedowns against him between the UFC and Contender Series.
Offensively, he throws everything at 100%, with a heavy reliance on hard kicks to all three levels. He has knockouts in ten of his 13 professional wins, and has a rare combination of both volume and one-shot power that should see his knockout number continue to rise.
Whether he can find one against Vera is a big question. "Chito" has yet to be stopped in 35 professional fights, despite absorbing more than 200 significant strikes on two separate occasions. However, he was knocked down for the first time in the UFC by Deiveson Figueiredo two fights ago, so perhaps the damage is adding up.
He's a much more patient fighter than Martinez, typically taking the first round off before building as the fight continues. That's proven to be a big problem for him since switching back to three-round fights, and he's won the first round just once in his last ten contests (including two fights he eventually won by knockout).
That patience will challenge Martinez to be a bit more proactive on the feet, as he typically does his best work while countering. I'm not especially concerned about his ability to do so, but it will force him out of his comfort zone to an extent.
Vera vs. Martinez Pick, Prediction
The other interesting dynamic here is cardio. Vera has plenty of five-round experience, and his patient style usually plays well the longer the fight goes. On the other hand, Martinez has a high-energy style thanks to his constant movement and hard strikes, which could fade in extended fights.
He acquitted himself well over 15 minutes against Rob Font last time, with his biggest moment coming in the final seconds of the fight. However, this fight is 7,000 feet above sea level in Mexico City. Of course, that's where Martinez lives and trains, so it's probably not as much of an issue as it would be otherwise. Still, his only previous fights in his hometown have ended early, so it's an angle to consider.
Due to that, I'm looking to invest in Martinez early, while potentially grabbing "Chito" live. Martinez is -165 on the first round point spread via DraftKings, which requires the judges to award him the round unanimously or a first-round finish. That feels like a strong bet for almost anyone against Vera, given his track record in opening frames.
On top of that, I'm also taking a sprinkle on Martinez to win the fight inside the distance at +600. Vera's durability seems to be waning slightly, and Martinez is a big hitter who should also be incentivized to end things early, if possible.
Billy's Picks: Martinez Round 1 -1.5 -165 | Martinez Inside the Distance +600 (Both DraftKings)
