The UFC's middleweight division is in need of challengers for the newly crowned Khamzat Chimaev, who is yet to be booked for his first title defense. One of those challengers could come from the UFC Houston main event, where former champion Sean Strickland looks to keep his top-five ranking against Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez, who has won eight straight against increasingly difficult competition.
The 13-fight card starts at 5:00 p.m. ET on Saturday and airs on Paramount+.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Houston odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Houston Predictions & Luck Ratings
Anthony Hernandez (-285) vs. Sean Strickland (+230)
Sean Strickland fights are always interesting to examine through a "luck" lens, thanks to his habit of finding himself in reasonably close decisions. Since winning the middleweight belt from Israel Adesanya via decision, he's had three straight fights hit the judges, with a 1-2 overall record and two of those decisions split.
Broadly speaking, he has received roughly the results he deserves, with a 2-2 record in split decisions since 2022, a period of nine total fights. However, it makes him somewhat appealing as a big underdog, since he's able to keep fights close for the most part.
Anthony Hernandez tends to produce more definitive results, with six of the eight wins on his current streak coming via finishes, with only one round lost between his two decision victories. He gets there via his high-pace grappling, averaging nearly 6.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and showing no sign of slowing down in his previous five-round fights.
Strickland has solid overall takedown defense, but has mostly fought fellow strikers in recent memory. He was taken down six times in his first fight against Dricus du Plessis, but was only controlled for just over two minutes total across those six trips to the mat. Of course, DDP is primarily a striker, so it will certainly be a different challenge this time around.
All things considered, this line is about right, though I'm interested in Strickland's +9.5 point spread line at just -120 odds. That would require him to win a single round on each judge's card to cover, which feels relatively likely, while also surviving to the end of the fight.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Ante Delija (-155) vs. Serghei Spivac (+130)
This is another unique case from a luck standpoint, as Ante Delija's most recent UFC appearance was a situation I've never seen before in an MMA fight.
In the first round of his fight against Waldo-Cortes Acosta, Delija landed a big punch along the fence, then followed up with a flurry and seemingly won via standing TKO. However, Cortes-Acosta claimed it was an eye poke and not a punch that caused him to shell up. The replay official agreed with Cortes-Acosta's take, and instead of calling the fight a no contest, as one would expect, restarted the fight.
Delija had been celebrating in the cage with his teammates and was now asked to restart the fight. Cortes-Acosta almost immediately knocked him out, which is now what's on the official record.
I'm willing to essentially ignore that official result, as being asked to restart a fight you had already been celebrating is an extremely tough position for a fighter. Delija had also been mostly winning prior to the eye poke, a good sign against Cortes-Acosta, who has a recent win over Spivac.
While I worry about Delija's somewhat quick turnaround after being knocked out in November, Spivac isn't much of a power puncher (0 UFC knockdowns) making this a solid return opponent. The best current odds on Delija are -150 at BetMGM, which I'm jumping on now. That line would be much longer if his last fight was counted as a win.
Verdict: Delija Undervalued
Joselyne Edwards (-325) vs. Nora Cornolle (+260)
Joselyne Edwards comes into this fight on a three-fight winning streak, compared to just a 2-2 record over the last four for her opponent, Nora Cornolle.
However, this line seems awfully wide, considering that before those streaks, Cornolle picked up a win over Edwards. That fight was also the UFC debut for Cornolle — although it was in her native France — so if anything, we'd expect more progression from the former kickboxer as she gets deeper into her MMA career.
On top of that, both losses for Cornolle in the interim were reasonably close decisions, with one of the two a split. That makes it hard for me to justify the line movement compared to the first meeting of these women, since Cornolle was just +100 or so then, and won the fight.
With the vast majority of early Tapology predictions siding with the younger Edwards, there's a good chance we get a better line later in the week. Additionally, Cornolle's point spread would be interesting at even money or better, since she's never been finished and has a solid chance of winning at least one round, but we'll see what odds we get when those become available later on. For those reasons, I'm not in a rush to get this bet down, but I will have some exposure to Cornolle very soon.
Verdict: Cornolle Undervalued
