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Drakkar Klose vs. Rafa Garcia UFC 277 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Lightweights Bound to Go to Decision? (Saturday, July 30)

Drakkar Klose vs. Rafa Garcia UFC 277 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Lightweights Bound to Go to Decision? (Saturday, July 30) article feature image
Credit:

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC lightweight Rafa Garcia

Klose vs. Garcia Odds

Klose Odds
-215
Garcia Odds
+185
Over/Under
2.5 (-210 / +170)
Venue
American Airlines Center (Dallas)
Time
Approx. 8 p.m. ET
Channel
ABC and ESPN
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.

Two lightweights who have experienced some recent success meet on Saturday’s UFC 277 preliminary card with Drakkar Klose vs. Rafa Garcia.

Klose (12-2-1), who’s on a 4-1 run, is a sizable favorite over late replacement Rafa Garcia (14-2), who looks for his third straight win.

With oddsmakers expecting this fight to go the distance, where’s the value in betting this ABC-televised matchup? Let’s dive in.

Tale of the Tape

 

Klose Garcia
Record 12-2-1 14-2
Avg. Fight Time 12:42 13:43
Height 5’9″ 5’7″
Weight (pounds) 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach (inches) 70″ 70″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 3/9/1988 8/5/1994
Sig Strikes Per Min 4.42 3.54
SS Accuracy 55% 36%
SS Absorbed Per Min 3.61 4.94
SS Defense 53% 54%
Take Down Avg. 1.77 4.10
TD Acc 33% 48%
TD Def 68% 72%
Submission Avg 0.0 0.6

Klose is the more technical fighter, but Garcia is a bit more enthusiastic in the cage, which could mean the difference on the scorecards.

Garcia has shown an ability to fight to his level of competition and turn his bouts into coinflips – whether for good or bad, depending on his moneyline price.

He keeps a solid pace on the feet and shoots takedowns at high volume (8.5 attempts per 15 minutes, 48% accuracy). He’s also shown a more well-rounded skillset and improved cardio in his recent fights, so “Gifted” may be hitting his prime at age 27.

Klose has the better wins and has faced the superior slate of opponents. And he may be the more skilled fighter everywhere in this matchup. Still, the margins aren’t particularly drastic in any one area.

Klose vs. Garcia Pick

Neither fighter had a significant advantage in any aspect of this fight, and I don’t view either lightweight as a potent finisher. I could easily foresee Garcia stealing a close decision.

I projected this bout to go to a decision 67% of the time (-200 implied), and I would bet the Fight to Go to a Decision up to -183 (listed -180 at FanDuel), at a two percent edge compared to my number.

The Picks:

  • Fight goes to Decision (-180, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel
  • Rafa Garcia wins by Decision (+420, 0.1u) at FanDuel

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