Erin Blanchfield vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
| Blanchfield Odds | -340 |
| Jasudavicius Odds | +270 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-410/+290) |
| Location | Rogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Edmonton odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Edmonton with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Erin Blanchfield vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius prediction for UFC Edmonton on Saturday, October 17, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
The co-headliner in Edmonton features a showdown between ranked flyweights, Erin Blanchfield and Jasmin Jasudavicius. Both women were originally scheduled to fight each other back in August of this year, but a minor injury on the Blanchfield side forced this bout to be rebooked in Jasudavicius' backyard.
Jasudavicius is coming off a bounce-back win over Karine Silva after having her previous winning streak derailed by Manon Fiorot. Blanchfield, whose last loss was also to Fiorot, will be looking to make it three in a row with a potential win in enemy territory this weekend.
Here's my Blanchfield vs. Jasudavicius pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Blanchfield | Jasudavicius | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-2 | 15-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:37 | 12:45 |
| Height | 5'4" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 66" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/04/1999 | 3/01/1989 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.24 | 3.27 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.25 | 3.46 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.96 | 2.63 |
| TD Acc | 34% | 46% |
| TD Def | 78% | 75% |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 | 0.5 |
From a stylistic perspective, both women have similarly structured foundations to their grapple-first games.
Blanchfield, who almost smacks of the WMMA version of Frankie Edgar, is a fairly consistent pace fighter who likes to vary their looks and levels on the feet.
Working behind a steady dose of feints and lead-handed attacks alike, Blanchfield does a decent job of throwing out feelers in order to draw out the kind of engagements she is looking for. And when the American is feeling in stride, Blanchfield can put together combinations that feature fluid kicks off her punches.
Blanchfield also does well when it comes to converting defensive frames into elbows, which could come in handy against the head-first nature of his current counterpart.
As far as takedowns go, Blanchfield is a flexible takedown artist who arguably does her best work when chaining to and from single-leg attacks. Whether she's changing levels in open space or fishing for trips and tosses in the clinch, Blanchfield seldom seems at a loss for ideas in closed quarters.
Although Blanchfield can offer a strong positional game, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is also an opportunistic submission threat from negative and positive positions alike (as necks are always on the menu in a Blanchfield fight).
Luckily for Jasudavicius, she is far from a slouch in the grappling department.
Jasudavicius may employ a more plodding striking style that smacks of a long-lost Diaz brother who is perpetually stuck in first gear, but the Canadian can competently put together her punches and kicks once she gets going. And once Jasudavicius can close the distance, the wrestling silver medalists' skills really start to shine through.
Almost like an annoying piece of velcro, Jasudavicius is a well-versed takedown artist who works behind solid fundamentals like strong head position and a good awareness of over-unders. The 37-year-old also displays solid defense against single-legs and takedown attempts along the cage – which could be huge for Jasudavicius considering Blanchfield's strengths.
On the handful of instances Jasudavicius has been taken down, she appears to favor butterfly guard wrestle-ups or deep-half variations (that also allow her wrestle-up options). And when Jasudavicius is working from topside, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt almost conducts herself like a catch wrestler with the type of wrist traps and transitions she goes for.
Blanchfield vs. Jasudavicius Pick, Prediction
The oddsmakers and the public favor the American fighter, listing Blanchfield -340 and Jasudavicius +270 as of this writing. Despite not disagreeing with who is favored, the money line is getting a bit wide for a bout that comes with some trap-fight feels attached.
On paper, Blanchfield has traditionally struggled with bigger and stronger fighters who can match her in the grappling department. Whereas Jasudavicius, when zooming out on her resume, appears to struggle with high-volume out-fighters who can counter.
Even if Blanchfield wins a decision like the board is indicating, I suspect that it will be a much sweatier cash than bettors are expecting. And though that logic would point to a play on Jasudavicius' points handicap and over angles alike, I can't co-sign on either due to the looming (and abrupt) submission sensibilities of Blanchfield.
Jasudavicius hasn't technically been submitted as a pro, but the Canadian is not beyond getting her neck stuck when changing levels for a takedown – something that almost cost her in her last outing opposite Silva. So, with that in mind, I'll instead be targeting the total takedown markets.
Not only is Jasudavicius' Over 1.5 total takedown prop priced better than her points handicap line, but this is a bet that could cash even if Jasudavicius loses (so long as she doesn't get guillotined on her first attempt).
On the other hand, I also believe that Blanchfield's Over 1.5 total takedown option, which is also priced better than Jasudavicius' points prop, is also incredibly live given that the American implements the exact kind of takedowns that have worked on her Canadian counterpart in the past.
Add in the fact that both women quietly score a decent portion of their completed takedowns as direct responses to the takedowns attempted on them, and this could be the perfect storm for betting both sides of this equation – especially when you consider the arbitrage potential and cross coverage that the lines offer relative to one another.
I'm officially picking Blanchfield to win by submission, but will be betting both of these props in hopes of at least one cashing.
Dan's Picks: Erin Blanchfield O 1.5 takedowns -115 | Jasmine Jasudavicius Over 1.5 takedowns +130 (DraftKings)
