The Octagon touches down in Edmonton, and the main event features a clash between Joaquin Buckley and Mike Malott. Entering the arena with distinct stylistic identities, the odds at Polymarket are projecting an intense tactical clash.
However, that isn't the only fight worth paying attention to this Saturday. In this article, we'll break down some of the best picks so you can build a solid trading strategy for the upcoming UFC Fight Night.
Before we get into it, be sure to grab our Polymarket promo code and download the Action Network App, were you will find the best UFC props and picks.
UFC Fight Night Picks and Predictions
Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott
Joaquin Buckley enters this headliner as a powerful striker who transitioned seamlessly to welterweight, racking up explosive victories. His recent outings demonstrate an improved ability to dictate pacing without overcommitting into dangerous counters.
On the other hand, Mike Malott is the local fan favorite, trading at 54% implied odds on Polymarket. However, while his past performances showcase lethal efficiency when controlling position, the question is how he will react if Buckley drags him into deep exchanges.
There are two compelling angles for this fight. On one hand, I believe Malott is being overhyped and that Buckley holds the superior path to victory. Backing the underdog is always an attractive entry point.
A more conservative yet stronger position is buying No shares on the Fight Goes the Distance contract. I find it difficult to envision these two fighters reaching the final bell standing, as one of them should impose his dominance long before the scorecards come into play.
Erin Blanchfield vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
In the flyweight co-main event, Erin Blanchfield looks to re-establish her position near the top of the division against Jasmine Jasudavicius.
Blanchfield's strength relies on suffocating top control and submission attempts that wear opponents down over the course of the bout. But it won't be an easy task. Jasudavicius will counter with superior height and effective clinch work that allows her to control distance against aggressive opponents.
Blanchfield is the heavy favorite here, trading at 74% implied odds on Polymarket. The core thesis behind this line is that, while Jasudavicius has proven to be physically imposing, she lacks the defensive tools to counter Blanchfield’s grappling intensity.
Although the market consensus leans toward the fight going to the judges' scorecards, a strong case can be made for a Blanchfield victory via submission, which is currently trading at just 24 cents per share. That is an unbeatable price.
Tanner Boser vs. Jhonata Diniz
Heavyweight action features Canadian veteran Tanner Boser taking on dangerous Brazilian striker Jhonata Diniz.
This is an intriguing fight due to the stylistic contrasts. Boser is a mobile fighter known for volume kickboxing and footwork, while Diniz enters as a decorated kickboxer with terrifying power in both hands, capable of ending fights instantly if his opponents stay too close.
For now, Diniz is the market favorite, holding steady at 67% implied odds for quite some time. I believe the moneyline is accurate in this case, as the Brazilian has a strong chance of coming away victorious. However, the most compelling angle for this bout lies in the method of victory. I strongly favor Diniz to finish the fight via KO/TKO before Round 3.
Chelsea Chandler vs Melissa Croden
Bantamweight contenders Chelsea Chandler and Melissa Croden clash in a bout where physical strength and cage control will be paramount. Chandler relies on forward aggression, heavy clinch pressing to break her opponents' defensive structure. Croden, entering with regional momentum, relies on straight punches and active guard play to disrupt aggressive wrestlers.
Croden is the absolute favorite here, trading at 76% implied odds on the Polymarket board, and I think it makes total sense when comparing both fighters' styles and their recent momentum entering the bout.
Even if Chandler goes for an early takedown and pushes aggressively for a submission, Croden should be able to weather that initial aggression and wear Chandler down. As Chandler tires in the final stretch, Croden will have a clear path to take control.
In this case, along with the moneyline favoring Croden, my two favorite positions are YES on the Fight Goes the Distance contract and the Fight Won by Decision market.
