Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC Edmonton, Saturday, October 17

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On Saturday, the UFC returns to Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, for a 13-fight card featuring an important welterweight matchup between No. 8 contender Joaquin Buckley and No. 11-ranked Mike Malott, an Ontario native.

Malott enters his second career main event with an 8-1 professional record, on a four-fight winning streak, most recently defeating Gilbert Burns via TKO in Winnipeg in April. Still, he finished that fight in the third round and has never seen championship rounds in his professional career, which could be an issue given some cardio concerns.

His opponent, Joaquin Buckley, has proven his mettle over 25 minutes, winning points in the fourth and fifth rounds before losing by decision to Kamaru Usman. Buckley enters on a two-fight losing streak, albeit against Usman and Sean Brady, but has out-fought expectations, racking up an 11-6 promotional record, with some big names on his resume.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Edmonton Main Event on Saturday night and use those factors to bet on these welterweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 10:45 p.m. ET (7:45 p.m. PT) on Saturday night.

Here's my Buckley vs. Malott pick and prediction. Make sure to download our Action Network app in order to get the latest MMA picks and betting analysis from our experts.

Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott Odds

Tale of the Tape

Joaquin Buckley initially opened as a -300 favorite (75% implied) for this fight, with Malott closer to +250, but the line quickly flipped and has remained near its current price point for the past week.

Malott is taller (3"), but Buckley is younger (2.5 years), has the longer reach (3"), and the bigger body; he has previously competed at middleweight, whereas Malott began his career as a featherweight.

Malott is both the better wrestler and grappler, and we have seen Buckley get exposed on the mat in other matchups, while defending just over half of takedown attempts against him (57%). Malott has a substantial edge in control rate (82% to 35%), and he's one of the more dangerous submission threats that Buckley has faced, too.

Still, Malott has not wrestled much in his recent performances, shooting just two takedown attempts in his past four fights. That came after his awkward loss to Neil Magny, where Malott seemingly gassed out in the final minute after landing 100 significant strikes and four takedowns against the UFC recordholder for welterweight wins (25).

As a result, while it would be to Malott's benefit to grapple given the wrestling edge (1.1 attempts per five minutes at distance; 57% accuracy), it's difficult to trust him to pursue the path of least resistance from the outset because it has not been his game plan in recent fights.

Instead, Malott has proven that he can hang with seemingly better strikers on the feet, keeping up with Kevin Holland at distance (44-49) and knocking out both Charles Radtke and Gilbert Burns. While he's the more efficient striker than Buckley on paper (+1.4 to +0.8 differential per minute at distance), Buckley throws more aggressively but less accurately (36% to 48% accuracy) and offers superior striking defense (58% to 56%).

As a result, while the numbers show that Malott could be competitive in a straight kickboxing match, you'd have to favor Buckley's volume, durability, and cardio if this stays on the feet. That said, I do think Malott's power is underrated for the welterweight division, and Buckley has lost by KO/TKO in three separate fights (body shot, head kick, and punches).

I don't put Malott's wrestling on the level of Usman or Brady, but he should be able to get Buckley down early if he grapples proactively; the question is whether he's improved his stamina and can maintain that style over 25 minutes.

As a result, while I like Malott from a pre-fight perspective, there should be a live opportunity to get Buckley better than his pre-fight number at some point after the first or second round. And I'd look to invest in Buckley live, regardless of the pricing or your pre-fight positions, after the ten-minute mark.

Still, Malott has a more significant advantage in the grappling than Buckley will have in striking, especially over the first 10 to 15 minutes of the fight, and you have to favor Malott for that reason alone; if he dictates where the fight takes place, the Canadian should get out to an early lead.

This fight will be decided by how proactively and successfully Malott wrestles and whether he can finish in the first 15 minutes; otherwise, Buckley could stage a dramatic comeback in the second half.

Buckley vs. Malott Prediction, Picks

I projected Mike Malott as a 59% favorite (-144 implied odds), and I would bet his moneyline up to -135 pre-fight. Buckley is seemingly a public underdog this week, drawing most fan support on Tapology (68%), MMA Junkie (61%), and BetMMA.tips; yet the line has remained steady. While I have never been high on Malott — and have usually bet against him in his UFC bouts — my model has shown value going against fighters who are receiving one-sided support that isn't reflective of the betting odds.

Alternatively, Malott Over 1.5 Takedowns is lined at -120 — similar to his moneyline — and he probably needs to hit that Over to win the fight, and if it hits, then you don't need to sweat his gas tank down the stretch.

I also see an edge on Malott to win by finish or inside the distance (projected +158), and I would bet his inside-the-distance prop down to +170.

However, as I discussed above, I would look to bet Buckley live after the ten-minute mark of the fight; Malott has yet to prove that he can maintain his cardio if he proactively grapples, and he remains untested in the championship rounds, whereas Buckley had his best moments in the fourth and fifth rounds against Usman.

Sean Zerillo's UFC Edmonton Best Bets

• Mike Malott (-117, DraftKings)
• Mike Malott wins Inside the Distance (+200, DraftKings)
• Mike Malott Over 1.5 Takedowns (-120, DraftKings)
• Joaquin Buckley Live after Round 2

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