Read our UFC Vegas 122 predictions for this live event on Saturday from the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The prelims kick off at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with the main card at 8:00 p.m.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 12-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below. Be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
UFC Vegas 122 Moneyline Projections
UFC Vegas 122 Prop Projections
Dan Tom, Action Contributor
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:30 p.m. ET
I know a fighter on a four-fight losing skid doesn’t scream “best bet” at first glance, but the dynamic between Francisco Prado and Ismael Bonfim is a clear one.
Bonfim, despite showing an ability to win by decision, has traditionally been a do-or-die fighter who has steadily been trending toward the ‘die’ part of said archetype. Whereas Prado, who has only lost by decision in his career, has a surprisingly better record in the Apex than Bonfim at 1-0 (whereas Bonfim stands winless in the smaller octagon at 0-3, unless you count his win on Dana White’s Contender Series).
Prado does have trouble when it comes to consistently keeping a hold of the steering wheel within rounds, but when the Argentinian is on, he usually wins via fast and opportunistic finishes. So, between Bonfim’s propensity to give up early when fights aren’t going his way and the higher possibilities for improvement on his younger foe’s side, I believe that the stage is set for Prado to show the 16-year pro in Bonfim where the proverbial door is located.
Although you can still find some small plus money by playing “inside the distance” props for Prado, I elected to go with alternative prop markets for him to finish in rounds one or two at nearly double the return (since those are the hot rounds for each fighter, anyway). If you don’t have access to those markets, then an SGP with Prado and the Under 2.5 rounds will get you some solid plus numbers as well.
Pick: Francisco Prado Rounds 1 or 2 +195 (FanDuel)
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
In retrospect, maybe the fall off for Malcolm Wellmaker shouldn't have been such a surprise.
Wellmaker entered the UFC in 2024 as a 30-year-old "prospect," with the first red flag being his age. Obviously, 30 isn't past his prime, but it's a tough time to start a UFC career in the lighter weight classes. Especially for a fighter like Wellmaker, who is athletically gifted but fairly one-dimensional, with some obvious deficiencies in his overall game.
Intentionally or not, the UFC did a good job hiding those holes, matching him up first with fellow striker Cameron Saaiman, and then with human punching bag Kris Moutinho in his first two UFC appearances. Those two opponents combined for just a single takedown attempt on Wellmaker, and were content to let him beat them where he is best. Then he faced Ethyn Ewing on short notice, dropping a clear decision while being taken down three times, while also being outstruck on the feet. The book now out on Wellmaker, Juan Diaz took him down five times and submitted him in his next fight.
That makes a matchup with Otari Tanzilovi particularly difficult. Tanzilovi is 0-2 in the UFC/Contender Series with two close losses, but has picked up nine takedowns across those fights, and was fighting up a weight class in the more recent bout. He has a clear path to victory against Wellmaker via his grappling, and has never been knocked out as a pro, which at least lowers the risk of a quick Wellmaker finish.
As I discussed on our latest UFC betting preview with Zerillo, Wellmaker will need to completely revamp his boxing-style stance in order to effectively grapple defensively, but that could have the downstream effect of making him less dangerous on the feet — if it even works to begin with.
Tanzilovi is as high as +185 odds in a fight where his opponent is heavily reliant on becoming the first man to knock him out, while Tanzilovi has multiple ways to win the bout. I'd even go so far as to say the wrong fighter is favored in this battle of Georgia, and would take Tanzilovi down to +120.
Still, I projected her moneyline at -278 (73.5%), and I would bet her up to -250 (71.5% implied), giving me a two percent edge over my number.
Moreover, I would consider betting Godinez Over 2.5 takedowns (-120) up to -125 (projected 3.1), and I'd think about combining those bets in a correlated Same Game Parlay (-106 at Caesars)
