On Saturday, the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a 12-fight card. The card features a critical matchup in the welterweight division between former title challenger and No. 8 contender Gilbert Burns and unbeaten No. 12-ranked Michael Morales.
Check out my Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales predictions, picks and odds for UFC Vegas 106 on Saturday, May 17.
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales Odds, Prediction
| Burns Odds | +575 |
| Morales Odds | -850 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 Rounds (-105/-125) |
| Location | UFC APEX | Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 106 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC Vegas 106 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Burns will enter his fifth career main event or five-round fight as a significant underdog, amid a three-fight losing streak. He recently dropped a pair of 25-minute decisions against Sean Brady and Belal Muhammad. Still, before a third-round KO loss, he was leading on the scorecards against current champion Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 299 last March. Burns has competed well against stiff competition – including his decision loss at UFC 273 against Khamzat Chimaev – but is nearing the end of his career, at age 38.
Morales enters his first career main event or five-round fight following a 6-0 start in the promotion, including his contract-earning win on the Contender Series in September 2021. Morales has finished three of his five opponents via knockout and will hope to ascend towards title contention with an unbeaten record.
Here's my Burns vs. Morales prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Burns | Morales | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-8 | 17-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:44 | 10:49 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 79" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/20/1986 | 6/24/1999 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.17 | 5.42 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.57 | 3.42 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 52% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.10 | 1.16 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 41% |
| TD Def | 53% | 92% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0 |
Michael Morales has championship-caliber athleticism, blending an enormous frame for welterweight, a long reach (8" advantage over Gilbert Burns), excellent durability, and cardio into a rounded skillset. His parents are both black belt judokas, and Morales has trained judo since he was five, wrestled since he was 10, and started MMA at 15. He is extremely polished for a 25-year-old prospect, with a wealth of pro fights for someone his age.
Morales is taking a significant step up in competition on Saturday, but he should be the more efficient striker than Burns, by maximizing his length from distance and landing more output (+1.8 to -1.0 strike differential per minute; 5.8 to 3.7 landed).
Moreover, he should maintain that distance so that Burns cannot initiate the grappling (averages 2.9 takedown attempts per five minutes, 38% accuracy). Morales has shown good takedown defense (denied 21 of 23 attempts), but hasn't faced a grappler near Burns' calibre (66% control rate of clinch/ground time for Burns), and has spent time getting controlled (30% control rate for Morales) by Trevin Giles, Max Griffin, and Adam Fuggit; before finishing two of those three opponents.
Burns had significantly more success wrestling Jack Della Maddalena (landed seven of 11 attempts, 5:07 control time) than Belal Muhammad did last week (3/9, 3:21); still, while Burns has never had the best cardio, his gas tank has only worsened with age. As a result, he's less likely to grapple proactively – or do so successfully – across a 25-minute fight against a significantly younger opponent – than he was in a three-round fight against the current champion.
While Morales has not seen the championship rounds, I haven't noticed any cardio issues from him in three-round fights. Still, the age gap – and Burns' cardio issues – alleviate any concerns I'd have about his gas tank in this matchup anyway. When there is at least a 12-year age gap between MMA combatants, the younger fighter has won 74% of the bouts (196-69) at average odds of -163 (62.1% implied); more than 12% above expectation. The older fighters are generally more popular and draw more casual interest with a bigger fanbase, typically leading to value on their younger opponent.
I'm unsure how much value you could find at this pre-fight price point. However, you could instead target Morales live after Round 1 or Round 2. I'd expect this fight to look competitive early, particularly if Burns can land takedowns and force Morales to grapple on the bottom. He doesn't have to close as much distance in the APEX cage – compared to the 30-foot octagon – and I'd expect Burns to push Morales back to the fence and clinch him early; we'll see if he can land a takedown and go to work from that position.
If Burns can get Morales down, he can look to finish the fight via submission or take the back and hold position; I doubt that he can keep Morales on the bottom from half guard for significant stretches. Still, Burns does need grappling success in order to win the fight; managing his energy across five rounds is key to executing this game plan.
Still, the longer the fight goes, the better Morales might look; Burns isn't wearing damage as well as he used to, and Morales' physicality should ultimately wear Burns out in the grappling, the more he can scramble back to his feet.
While Morales should win minutes staying away from Burns in this fight, he does need to weaponize his cardio and dictate a higher-paced fight to maximize the age gap. Morales is often content to settle into a moderate pace kickboxing match until the moment he hurts his opponent. A slower pace would help Burns stay competitive deeper into the fight.
Burns vs. Morales Prediction
I projected Michael Morales as an 84.2% favorite (-532 implied odds) in this matchup; as a result, I show slight value on the underdog, Gilbert Burns (projected +532, listed +600), and wouldn't fault anyone for grabbing a pre-fight ticket at that big of a number.
Still, make sure to watch the live markets and look for the best entry point on Morales after Round 1 or Round 2, whether you have a Burns ticket or not.
I also project value on the fight to reach a decision (projected +169, listed +200) and show correlated value on Burns to win by decision (projected +1190, listed +1400 at FanDuel), but I would rather bet the former. Alternatively, consider betting the Over 2.5 Rounds (-140), Fight to Start Round 4 (-116) or the Over 3.5 Rounds (+108). I'd bet those to -160, -125, and +100, respectively.
Three-round welterweight bouts go to decision at about a 45% clip, but welterweight main events (which have a survivorship bias for fighters with better-than-average durability) have seen the scorecards at a 55% clip over the past decade.
At a minimum, I'd expect a more moderate pace early, before Morales ramps up down the stretch for a finish as an aging Burns likely wilts in the championship rounds.
Sean's Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds (-140 at ESPNBet) | Michael Morales Live Anytime after Round 1
