Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix Odds, Prediction
| Bautista Odds | +150 |
| Mix Odds | -180 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (-188/+145) |
| Location | Prudential Center | Newark, New Jersey |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 316 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC 316 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix predictions, picks and odds for UFC 316 on Saturday, June 7.
It’s not often in today's UFC to see a fighter make their organizational debut as a title contender. I believe that is what we are getting with the addition of Patchy Mix to the bantamweight division. His opponent, Mario Bautista, is riding a seven fight winning streak and provides the perfect test in overall skill-set to see just how ready Mix may be for a potential title opportunity.
Here's my Bautista vs. Mix prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Bautista | Mix | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-2 | 20-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:14 | |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 72" |
| Stance | Switch | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 7/01/1993 | 8/16/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.33 | |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.91 | |
| SS Defense | 54% | |
| Take Down Avg | 1.92 | |
| TD Acc | 33% | |
| TD Def | 66% | |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 |
Mix is coming over from Bellator, but don’t be fooled, the competition he has faced has not been lacking. The list of contenders Mix has dispatched over the last five years is more impressive than the names Bautista has beaten, despite Bautista fighting in the more deeply talented organization.
The most interesting aspect of this fight may be the similarities between the two men. While skill for skill, of course one might have the edge over the other, but the well-rounded nature of both Mix and Bautista create a dynamic that will force an honest display of which man can mix their martial arts most effectively.
Mario Bautista is a good athlete who is able to seamlessly transition from striking to grappling. However, I am having a difficult time envisioning a gameplan in which he can press any particular advantage. Remaining at distance against Mix would be a mistake, as that is where Mix is most comfortable striking and it will allow Mix to decide when and if to implement his wrestling. Pressing forward and getting inside, as Bautista did against Jose Aldo, also seems like a poor idea, as Mix is one of the slickest grapplers in the entire MMA landscape.
Mix is the more skilled wrestler of the two, although, how wide of an edge he has in that specific department remains to be seen. There is no doubt in my mind Mix is the much more dangerous threat when the two men are tied up, whether that is in the clinch or on the mat. Mix’s series of chokes are incredible – one mistake by Bautista and he could be seconds away from getting put to sleep.
Bautista has a 66% takedown defense over his career in the UFC, but getting taken down four times by Da’Mon Blackshear has me worried he won't be able to consistently stop a superior wrestler in Mix. While Bautista got the victory that night, Blackshear was a short notice replacement for that fight and had previously fought the prior weekend.
The Blackshear fight is noteworthy because he has a similar build to Mix and an above-average wrestling ability. With that said, Blackshear’s career takedown accuracy is just 36%. Mix should have success if he pulls the trigger on takedowns attempts should the striking match not play out as he is expecting.
Bautista vs. Mix Prediction
All signs are pointing to an impressive coming out party for Patchy Mix. He is squarely in his prime with a sense of upward trajectory in rounding out his skills to match his dominant grappling prowess.
There is not anything Bautista could throw at him that he is not ready for and/or has not seen before. Bautista will need to be aggressive in pursuing the type of fight he wants, and it will cause him to make a mistake that Mix will capitalize on. Mix instantly becomes a top five contender in a stacked bantamweight division if I am right in my assessment.
The best price is -185 at DraftKings
John's Pick: Mix -185 (DraftKings)
