Ronaldo Souza vs. Andre Muniz Odds
The final preliminary bout on Saturday's card features a prospect vs. veteran showdown in the middleweight division between 41-year-old "Jacare" Souza and 31-year-old contender series product Andre Muniz.
Jacare is currently mired in a three-fight losing streak and would likely be cut from the UFC's roster with a fourth loss in his past five fights. Muniz is currently on a six-fight winning streak, including a quick finish over Bartosz Fabinski in his UFC debut last September.
Can "Sergipano" make a statement with a win over a former ADCC World Champion and a UFC staple, or does Jacare still have a few more winning performances left, even at the tail end of his career?
Below I preview the matchup and odds for Saturday's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate.
Tale of the Tape
| Souza | Muniz | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 26-9 (1 NC) | 20-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:52 | 8:37 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 12/7/1979 | 2/17/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.53 | 2.21 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 58% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.85 | 1.80 |
| SS Defense | 62% | 45% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.55 | 2.61 |
| TD Acc | 39% | 35% |
| TD Def | 60% | 37% |
| Submission Avg | 1.4 | 2.2 |
Muniz has a significant reach advantage (+6 inches) in this matchup, but he doesn't make the most of his length. He's much more of a grappling specialist and could be out of his depth going against a superior wrestler and grappler in Souza.
Jacare is also the better striker and carries more power. Unless Jacare's chin is completely shot, or unless his athleticism has fallen off the table in his forties, it's difficult to see where Muniz has the advantage in this fight.
The betting line implies that Jacare is done, which would mean that his chin is completely shot. I don't think that that's necessarily the case, and this is a ripe spot for a vet lesson.
Jacare's recent loss to Kevin Holland (knocked out from guard) is concerning in a vacuum, but he went five hard rounds twice in a pair of 2019 losses against Jack Hermansson and Jan Blachowicz — and his chin withstood both of those challenges.
Furthermore, if the UFC was merely trying to protect Jacare from a second consecutive knockout loss, they couldn't have handed him a better stylistic matchup. Muniz looks like a talented grappler, but he doesn't pack much power. And Jacare is one of the best grapplers on the planet.
Souza vs. Muniz Pick
This fight was listed at a pick'em as recently as Thursday, but the line has started to trend towards Souza, who I projected as a 58% favorite, now that weigh-ins have concluded.
I would bet Jacare's moneyline up to -123, at a 2.5% edge.
I don't see any value with regard to the total, and while I do see slight value on Jacare's odds to win inside the distance (projected +212, listed +220), there's not enough of an edge to make a play in the prop market.
There's a clear possibility for a jiu-jitsu stalemate on the mat, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Jacare win a three-round decision. But his skillset indicates a higher probability of finishing too – and he offers many more paths to winning this fight.
The Pick: Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza (-120, 0.75 units)
