Shane Burgos vs. Edson Barboza Odds
The first fight on Saturday's main card has fight of the night potential, as fan-favorite Shane Burgos takes on the legendary Edson Barboza.
Burgos is looking to bounce back after a loss to Josh Emmett (as a -190 favorite) in a fight of the night last June, while Barboza is hoping to win consecutive fights for the first time since 2017 (2-4 since losing to Khabib).
Burgos' camp (Tiger Schulman) scored the biggest upset on last Saturday's card with Mike Trizano. Can Burgos add another win to their resume, or will he drop consecutive fights for the first time in his career?
Below I preview the matchup and odds for Saturday's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate.
Tale of the Tape
| Burgos | Barboza | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-2 | 21-9 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:24 | 11:28 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/19/1991 | 1/21/1986 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 7.31 | 3.98 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 43% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.81 | 4.03 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| TD Acc | 100% | 44% |
| TD Def | 89% | 78% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.1 |
As you can tell from the striking metrics, Burgos pushes a ludicrous pace (combined 13.12 significant strikes landed and absorbed per minute). While he has been the more efficient man than Barboza, you have to factor in the level of competition.
Burgos is far less responsible on the defensive end than Barboza, and the Brazilian carries significantly more power. While Burgos appears very durable, he has been knocked out by top talent before. However, I would give him the edge in terms of overall durability, in addition to cardio.
You can expect to see Burgos pressure forward into the pocket and look to rack up a high number of strikes to break the range of Barboza's kicks. Burgos doesn't carry significant power in any individual shot, but his volume does accumulate damage after a couple of rounds.
Burgos also figures to have the advantage on the mat, but Barboza has been difficult to take down (78% takedown defense), and Burgos has rarely tried to take his UFC matchups to the ground.
Burgos vs. Barboza Pick
I projected Burgos as a 53% favorite and would lean his way in this spot — he offers more paths to victory — but I don't see value on either side of the moneyline relative to my projection.
I also suspect this fight will end inside the distance, but I don't see any value compared to my number (projected +125, listed +115). Furthermore, I don't see value in any of the winning method props for this fight.
This could be one of the more exciting fights on Saturday, but unfortunately, I'm going to hit the pass in this spot — I don't see value on any bet compared to my projections, and I see no need to force a play without a more confident read.
The Pick: Pass
