UFC 265 Betting Odds, Model Projections & Picks: Predictions for Each Saturday Fight (Aug. 7)

On Saturday, the UFC returns to Houston with a 13-fight card for UFC 265, featuring an Interim Heavyweight Title fight between local product Derrick Lewis and undefeated French prospect Ciryl Gane.

The early preliminary card will feature four fights on ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET before moving to ESPN2 for four free fights at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight PPV main card commences at 10 p.m. ET. on ESPN+.

If you are new to this piece, or this sport, note that in addition to moneylines and over/unders, there are numerous ways to bet on an MMA fight, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

As a result, after examining all of the betting options, your typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of actionable value.

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Moneyline Projections and Picks

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday’s 13 bouts. In the next section, you’ll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Prop Projections and Picks

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, which enables us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter win inside of the distance.

UFC 265 Picks and Analysis

Odds as of Wednesday and via DraftKings

Early Prelims

• ESPN
• 6 p.m. ET

Bantamweight fight: Johnny Munoz vs. Jamey Simmons

These fighters are both looking to bounce back off of losses in their short-notice UFC debuts.

Simmons doesn't strike me as a UFC-level talent. He looked completely overmatched in his fight with Giga Chikadze but didn't necessarily have the resume of a UFC fighter before that call.

Munoz was competitive with Nate Maness, who is an underrated talent, and faded after taking the first round on all three scorecards. Despite a point deduction for multiple groin strikes, nine of the 15 media scorecards still had Munoz earning either a win or a draw.

Munoz is live to a quick submission against Simmons if he can get this fight to the mat (2-of-16 on takedowns vs. Maness), but his Round 1 prop (+215) isn't super enticing.

His decision prop (projected +220, listed +240) shows slight value, but the line movement on this fight (from -150 at open to -300 as of writing) aligns with a finish. The submission prop (projected +184) is just out of range.

I projected Munoz as a 78% favorite in this spot (-359 implied), and I like his moneyline as a parlay piece up to -300.

Unfortunately, I already paired Munoz with Manel Kape, who missed weight on Friday, prior to weigh-ins because they represented two high-risk commodities that are still seemingly undervalued.

I like a couple of other spots on this card as parlay pieces (Hill/Torres Over 2.5 Rounds), and I wouldn't recommend Kape at this point, but I think Munoz should roll here.

Bets: 

• Parlay (+100, 0.5 units): Johnny Munoz (-300) & Manel Kape (-200)

Women's Flyweight fight: Victoria Leonardo vs. Melissa Gatto

Gatto is returning from a long layoff following a doping suspension and making her UFC debut at the ripe age of 25. It's likely that the Brazilian has made substantial improvements in the training room over that long stretch, but it also makes her an unknown commodity.

Gatto has a legitimate win on her resume over a ranked UFC Bantamweight (and one of my favorite fighters) in Karol Rosa in her last fight on the Brazilian regional scene, but Gatto has mostly shown herself to be a grappling specialist who likes to work off of her back.

Generally speaking, those are the types of fighters I try to fade because finishes don't materialize nearly as easily at the UFC level, and martial artists who are happy to fight off their backs rarely win minutes on the scorecards.

Gatto owns a 5-inch reach advantage, but Leonardo should have the advantages in striking output and physicality (based upon what we have seen to date).

This fight is a bit of a mystery since the improvement angle for Gatto is such an unknown, and I don't show value on either side of the moneyline or total.

However, I show slight value on Leonardo to win by decision (projected +205, listed +225 at PointsBet), and I'll take a small stab on the fighter who has had an entire 11-fight career in the span of her opponent's layoff.

Bets: 

• Victoria Leonardo wins by Decision (+225, 0.25u)

Bantamweight fight: Miles Johns vs. Anderson Dos Santos

This fight was rebooked from the July 17 Fight Night card after Dos Santos' camp had an issue with COVID-19 protocols.

Johns is the much more technical and efficient striker (+0.91 to -2.14 strike differential, 116 to 83 combined strike accuracy), and I largely expect a striking battle in this matchup.

Dos Santos (18% takedown accuracy) is the more dangerous submission artist, and I doubt that Johns (87% takedown defense) wants to enter that world if he's winning the striking exchanges. He's probably the better offensive wrestler (30% accuracy), but Dos Santos is happy to accept guard and sink in a guillotine off of his back.

The Brazilian probably had a better chance of winning this fight in the small cage at APEX as opposed to the normal-sized octagon in Houston. He's slow and plodding and may have a difficult time closing the distance against Johns, despite a four-inch reach advantage.

Still, "Berinja" will maintain forward pressure for the duration, and Johns has shown a propensity to slow down later in fights.

If Johns can stay on his bike on the outside of the cage, he probably wins the majority of minutes and secures a clear decision. But if he cannot keep Dos Santos out of his face and gets suckered into a brawl, this will become a high-variance fight in a hurry, one that gives the underdog a better chance of finishing.

I projected slight value on this fight to end inside of the distance (+130 projected, NO listed +136 at PointsBet), but the majority of that weight, as I mentioned, is with the underdog.

I projected Dos Santos' odds to win inside the distance at +376 and would bet his inside the distance prop or KO/TKO/Submission"Double Chance Prop down to +400.

Bets: 

• Anderson dos Santos wins Inside the Distance (+425, 0.25u)

Flyweight fight: Manel Kape vs. Ode Osbourne

Kape was the only fighter who missed weight on Saturday, the continuation of a disappointing run in the UFC for the former RIZIN champion.

The UFC paid good money to sign Kape to the promotion, and he even served as the backup for the flyweight title fight at UFC 256.

After dropping a pair of decisions against Alexandre Pantoja and Mateus Nicolau, where he arguably looked like the more skilled fighter but wouldn't let his hands go, Kape finds himself taking a big step down in competition on the prelims.

The betting line here doesn't necessarily reflect Kape's true talent level. If this was for his UFC debut, I would suspect the listed odds might be closer to -350 or -400 in this spot against Osbourne, whose resume doesn't approach the level of the No. 3 ranked Pantoja or No. 12 ranked Nicolau.

And Kape has actually displayed good skills in the UFC, including surprisingly solid takedown defense and scrambling.

Low output was always the biggest concern with Kape's fighting style, but if he can keep his fights standing and let his hands go more frequently, he could be a problem in this division.

I was going to be on Kape big in this spot. Unfortunately, the weight miss is a now major concern, and I don't see any betting value on this fight.

Kape was already tied into my parlay, but I wouldn't add anything else on this bout after Friday's weigh-ins.

Bets: 

• Pass

Preliminary Card

• ESPN
• 8 p.m. ET

Women's Strawweight fight: Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Jessica Penne

If there weren't rumors surrounding her potential retirement, Kowalkiewicz would be my favorite bet on Saturday night.

Frankly, she should be a much more significant favorite in this matchup against Jessica Penne and owns far superior metrics.

Kowalkiewicz has landed an additional 2.87 significant strikes per minute inside the octagon relative to Penne, who has been out-landed by 2.05 strikes per minute by her opponent (0.38 for Kowalkiewicz).

Penne's combined striking efficiency number (81) is one of the lowest I've seen, though Kowalkiewicz (95) is also below-average (100).

The key here, aside from motivation on the Kowalkiewicz side, is Penne's grappling (1.50 takedowns per 15 minutes, 23%) and whether she can get Karolina (75% takedown defense) to the mat or control her in the clinch.

At distance, this should be one-way traffic for Kowalkiewicz, and she has faced far better competition than Penne in the grappling realm.

It's difficult to find an area in this stylistic matchup where Penne has any advantage, aside from height (two inches taller) and reach (three inches longer).

A motivated Kowalkiewicz should roll, but those concerns are leaving me with a small play. I show value on Karolina's moneyline to -160, and I would consider her decision prop at +120 or better (projected +108).

Bets: 

• Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-140, 0.5u)

Light Heavyweight fight: Alonzo Menifield vs. Ed Herman

Alonzo Menifield fights are fairly easy to handicap. He has about three to five minutes of cardio in his system before falling off of a cliff.

He’s been extended past the first minute of round two twice and lost both fights — a decision against Devin Clark last June and knockout loss to Ovince St. Preux last September.

Menifield returned with a quick finish over a short-notice and undersized replacement in Fabio Cherant in March and remains priced about the same here against 25-fight UFC veteran Ed Herman, who is on a three-fight winning streak.

Herman’s last win came with quite a bit of controversy. He was dropped with a knee to the body, which was deemed a groin strike, and ultimately finished his opponent after being given time to recover.

Still, prime Ed Herman would walk through Alonzo Menifield, and the 40-year-old version is capable of beating him.

Menifield is good for one early rush, where he fires straight shots down the pipe and fights his way into the clinch, but Herman should have an advantage in close positions.

“Short Fuse” is remarkably slow at this point of his career, but he remains durable and has a wealth of fight experience (42 pro fights) relative to his opponent (12).

Menifield to win in Round 1 (+130) is the only way to play the chalk side of this fight, but there’s no value on that side.

I projected Herman as a 38% underdog, and I think there’s value on his moneyline down to +180.

I also show value on Herman to win inside the distance (projected +378), and he makes a fantastic live bet after Menifield’s round of gas expires.

To go a step further, you could take a shot on Herman to win in Round 2 (+1100) or Round 3 (+1800) as a gassed-out Menifield tries to survive.

Bets: 

• Ed Herman (+200, 0.5u)
• Ed Herman wins Inside the Distance (+400, 0.25u)
• Ed Herman Live after Round 1

Bantamweight fight: Vince Morales vs. Drako Rodriguez

There’s always at least one fight on every card where I don’t have a good read on the matchup. Unfortunately, if you were looking for a play on this fight, I would just be grasping at air.

Rodriguez, who earned a contract last September on Contender Series, is looking to bounce back after a knockout loss in his UFC debut in February.

Morales is a four-fight UFC veteran who took time off to recover from an Achilles tear following his loss to Chris Gutierrez last May. Fighters who start out 1-3 in the UFC typically don’t keep their roster spot, so perhaps the UFC sees something in Morales.

He beat Aiemann Zahabai, the man who knocked out Rodriguez — but MMA math isn’t that simple.

I’m not overly impressed with Rodriguez, despite the hype. He’s the faster man of these two and has a solid kicking game, But he’s also low-output and has mostly submitted opponents from the bottom on the regional scene.

Morales has held his own with a striker like Song Yadong (lost 79-74 on significant strikes), but his takedown defense (55%) has shown some holes and Rodriguez has a path to victory on the mat.

I don’t project betting value on this fight from any perspective, though I would lean to Morales as the side. His line has come down from odds of +120 within the past week.

Bets: 

• Pass

Lightweight fight: Bobby Green vs. Rafael Fiziev

I unsuccessfully faded Fiziev in each of his past two fights and had no intention of doing that a third time in this spot, but I do think this line is a bit disrespectful to Green.

Green is the larger man, owns superior metrics (-6% strike accuracy, +8% defense, +1.85 to +0.05 strike differential) and is more well-rounded (1.68 takedowns per 15 minutes, 41% accuracy) offensively than Fiziev.

Green also has substantially more experience — 39 professional fights to 10 for Fiziev — and has competed against some of the best in the world at 155.

There’s a universe where Green is undefeated in his past seven fights, too, but his style is extremely unfriendly to judges. He throws a ton of volume and mixes in grappling, but he rarely puts the stamp on rounds, doesn’t hit with a ton of power and reacts poorly when absorbing shots back the other way.

Despite those reactions, Green is extremely durable, which narrows the margins for Fiziev in this fight. He’s a very slick boxer and can keep up or surpass Fiziev on pure output. Green also has the ability to switch stances, which should limit some of Fiziev’s effectiveness with the low kicks.

The Kazakhstan native doesn’t necessarily pull away from his opponents on volume, and he has appeared fairly hittable in the past. Still, Fiziev’s striking is so flashy and when he lands, it appears so damaging that he always looks to be fully in control of the striking.

Fiziev hasn’t faced a ton of grapplers in the past, and he has seemingly made excellent strides to compliment his Muay Thai base. But we also don’t know much about his ability off of his back.

And when you’re betting a large favorite against a fighter who will mix in a level change, that’s not the type of question I would want unanswered. It’s possible that a takedown could be a round in favor of Green.

Fiziev has also shown a tendency to slow down later in fights because he seemingly puts a ton of energy into his strikes and movement, so I would expect to see Green looking stronger in the final minutes of a close battle.

Fiziev is a very high-level prospect, potentially even championship material, but I think Green’s chances of winning this fight are being vastly underrated, particularly if the bout goes the distance. That result is expected (Yes listed -150) more often than not.

Green is exactly the type of guy you fade as a big favorite and ride as a big underdog. I would need +264 or better to back Green’s moneyline and +450 or better (projected +440) to play his decision prop.

Given Fiziev’s upside, however, I’m not particularly keen on either bet.

Bets: 

• Bobby Green wins by Decision (+475, 0.25u)

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Main Card

• ESPN PPV
• 10 p.m. ET

Bantamweight fight: Song Yadong vs. Casey Kenney

In this bantamweight tilt, Song has slight advantages in power and efficiency (+0.71 to +0.51 strike differential), but I tick nearly all of the other boxes for Kenney.

The MMA Lab product was impressive in his recent split-decision loss to Dominick Cruz, landing 74 significant strikes (38%) against one of the most elusive fighters in UFC history. He has shown excellent durability, good cardio, and an array of skills, including the ability to secure takedowns using both judo and wrestling techniques (1.10 per 15 minutes, 39% accuracy).

Kenney is the more well-rounded fighter and the more diverse striker, while Song tends to be a headhunter at times.

I do give Song more finishing upside in this matchup. Still, Kenney is the likelier minute-winner down the stretch and should provide better optics than the more one-dimensional attack from his opponent.

I project value on Kenney's moneyline (projected 58%) up to -120, and I also show value on his decision prop (projected +148) too.

While I project value on the Over/Distance prop (projected -211, listed -200), I think more of that decision weight is tied to the Kenney side.

Bets: 

• Casey Kenney (-120, 0.5u)
• Casey Kenney wins by Decision (+150, 0.25u)

Women's Strawweight fight: Tecia Torres vs. Angela Hill

This is a rematch from 2015 – Hill's third professional fight and second fight under the UFC banner – which Torres won unanimously.

Both fighters have evolved substantially in the past six years. Their overall metrics are pretty comparable (+0.93 to +0.68 strike differential in favor of Torres; 109 to 104 combined strike efficiency number in favor of Torres).

Hill throws a ton of volume, but she's equally hittable and has shown a knack for fighting to close/split decisions. With this fight lined at -400 (80% implied) to go the distance, I wouldn't want to leave a big bet in the hands of the Texas judges, where a single takedown could be enough to swing the fight.

Hill has done a lot of work to shore up her takedown defense (76%) and to improve her grappling in recent years, but her recent win over Ashley Yoder (another rematch) hasn't aged all that well, after Yoder's loss last week to Jinh-Yu Frey (0 of 8 on takedown attempts)

It's tough to gauge whether Torres has made any improvements of late. After losing four consecutive bouts to high-level competition, she has taken a significant class drop and dominated two lower-level opponents.

Based upon the age developmental curve, Torres should be coming into her prime at age 31, while Hill's gatekeeper status is likely more established at age 36.

That being said, the margins are still razor-thin in a close matchup that is expected to go to a decision at a high clip, and I'm mostly grasping for straws by trying to make a significant argument for one side or the other beyond line value.

Hill does have the size advantage (two inches taller, four inches of reach) and is getting underdog money with the ability to make almost any fight a coinflip.

I think there's a slight value on the Over 2.5 Rounds as a parlay piece (projected -423 to go the distance), but I would prefer a small play on Hill's decision prop (projected +174) to +175 or her moneyline, at +142 or better.

Bets: 

• Angela Hill wins by Decision (+180, 0.25u)

Welterweight fight: Michael Chiesa vs. Vicente Luque

This could be a fairly binary fight lined around a pick'em, where the winner looks like a massive favorite in hindsight.

Incredibly, Chiesa used to compete at 155 because he is still massive in the cage at welterweight and has dominated opponents with control (roughly half of his octagon time) throughout his career.

Luque's takedown defense (65%) hasn't been tested all that frequently against high-level grapplers. Once Chiesa gets his opponents down, he smothers them like a weighted blanket, prioritizing position over submission while staying active enough to force the referee to intervene.

Chiesa (3.60 takedowns per 15 minutes, 52% accuracy) is mostly a one-trick pony, but he is excellent in that area and can neutralize some opponents while dominating minutes with relative ease.

Luque (5.75 strikes landed per minute, 5.78 absorbed) is more of a brawler with a much more well-rounded skill set. If he can keep this fight standing or scramble out of Chiesa's control to get back to his feet for the majority of the contest, he should either find a finish or pull away on the scorecards.

Chiesa needs to close the distance and get this fight to the ground at least two or three times. Otherwise, he will get dominated at range.

If Luque is doing enough to win on minutes here, I would tend to think that he finds a finish.

Conversely, I think the majority of Chiesa's win equity is tied to a decision, and I show value on his decision prop (projected +180, listed +220).

Moreover, I show value on Chiesa to win on the moneyline (projected 55%), and I would bet that up to -115.

I'm a fan of Luque and it's personally difficult to bet against him, but Chiesa's size and grappling control can overwhelm opponents in three-round fights.

Bets: 

• Michael Chiesa (+100, 0.5u)
• Michael Chiesa wins by Decision (+225, 0.25u)

Bantamweight fight: Jose Aldo vs. Pedro Munhoz

Saturday's co-main event is an exciting All-Brazilian affair between top-10 contenders in the UFC's deepest division. Aldo initially opened as a slightly bigger favorite (-140), but the number has crept towards a pick'em as of Friday afternoon.

This is Aldo's fourth fight since moving down to bantamweight, and the third where he'll have a significant reach advantage (5 inches) against his opponent, which should help him in the boxing exchanges.

Aldo also does an excellent job of checking leg kicks, which is a big part of Munhoz's game (he landed 126 of 146 attempts (86%) in his last three fights), so he has the tools to neutralize his opponent on the feet.

Aldo also has a vicious low kick game of his own, but he has trended more towards pure boxing later in his career as injuries have mounted up.

Even though these two fighters are the same age, I would give the edge to Munhoz in both cardio and durability.

Munhoz tends to increase his output the longer his fights go, while Aldo has shown signs of decline in the third round, both near the end of his featherweight tenure and at the start of his bantamweight campaign.

In his last fight against Vera, Aldo was fading hard in the third round (trailed 24-7 on strikes landed) but still won the round on all three scorecards by taking Vera's back and controlling 4:53 of the frame.

Munhoz (80% takedown defense) and Aldo (91%) are both adept at keeping their fights on the feet, and I doubt this one does hit the mat at all. Even if it does get there, I would probably favor Munhoz in any grappling exchanges.

I don't show value on either the moneyline or the total for this fight, but I see slight value on Munhoz to win by Decision (projected +190, listed +225). I also like the prop on Munhoz to win in Round 3 or by Decision (listed +180) since I suspect that the highest likelihood of a finish in this bout stems from him walking down a tiring Aldo late.

Lastly, I would target Munhoz as a live bet after Round 1. Aldo's best chance of winning minutes here should come in the first round, and Munhoz should start to take over the longer the fight goes – especially if he can connect with his leg kicks.

Bets: 

• Pedro Munhoz wins in Round 3 or By Decision (+180, 0.25u)
• Pedro Munhoz wins by Decision (+225, 0.25u)
• Pedro Munhoz Live after Round 1

Heavyweight fight: Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane

For additional information and a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's Main Event, make sure to check out my full fight preview.

In short, Gane is the far more technical fighter, with distinct advantages in athleticism, cardio, output, and speed. He's also the superior grappler, and Lewis (52% takedown defense) could spend some time on his back.

Gane should be able to consistently frustrate Lewis with his jab and movement and hurt him to the body with an accumulation of kicks. The damage should eventually wear on Lewis and slow him down if Gane can drag him to deeper waters.

Lewis is 4-0 on the scorecards, but he has never gone the distance in a five-round fight. Conversely, Gane has never absorbed power from a fighter like Lewis.

From a betting standpoint, Lewis is a complete anomaly. 

If you’re playing Lewis to win this fight, bypass his moneyline and bet the knockout prop. I projected a knockout as nearly 90% of his win condition, and I’m surprised to see such a discrepancy relative to his moneyline.

Gane should win the vast majority of minutes in this fight, though I suspect he will get caught, and his chin will be tested at some point. He should start to ramp up the pace and pressure in the later rounds as Lewis slows, and I doubt this fight goes the full 25 minutes as a result,

I initially planned to bet Gane to win in Rounds 4, 5, or by Decision (+155), and I think that’s a fine bet, but I prefer the Gane to win and Over 2.5 Rounds (+116) prop (Fighter/Total Rounds Double) at PointsBet, and I would bet that down to even money.

Bets: 

• Ciryl Gane and Over 2.5 Rounds (+116, 1u)

Zerillo’s UFC 265 Betting Card

Distance or Decision Props and Totals

• Victoria Leonardo wins by Decision (+225, 0.25 units)
• Bobby Green wins by Decision (+475, 0.25u)
• Casey Kenney wins by Decision (+150, 0.25u)
• Angela Hill wins by Decision (+180, 0.25u)
• Michael Chiesa wins by Decision (+225, 0.25u)
• Pedro Munhoz wins in Round 3 or By Decision (+180, 0.25u)
• Pedro Munhoz wins by Decision (+225, 0.25u)
• Ciryl Gane and Over 2.5 Rounds (+116, 1u)

Inside the Distance Props

• Anderson Dos Santos wins Inside the Distance (+425, 0.25u)
• Ed Herman wins Inside the Distance (+400, 0.25u)

Moneylines

• Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-140, 0.5u)
• Ed Herman (+200, 0.5u)
• Casey Kenney (-120, 0.5u)
• Michael Chiesa (+100, 0.5u)

Parlays

• Parlay (+100, 0.5 units): Johnny Munoz (-300) & Manel Kape (-200)

Live Betting Notes

• Ed Herman Live after Round 1
• Pedro Munhoz Live after Round 1

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