Updated UFC 272 Odds, Pick, Prediction for Serghei Spivac vs. Greg Hardy (Saturday, March 5)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Greg Hardy.
- Sergei Spivac is favored to hand Greg Hardy his third straight loss at UFC 272.
- The former NFL player has been finished in each of his last two fights.
- Sean Zerillo breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.
Serghei Spivac vs. Greg Hardy Odds
Serghei Spivac looks to hand Greg Hardy his third-straight loss in the UFC 272 pay-per-view opener on Saturday night.
Spivac was stopped by Tom Aspinall in his last fight, but the 27-year-old Moldovan had three-straight wins before that. Hardy, meanwhile, has been finished by Marcin Tybura and Tai Tuivasa in his last two fights.
Below, I preview the matchup and odds for tonight's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Spivac | Hardy | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-3 | 7-4 (1 NC) |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:27 | 6:41 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 243.5 lbs. | 266 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 80" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/24/95 | 7/28/88 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.71 | 4.84 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.22 | 3.22 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.72 | 0.20 |
| TD Acc | 57% | 33% |
| TD Def | 70% | 80% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Frankly, it's kind of embarrassing that the UFC continues to cram Hardy into PPV main cards. At least three prelims (Mullarkey-Turner, Agapova-Moroz, and Rodriguez-Yan) deserve more shine, but everyone wants to see Hardy get knocked out.
Spivac has a decent chance of doing so — or winning by submission — if he can get Hardy to the mat. The disgraced NFL star has looked clueless on his back, but the Moldovan needs to get out of the first round, where Hardy is most dangerous.
Spivac doesn't offer much power or striking technique on the feet, and Hardy isn't afraid to come straight forward and walk through punches.
Despite his takedown numbers (2.72 per 15 minutes, 57% accuracy), I don't think that Spivac is a particularly adept wrestler either. While Hardy struggles to get up once his shoulders are flat on the mat, his first-level takedown defense is relatively sound.
That said, Hardy has asthma and has proven to fall off after the seven or eight-minute mark of his fights. He hits very hard — wobbling Tuivasa badly — and fights with reckless abandon, but if he tires out in the second round, then Spivac should work his way back into the fight and eventually take over.
Serghei Spivac punished Tai Tuivasa on the ground before putting him to sleep with an arm triangle #UFC243pic.twitter.com/22GLzjT2dQ
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) October 6, 2019
Spivac vs. Hardy Picks
Hardy is the pre-fight value side from a moneyline perspective (projected +150, listed +170), and his Round 1 prop or KO/TKO prop (projected +257, listed +300) would usually garner my attention.
I prefer the Under 2.5 rounds (-175 at DraftKings), and I projected the fight to end inside the distance 74% of the time (-285 implied). If Hardy doesn't get Spivac out of there early, "The Polar Bear" should maul him on the mat late.
You can also wait until after Round 1 to grab a live number on Spivac.
Bets
- Under 2.5 Rounds (-175, 0.5u)
- Serghei Spivac Live after Round 1
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