UFC 291 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green: A Stoppage Bet for the Vets (Saturday, July 29)

UFC 291 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green: A Stoppage Bet for the Vets (Saturday, July 29) article feature image

Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC lightweight Tony Ferguson

Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green Odds

Ferguson Odds
Green Odds
2.5 (-135 / +105)
Delta Center in Salt Lake City
10:30 p.m. ET
Odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings

It's a clash of OGs as eccentric lightweight Tony Ferguson clashes with Bobby Green, who's also struggled to find recent wins.

Despite the vets' recent troubles, there's still plenty of interest in this UFC 291 main-card bout between two mainstays of the division.

Let's break it down to see if there's a betting angle for this featured clash.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time11:2011:50
Weight (pounds)155 lbs.155.5 lbs.
Reach (inches)76"71"
Date of birth2/12/19849/9/1986
Sig Strikes Per Min5.075.97
SS Accuracy45%51%
SS Absorbed Per Min3.953.67
SS Defense58%62%
Take Down Avg0.441.28
TD Acc41%37%
TD Def66%72%
Submission Avg1.00.3

Rarely does the UFC keep a fighter around after five consecutive losses (three by finish), but Ferguson is a big name and a rare exception.

"El Cucuy" will look to get back in the win column on Saturday against fellow fan favorite "King" Green, a shorter boxer at a five-inch reach disadvantage who will need to work his way into the pocket to let his hands go.

Athletically, 39-year-old Ferguson seems wholly shot at this stage of his career.

He took a life-changing beating in his interim title fight with Justin Gaethje, subsequently had his arm and leg in compromising positions (without tapping) against Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush, ate a hellacious front kick KO from Michael Chandler, and then submitted to Nate Diaz, in a fight in which he looked concerningly stiff and slow.

Additionally, the Diaz fight was at 170 pounds, and Ferguson is now moving back down to 155, where he should be even less durable.

Green's speed differential and athletic advantages could be overwhelming in this matchup. And, as I mentioned, Green needs to get inside of Ferguson's range to box him up, so we could see a phone booth fight where Green has a significant advantage in speed and striking defense (with his shoulder roll technique).

Green doesn't load up or carry power in any individual punch, but he can overwhelm opponents with an accumulation of strikes.

This matchup is similar to Green's matchup with a past-his-prime Al Iaquinta at UFC 268, the quickest win of Green's UFC entire. Iaquinta seemed stuck in the mud, and Green put him away within three minutes. I suspect the same thing could happen to Ferguson on Saturday, given how he looked in his last fight.

Bobby Green stunned Al Iaquinta and smelled the finish ๐Ÿ˜ณ

Stream #UFC268 on @ESPNPlus ๐Ÿ”œ https://t.co/BEEAJLbQ87pic.twitter.com/vWNHwKaEwc

โ€” ESPN MMA (@espnmma) November 7, 2021

Still, Green is 36, sustained a bad KO loss to Drew Dober in December, and will need to put himself into harm's way โ€“ and create some high-variance exchanges โ€“ if he wants to finish the Boogeyman in the pocket.

Ferguson landed clean shots against Diaz and Chandler, and his offensive striking still has some potency, even if his athleticism has seemingly fallen off a cliff.

Ferguson vs. Green Pick

I projected this bout to end inside the distance 55% of the time (-122 implied odds); bet that prop up to -120, or play the Under 2.5 rounds at a slightly better number.

Given the elevation โ€“ and the potential for cardio collapse late in any of these fights โ€“ I would rather lay the juice to get the final 2.5 minutes encompassed in my wager.

I'll consider Green by KO/TKO (projected +180) or inside the distance (projected +130) for round robins.

The Pick: Ferguson vs. Green Ends Inside the Distance (-110, 0.5u) at DraftKings

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