After a weird night including the main event being cancelled at the last second, the UFC is back on pay per view this weekend. UFC 316 goes down in Newark, New Jersey this Saturday. The 13-fight card has two title fights in the bantamweight division, with Merab Dvalshivili and Juliana Pena defending their crowns.
The prelims start at 6:00 PM Eastern on ESPN+, with the main card on ESPN+ PPV at 10:00.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 316 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 316 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Merab Dvalishvili (-305) vs. Sean O'Malley (+245)
Merab Dvalishvili has nearly cleaned out the bantamweight division, with the best evidence for that the fact that he's again fighting the man from whom he took the belt.
Sean O'Malley wasn't a long running champion when he dropped the belt last September, in fact that was his first title defense. He was thoroughly dominated by Dvalishvili, losing on all three judges scorecards in a fight that never felt competitive.
It's hard to make a case for this time being any different, since we haven't seen O'Malley since then. Perhaps he really was injured going into the fight, but most fighters are.
On the other hand, Dvalshivili appears even more impressive after defeating Umar Nurmagomedov as an underdog.
It's hard to say a -300 or so fighter is undervalued, and we likely find better ways to play this than Dvalishvili's moneyline once prop markets open up. With that said, I'd make this line even wider, so I'll list the champ as undervalued for now.
Verdict: Merab Dvalishvili Undervalued
Kayla Harrison (-625) vs. Julianna Pena (+455)
I don't know the last time a defending champion has been more than a +400 underdog — if ever — but it's still hard to argue with that line.
Julianna Pena is a two time champion, with a fluky win over Amanda Nunes that Nunes later emphatically avenged, then a very questionable split decision over Rocky Pennington after Nunes retired.
Harrison is the only American to win an Olympic Judo medal — a feat she accomplished twice — and is 18-1 as a pro MMA fighter. While her two UFC wins weren't quite as dominant as her PFL run, they were extremely clear victories.
Like with the main event, it's hard to declare a massive favorite as "undervalued." I'll list this one as fairly valued, but my goal this week is to figure out howto bet on Harrison, not if we should.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Joe Pyfer (-380) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+300)
Kelvin Gastelum opened at +320 or +330 depending on the sportsbook, and I expect this line to move even further.
Joe Pyfer best attribute is his punching power, and he's shown very little ability to mix the martial arts or win an extended fight. Kelvin Gastelum might have the best chin even in the UFC.
He's been in wars against the best strikers in the sport and has yet to be knocked out. He was dropped four times by a prime Israel Adesanya but managed to finish the fight, and has never been knocked down in any other match.
If he can weather the early barrage from Pyfer he could take over down the stretch, and I'd give him better than +300 odds to do so. Grab a sprinkle on Gastelum before it moves, and be ready with a live bet come fight night.
The best line is +310 at Caesars.
Verdict: Kelvin Gastelum Undervalued
