In a sport known for feeding retiring fighters to up and comers, the UFC is giving fan-favorite Dustin Poirier a proper send off. UFC 318 is in his home state of Louisiana, and he's taking on fellow veteran action fighter Max Holloway for the third time.
The prelims air at 6:00 ET on ESPN+, with the five-fight main card starting at 10:00 p.m. on ESPN+ PPV.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Nashville odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 318 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Max Holloway (-125) vs. Dustin Poirier (+105)
Given that this is the third meeting between these two, this is an interesting fight from a "trends" perspective.
With trilogies relatively rare in modern-day competition, the sample size of third meetings between fighters is fairly small — particularly when the same fighter won the first two meetings.
That would be Poirier, who submitted a 20 year-old Holloway at featherweight in Holloway's UFC debut in 2012, then bested him by decision in 2019 for the interim lightweight title. The amount of time between each fight means reading too much into those bouts is probably foolish, but it's possible Poirier has Holloway's number in a way that's hard to quantify.
Both men have only lost to the best of the best since their last meeting, but Holloway does have a win over an opponent (Justin Gaethje) who knocked out Poirier.
The old adage is also to never bet on a retiring fighter. While that doesn't always pan out, at a relatively even betting line it's probably a good starting point.
The hype around Poirier probably pushes this line close to a pick 'em late in the week. For that reason I'm holding out for a better line on Holloway, but he'll be my pick unless the line swings hard the other way.
Verdict: Max Holloway Undervalued
Dan Ige (-170) vs. Patricio Pitbull (+142)
Patricio Pitbull had one of the more disappointing UFC debuts.
The much-hyped former Bellator champion was considered a big acquisition for the UFC, but in his debut he landed just 17 significant strikes on 50 attempts, and never really got going against Yair Rodriguez.
While it's certainly possible that UFC debut nerves got to him, I don't totally buy that argument. Pitbull fought for world title in sold out arenas for Bellator, and there's nothing magical about the cage being an octagon rather than a hexagon.
What's more likely is that a 38 year-old veteran of 43 professional fights (at the time) was simply past his prime, especially considering he had lost two of three before facing Rodriguez.
That's a bad sign against Ige, who is coming off an impressive knockout over Sean Woodson and two close losses to Lerone Murphy and Diego Lopes — with the latter fight taken on just a few hours notice.
Ige opened between -130 and -160, with his moneyline already at -200 at some spots. The -170 at DraftKings is a deal that won't last long, so jump on it now.
Verdict: Dan Ige Undervalued
Francisco Prado (-135) vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (+114)
This is another fight where DraftKings has been a bit slow to adjust their lines, as Prado opened around this price at most books, but has been quickly bet down to -170 or so elsewhere.
Even outside of market signals, I want to be on the Prado side here. While he's just 1-3 in the UFC, he's also still only 23 years old, and losses to Jake Matthews and Daniel Zelhuber have aged fairly well considering he was competitive in both fights.
Veretennikov is 0-2 in the UFC — plus a loss on the Contender Series — and at 35 is unlikely to be improving at the rate Prado is.
I'll take the younger prospect at an off-market price any day of the week, but get on it early while the best price is still there.
Verdict: Francisco Prado Undervalued
