UFC 326 goes down from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this weekend, with the headline bout being the "BMF" title fight between Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira.
The 13-fight card starts at 5:00 p.m. ET on Saturday and airs on Paramount+.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 326 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 326 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Max Holloway (-215) vs. Charles Oliveira (+165)
The main event at UFC 326 is a rematch more than a decade in the making, with Holloway officially winning via TKO over Oliveira in 2015 due to an injury to "Do Bronx." Both the method of victory and the time that's passed between those fights mean it has very little bearing on this weekend, but it's interesting to note that they've shared the cage before.
This time, Holloway is defending the "BMF" title for the second time, after winning it in memorable fashion over Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 and defending it against Dustin Poirier last July. Oliveira is coming off a submission victory over Mateusz Gamrot last fall, and also has stoppages over both Gaethje and Poirier in his career.
Since this fight has been on the books for a while, the line is fairly efficient. Both men are also known for their finishing ability, so we don't have a ton of split or controversial decisions on either side. Between those two factors, there aren't really any "luck" or "trend" factors at play here. It's worth noting that this line opened a bit closer and has moved towards Holloway, but all things considered, I'd say it's about right presently, so no early bet from me.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Gregory Rodrigues (-205) vs. Brunno Ferreira (+170)
We have another rematch on the UFC 326 main card, this time in the opening bout between Brazilians Gregory Rodrigues and Brunno Ferreira.
Ferreira made his UFC debut on short notice against "Robocop" in 2023, finishing him with a massive punch in the first round. Both men have high-level grappling backgrounds but tend to rely more on their punching power, with 60% (12 of 20) of their combined UFC fights ending in somebody getting knocked out.
However, Ferreira has leaned more on his Judo recently, with a pair of armbar wins in 2025. He's also been knocked out just once in his career, compared to four times for Rodrigues.
That, plus the fact that he checks both underdog trends — previous fight winner and younger fighter — has me surprised to see "The Hulk" as an underdog here. The line has started to move in slightly already, so I'm getting my bet in now at the best possible price. At the moment, that's +175 via Caesars, but the lines are fairly similar across the industry. I'm playing a half-unit now, and will potentially add an inside the distance prop bet later in the week.
Verdict: Rodrigues Undervalued
Long Xiao (-155) vs. Cody Garbrandt (+130)
There are two factors at play in my admittedly uncomfortable early bet on the UFC 326 Prelims.
The first is that Long Xiao has been extremely lucky in his UFC-associated career, in a multitude of ways. He was a competitor on the Road to UFC tournament, in which he won a split decision in the opening round and a majority decision in the semi-finals. His fight in the finals, ostensibly for an official UFC spot, was delayed and moved to a UFC event, giving him a "free pass" into the promotion despite ultimately losing that fight to Chang Ho Lee.
While Xiao has gone 1-1 in the promotion since then, it wasn't the most impressive run by any stretch, and against a much lower level of competition than former champion Cody Garbrandt has faced.
Garbrandt has had more downs than ups since his title reign, but has largely beaten all but highly-ranked opposition. Which brings me to my second factor here. The vast majority (73%) of Tapology predictions are on Garbrandt — and the line has started to shift his way. Based on those trends, this one could close around a pick 'em, so it's better to get on "No Love" now at a better price.
The best option on Monday morning is the +130 available at DraftKings.
Verdict: Garbrandt Undervalued
Alberto Montes (-185) vs. Ricky Turcios (+154)
Another fighter that the Luck Ratings often point to fading is Ricky Turcios. He's 2-3 in the UFC, with both of his wins coming via split decision, and all of his losses being unanimous decisions or stoppages, including a previous loss on the Contender Series.
He's taking on Alberto Montes ,who is fresh off his own Contender Series victory, a second-round submission win that unfortunately took eight seconds too long to cash my under 1.5 rounds bet on that fight. However, he was extremely impressive and has finished seven of his ten professional wins overall.
Montes is beginning to catch some early steam, with a few books moving him to -190 or beyond, so grad the -185 at DraftKings while it's still an option.
Verdict: Montes Undervalued
