Daniel Rodriguez vs. Ian Garry Odds, UFC Picks & Predictions: Take the +250 Underdog (May 13)

Daniel Rodriguez vs. Ian Garry Odds

Ian Garry is trying to live up to the hype as the next big thing from Ireland with a perfect 4-0 UFC record since his promotional debut in late 2021.

Keeping that perfect record alive is no small feat this time around, though, as "The Future" faces a major step up in competition with a UFC Charlotte fight against Daniel Rodriguez on Saturday afternoon.

"D Rod" is 7-2 in the UFC, and he's a dangerous fight for anyone in the welterweight division.

Tale of the Tape

To be honest, I haven't been impressed with Garry so far in his UFC run – at least relative to the hype that surrounded it. The former Cage Warriors champion has been given a fairly easy path so far in the UFC, with his opponents having a combined 6-11 promotional record.

Despite that, he's had rough patches in every fight except his debut.

The skills are certainly there, though, with crisp striking and solid range management from the 6-foot-3 righty.

His striking is technically sound, and he throws primarily straight shots to take advantage of his height, but he mixes in kicks opportunistically.

His footwork will be put to the test here against the southpaw Rodriguez. He has only one UFC fight against a listed southpaw, and it came against Jordan Williams, who went 0-3 before being cut by the UFC.

Williams found his chin a few times early, but Garry was able to reclaim the range and eventually win the front foot battle. That allowed him to land a perfect counter right hand at the end of the first round, finishing Williams. Still, Williams was likely ahead on the scorecards at the time.

Garry hasn't shown much of his grappling ability yet, but he has a judo black belt, as well, which could serve him well if shorter opponents try to force a clinch fight. That's probably the biggest question mark about his game right now; judo teaches excellent takedowns, but adapting them without the gi is a challenge.

Judo is also fairly limited in terms of groundwork due to its rule set, so I'd like to see some extended grappling exchanges from Garry. His ability to win – or at least survive – ground exchanges could be the key to his potential ascent in the welterweight rankings. Fortunately for Garry, that's unlikely to be a major factor in his fight with fellow striker Rodriguez.

Rodriguez is an all-action striker who stalks his opponents while throwing huge left hands. He's not the most technical striker, but he's defensively sound and wins far more of the exchanges than he loses. When he does get touched, his chin has held up well; he's never been knocked out as a professional.

Rodriguez certainly has his flaws in the grappling realm, and he was recently exposed by Neil Magny. Rodriguez was likely en route to a victory in their fight but followed Magny to the mat after hurting him. That eventually lead to some scrambles that went poorly for Rodriguez, who lost via D'arce choke in the third round.

Rodriguez's forward pressure against Garry's counters will likely be what decides this fight. While Garry is the taller man, both fighters have identical reaches. That could potentially take away Garry's best weapon: his ability to step out of range and land big counter right hands.

Rodriguez vs. Garry Pick

With the exception of Khabib Nurmahomedov, the vast majority of UFC stars suffer a bump or two on their road to the top of the division. Frequently it happens in their big step up in competition as their ability to overwhelm opponents suddenly vanishes.

There's a potential for that here with Garry. He's been clipped at some point in all of his UFC fights, but he's managed to escape with the victory despite that. Rodriguez has the power and experience to not let the Irishman off the hook if he leaves an opening in his defenses.

The way I see it, the striking exchanges here are essentially a coin flip. Rodriguez is essentially a (much) better version of Jordan Williams — the rangy southpaw Garry fought in his debut. It could be a matter of who's able to land the big shots first, and Rodriguez has a far better chance than the market implies.

I'm a bit scared that Garry chooses to grapple here – he's likely to be the far superior fighter during extended periods of ground fighting. However, we've yet to see him go that route – and the price on Rodriguez is such that I'm willing to take that risk down to about +200.

The Pick: Daniel Rodriguez +250