UFC Charlotte Odds, Expert Picks & Projections: Best Bets for Rozenstruik vs. Almeida, More on ABC (May 12)

UFC Charlotte Odds, Expert Picks & Projections: Best Bets for Rozenstruik vs. Almeida, More on ABC (May 12) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC welterweight Matt Brown

Check out our UFC Charlotte best bets as the UFC heads to North Carolina for Saturday afternoon's Rozenstruik vs. Almeida event on ABC.

UFC Charlotte features 11 fights and kicks off at noon ET (9 a.m. PT) on ESPN before moving to network TV for the ABC-televised main card at 3 p.m. ET.

So where should be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s early-start fight card that present betting value.

You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from BetMGM.

Moneyline Projections

Prop Projections

Tony Sartori: Ji Yeon Kim vs. Mandy Bohm

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:55 p.m. ET

On the preliminary card, we have a flyweight bout between Ji Yeon Kim and Mandy Bohm. Neither of these fighters has had practically any success in the UFC, with Kim going 3-6 while Bohm is 0-2 since joining the promotion.

However, there are still levels to this game, which is why Kim is priced as a heavy -230 favorite. Let's take a look at Kim's last four losses.

The first came via unanimous decision against Alexa Grasso, who is the current champion of the division. Her next loss came to Molly McCann via decision in a closely contested scrap right as McCann started to catch fire in the division.

Finally, her last two losses have come via decision against Priscila Cachoeira and Joselyne Edwards. However, the first of those losses was highway robbery.

Against Cachoeira, 14 of the 15 media scores gave the fight to Kim, a fight in which Kim was the aggressor and out-struck her opponent by a decent margin in all three rounds. Not only should Kim have easily won that scrap, but there is an even argument that she won all three rounds – though I personally would have scored it 29-28.

Meanwhile, Bohm's resume is far less impressive. Since joining the UFC, she is 0-2 with two unanimous decision losses to Ariane Lipski and Victoria Leonardo. Getting utterly dominated, Bohm lost 30-27 on all six scorecards between the two scraps.

Both fighters prefer to stand and bang, so this scrap will stay on the feet. However, neither fighter carries much knockout power while both have strong chins, making a decision the most likely result.

As long as Kim does not get robbed once again, she will likely secure a decision win as she throws with much higher volume and is the far more experienced fighter.

Pick: Ji Yeon Kim via decision (-110)

Sean Zerillo: Cody Stamann vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade

Senior Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 1:25 p.m. ET

As MMA scoring has changed over the past year or two – with judges prioritizing damage over takedowns or control positions – point-fighting wrestlers such as Cody Stamann are falling out of favor.

Stamann is the younger man in a 135-pound fight, where fractional differences in speed or explosive make a massive difference. Still, he must overcome a four-inch reach discrepancy and a power and technical striking advantage for the all-action Douglas Silva de Andrade ("DSDA").

Stamann could win the fight by landing takedowns (averages two takedowns per round) and pulling ahead on strike volume. Still, he could be more adept at consolidating position or maintaining control for extended periods, and DSDA is an explosive scrambler who won't stay on his back for long.

Moreover, Stamann doesn't carry a ton of power on the feet. So even if he does keep up with Silva de Andrade on volume – while mixing in takedowns – the optics should favor the Brazilian, who will maintain constant forward pressure and land the more dynamic and impactful strikes.

I have difficulty seeing Stamann winning this fight beyond a competitive (and potentially split) 29-28 with sustained wrestling. However, their overall MMA grappling is fairly even, and Silva de Andrade has decided upside on the feet toward a one-sided decision or potential finish.

Bet Silva de Andrade to +115, and take a poke at his odds to win by decision (projected +372, listed +450 at DraftKings) down to +400.

The Pick: Douglas Silva De Andrade (+135, 0.5u at BetMGM) | Douglas Silva de Andrade wins by decision (+450, 0.1u at DraftKings)

Billy Ward: Matt Brown vs. Court McGee

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 2:25 p.m. ET

I may be biased here – “The Immortal” is one of my favorite fighters ever – but I’m not sure why Matt Brown is the underdog here against Court McGee.

Both men are past their prime, with Brown at 42 years old and McGee 38. It’s a great booking from UFC officials, who normally sacrifice their legends to up-and-coming prospects, However, the betting markets seem to believe that Brown is completely washed while McGee still has something left in the tank.

Their recent results suggest otherwise, with McGee getting completely starched by Jeremiah Wells in his last fight. Obviously, Wells is a much tougher fight (at this point) than Brown, but it’s not a good sign for an older fighter to be separated from consciousness so thoroughly.

Especially when you’re fighting Brown, the UFC’s all-time leader in welterweight knockouts. He put on a solid performance against Bryan Barbarena his last time out, losing a split decision that easily could have gone his way.

While Brown has lost a step, power is generally the last thing to go for older fighters. Besides, the step he lost might be one that McGee never had at his peak. McGee has had his moments in the UFC, but he hasn’t beat anyone you’ve heard of in the last decade – while Brown fought the top of the division for a long time.

I also give the grappling edge to Brown, who’s extremely underrated on the mats. He has excellent trips and foot sweeps, which can help win minutes down the stretch if both fighters run out of gas.

I’d take this down to +170 while also considering some Brown ITD or knockout props.

The Pick: Matt Brown (+190 at DraftKings)

Dann Stupp: Anthony Smith vs. Johnny Walker

Senior Editor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:25 p.m. ET

A busy work schedule combined with a fiercely competitive work-sponsored steps competition left me without my usual fight-card prep this week. Not until the past 24 hours was I able to really dig into Saturday's fight card as I searched for value.

But even early in the week, one fight caught my eye – largely because it felt like it was badly lined as a virtual pick'em.

The UFC Charlotte co-main event features Anthony Smith vs. Johnny Walker, a light-heavyweight fight with big stakes for contenders in a top-heavy division without a clear pecking order. The winner will earn a key victory toward a potential title shot down the line. And the loser? Well, that's going to be a tough hole to dig out of.

And when the stakes are high and fighters are forced to look at the big picture, I'm going to trust Smith and his fight IQ and savvy. I'm also going to trust his durability, his ability to adapt to the fight conditions, and his overall skill set, including his advantage on the mat.

Walker is dangerous, no doubt.  And he's shown a bit more discipline with his move to SBG. Still, he's the type of foot-on-the-gas, worry-about-the-consequences-later wildman who could play right into Smith's more calculated game, as my colleague Dan Tom also explained.

Neither Smith nor Walker has much love for defense, and there's always worry that Walker could notch one of his signature first-round finishes. However, it's been a decade since Smith suffered a first-round knockout loss, and I think he can hold up long enough to neutralize Walker's early-fight threats.

I'd put Smith's fair odds at closer to -200 (67%), so -108 feels like an outright bargain.

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