UFC 258 Odds, Pick & Prediction: How to Bet Rodolfo Vieira vs. Anthony Hernandez (Saturday, Feb. 13)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Rodolfo Vieira of Brazil.
- The featured undercard fight of Saturday night could provide fireworks.
- Erich Richter analyzes where to find value when Rodolfo Vieira faces Anthony Hernandez.
Rodolfo Vieira vs. Anthony Hernandez Odds
|Over/Under||1.5 Rounds (+130/-155)|
|Venue||UFC APEX, Las Vegas|
|Time||Approx. 9:30 p.m. ET|
The featured event of the UFC 258 prelims will see Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and multiple time ADCC world champion, Rodolfo Vieira face off against tough as nails, Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez.
There will be no feeling out process in this fight — Hernandez has charged his opponents at the sound of the opening bell in the past and in a small octagon, this fight has finish written all over it.
Dana White has said that Vieira might have the strongest submission game in the UFC today. He will get the opportunity to showcase these skills in a major way on Saturday with plenty of eyeballs on him.
So where’s the betting value here? Let’s dig into the matchup and find out.
Tale of the Tape
|Record||7-0||7-2 (1 NC)|
|Avg. Fight Time||6:12||4:16|
|Weight (pounds)||185 lbs.||185 lbs.|
|Date of birth||1/25/89||10/18/93|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||1.85||5.03|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||2.18||6.61|
|Take Down Avg||6.05||5.27|
With a nickname like “The Black Belt Hunter” Vieira is able to back up his game with a scintillating double leg takedown technique and suffocating submissions.
Vieira is physically intimidating as well, which has led Joe Rogan to say that Vieira was “cooked in the same lab as Joel Romero”. The difference in strength should play a huge role in ground control in this fight.
In his UFC debut, Vieira hunted a jiu-jitsu black belt in Oskar Piechota. Most importantly, we saw Vieira constantly land takedowns but look vulnerable while striking. Vieira will want to avoid confrontations on the feet throughout his fight with Hernandez.
Hernandez is a significantly better striker than both of Vieira’s past opponents. Anthony Hernandez lands combinations in bunches — averaging 5.03 significant strikes, per minute per UFC Stats.
However, we have seen Hernandez struggle against higher level submission specialists. In Hernandez’s fight, Markus Perez took his back in the opening minutes of Round 1 and landed a takedown.
Vieira has significantly stronger submission skills than Perez — landing a whopping 6.05 takedowns and 2.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Hernandez will need to strike his way to a win here — a knockout might be his only path to victory.
Anthony Hernandez vs. Rodolfo Vieira Betting Pick
The under 1.5 rounds prop is an excellent spot here at -155 at BetMGM. The implied odds on this are 60.78%. Both fighters have an average fight time well under seven and a half minutes.
I expect that this prop could creep higher as we get closer to fight time — perhaps around -175 or 63.64% implied, which is where my limit would be on this prop.
Vieira is on another level on the ground, so finding his submission prop with good value is difficult. PointsBet Sportsbook has Vieira -164 (62.12% implied) via submission, which is excellent value. Most sportsbooks have this prop over -200 (66.7% implied), which is about where I project it.
If you are looking for a high risk-high reward prop play, Rodolfo to win via second-round submission +500 or Hernandez first-round knockout +1200 are solid opportunities. This is primed to be a fireworks show and one of the most exciting fights on the card.
The Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds -155 (2u) | Vieira via submission -164 (1u)