Check out my UFC 325 predictions for every fight on tonight's pay-per-view at T-Mobile Arena in Sydney, Australia.
Below, I look at the latest UFC 325 odds and break down and predict each bout on today's PPV fight card with updated odds. You can also find my prop and finish projections for each fight.
Let's break it down.
UFC 325 Predictions
After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value, and after looking at the UFC 325 odds, today's event is no exception.
So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 3223odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.
In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter's likelihood of winning by Decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance and for each fighter to win inside the distance.
Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.
Sulangrangbo vs Lawrence Lui
Bantamweight Bout
Odds
Lui
+220
Sulangrangbo
-270
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
+130/-166
Projection: Sulangrangbo (76.3%)
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this fight, please check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.
The Bantamweight Road to UFC Final has seen significant line movement, after Lui opened as a -190 favorite (65.5% implied) and has more than halved to a +210 underdog (32.3% implied) as of writing.
Lui is more polished and technical than his 21-year-old opponent, and he carries a five-inch reach advantage. Still, Sulangrangbo, who is nine years his junior, is the taller, more physical athlete and carries more power.
His ability to deny takedowns – and to scramble back up to his feet after being dragged to the mat – should prove determinative in the outcome of this fight. At the same time, Lui is the more well-rounded martial artist, so Sulangrangbo should land the more damaging strikes against an opponent like Lui, who was knocked down twice in his Road to UFC debut.
I projected Sulangrangbo as a -322 favorite (76.3% implied odds), and I would bet his moneyline straight to -285, or utilize it as a small parlay piece to around -315.
Alternatively, or in addition, I project slight edges both on the fight to reach a decision (projected +124, listed +140) and for Sulangrangbo to win by decision (projected +229, listed +230).
Bets
Parlay (+108, 0.25u) at FanDuel: Sulangrangbo (-255) & Yizha (-200); bet to -117
Parlay (-121, 0.25u) at FanDuel: Sulangrangbo (-255) & Benoit-Saint Denis (-320); bet to -150
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this fight, please check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.
I expect a close and competitive fight between two talented prospects in Saturday's Road to UFC Featherweight finale.
I prefer – and outright favor – Nakamura (projected -113), who is both four inches taller with a four-inch reach advantage, in addition to being four years younger than his opponent, Szalay.
Nakamura is a southpaw sniper with excellent footwork, defense, and power, but he is a bit too calculated and low volume at times.
While Nakamura proved he could win a decision in hostile territory by defeating Kaiwen in the Road to UFC Semi-final, I do worry about him potentially getting outworked by a fighter like Szalay, who presses on the gas a bit more aggressively.
Nakamura should be the more efficient striker, but Szalay maintains a higher pace, and could generate more – although potentially less effective – volume.
Bet Nakamura to -105 – at a two percent edge compared to my projected line – and play the fight to reach a decision up to -115 (projected -125, listed +120) in what should be a highly competitive tournament finale.
Alternatively, or in addition, consider playing Nakamura to win by decision (projected +264, listed +470) either as a straight bet or as one leg of a round robin.
Bets
Keiichiro Nakamura (+115, 0.5u) at BetMGM; bet to -105
Fight Goes to Decision (+123, 0.5u) at BallyBet; bet to -115
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this fight, please check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.
I bet on Dom Mar Fan in the Road to UFC Semi-final at plus money, but I am against him in the final as a favorite against Sangwook Kim, a more developed prospect seven years his senior.
Fan is the superior grappler in this matchup, and as the younger man, he should continue to make improvements in his overall game; still, while Fan racks up a lot of control time, he doesn't land a ton of damage from control positions, which could allow Kim to quickly work his way back into the fight at striking range.
Fan is the bigger man (4" reach advantage), but Kim is the more technical and powerful striker. So long as he doesn't spend the majority of this fight with his back flat on the mat, I'd expect Kim to press forward and land enough damage at striking range to force the judges to weigh his damage against Fan's control grappling.
Although Kim's moneyline has moved in by around 20 cents or more since weigh-ins, I still show actionable value on the underdog down to +115 (projected +109); moreover, you could poke Kim's odds to win inside the distance (projected +336, listed +400)
Bets
Sang Wook Kim (+125, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to +115
I have been against both Kaan Ofli and Yizha in each of their five combined UFC bouts. Still, I do prefer the potential ceiling for Yizha, who is the bigger man (5" reach advantage), the better wrestler, and the younger athlete (by four years) than Ofli.
Ofli is perhaps the more educated striker (60% vs. 47% striking defense in limited samples), but Yizha moves with more fluidity – and less rigidity – in exchanges.
Moreover, Yizha combines proactive grappling with a solid gas tank, and Ofli has shown he can be taken down and controlled, as seen in his loss to Muhammad Naimov. If Yizha finds a back take, it should be a round in his favor – if not the end of the fight – and he could secure a 10-8 round from that position too.
If he's able to keep the fight standing and stay at range, I'd expect Ofli to remain competitive in a kickboxing match. Still, Yizha will pressure and force grappling exchanges throughout the contest, while maintaining a high pace and making things ugly.
I project an edge on both Yizha's moneyline (projected -240, listed -200) and the fight to end inside the distance (projected +112, listed +145); additionally, I show correlated value on Yizha to win by submission (projected +278, listed +420) or inside the distance (projected +175, listed +275).
Bets
Fight Ends inside the Distance (+145, 0.25u) at ScoreBet; bet to +120
Yizha wins Inside the Distance (+275, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +200
Yizha wins by Submission (+420, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +300
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this fight, please check out the full fight preview from my colleague, John LanFranca.
There could be some market overcorrection layered into the betting line on these fighters; Elliott lost his last matchup as a -600 favorite, while Micallef cashed as a +165 underdog. Still, Elliott is also a highly popular underdog selection for this week, garnering 59% of public support compared to implied odds closer to 45%.
As a result, my model has Micallef as a 60.4% favorite, and I would bet his moneyline to -140.
Micallef is the bigger man (5" reach advantage), and the quicker athlete, but his skillset and striking arsenal are relatively limited. Elliott is the more technical fighter, but often looks like he is moving in sand, and too often has to overcome a wide gap in speed and athleticism at the highest level of this sport.
Both fighters are flawed, and the contest could be relatively sloppy yet competitive. Still, while I chose Micallef as the side on the moneyline, I likely prefer the goes to decision prop (projected -233, listed -182) up to -215, or Micallef by decision (projected +135, listed +195) down to +150.
Bets
Jonathan Micallef (-125, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to -140
Fight Goes to Decision (-170, 0.25u) at Fanatics; bet to -215
Torrez Finney is a highly popular underdog this week, with fans and bettors backing him at roughly a 63% clip in my data sample, compared to implied odds closer to 43%.
As a result, my model has Malkoun as my most significant projected moneyline edge on Saturday's card; I set his fair odds at -213 (68.1% implied) and would bet Malkoun up to -195.
Moreover, I project this fight to reach a decision nearly two-thirds of the time (projected -196), and I would bet the distance or decision prop to -180 (listed -167).
Both men are dominant control grapplers, with each above 90% in control rate in clinch and grappling exchanges. Finney has attempted a ridiculous 58 takedowns per five minutes at distance; however, he lands very little damage in the clinch or on the mat, and his range striking is still a work in progress.
I'd expect Malkoun to either deny takedown attempts from Finney or to scramble back to his feet consistently and look to fight his way to a single leg attempt or back to striking range.
At range, Malkoun is the superior distance striker (+0.8 to -2.7 per minute), although Finney is the better, more powerful athlete.
My primary concern on the Malkoun side is that he last competed in March of 2024 and pulled out of a scheduled bout in 2025 (against Rodolfo Vieira) with an injury; otherwise, I think he presents a very difficult test for Finney's style.
Considering the cage rust – and the possibility that he needs to rely on after getting taken down early, you can also target Malkoun live after Round 1.
Lastly, considering I like both Malkoun to win and the fight to reach a decision, I also show an edge on Malkoun by decision (projected +135, listed +175), either straight to +150 or as a round-robin leg.
Bets
Jacob Malkoun (-139, 0.5u) at BetRivers; bet to -195
Fight Goes to Decision (-159, 0.25u) at BetRivers; bet to -180
There are several spots on this card where the UFC is trying to give a local fighter a highlight reel win. Still, Cody Brundage could prove a difficult stylistic matchup for Cam Rowston, who was taken down ten times (and held for 11 minutes) in his contender series loss to Torrez Finney.
Rowston is the much bigger man than Brundage (3" taller, 6" reach advantage), and the far better technical striker – he should maul Brundage at distance. Still, he may need to fend off takedowns early, and you might find a better live price on the favorite after Round 1.
Both men are aggressive (49% striking defense for either), and while the game plan against Brundage is to typically outlast him and wait for him to give up in the second half of the fight, Rowston is favored to win in Round 1 (+190), and his odds to win in Round 2 (+300) aren't particularly appealing. An SGP with Rowston and Under 1.5 (+120) is similarly unappealing, considering Brundage's start fast and die pacing.
While I don't project an edge on either the side or the total, I do see more equity in Rowston by KO/TKO (projected +135, listed +175) and less in Rowston by submission (projected +455, listed +210) than the betting market suggests.
Play Rowston by knockout to +150, and watch the live market during if Brundage takes him down early.
Bets
Cam Rowston wins by KO/TKO (+175, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to +150
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this fight, please check out the full fight preview from my colleague, John LanFranca.
Both Tafa brothers – Junior and Justin – offer solid first-layer takedown defense (69% for Junior) but are relative white belts with limited cardio once they end up flat on their backs, and the presence of Billy Elekana – who can wrestle – makes this matchup a relatively binary contest.
Elekana is the bigger man (2" reach advantage), and I have never been as high on Junior's power as I am with Justin's abilities to crack and put opponents away. Junior is likely the more technical kickboxer than Elekana (+1.9 to -0.2 differential per minute at distance); still, I'd expect Elekana to commit to the grappling after an early feeling-out process.
Considering the cardio and grappling discrepancy between these fighters, Elekana is worth live betting after Round 1, and I'm also interested in his odds to win in Round 2 (+440) or Round 3 (+650), in addition to his odds to win by submission (projected +162, listed +190).
Lastly, you can consider using him as a parlay piece to -265.
Bets
Billy Elekana wins in Round 2 (+440, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +350
Billy Elekana wins in Round 3 (+830, 0.05u) at Fanatics; bet to +550
Parlay (-120, 0.25u) at FanDuel: Billy Elekana (-250) & Benoit Saint-Denis (-320); bet to -140
Quillan Salkilld is the most significant moneyline favorite on Saturday's card, lined at -1000 (90.9% implied) or higher against Jamie Mullarkey, a solid veteran with a 6-6 promotional record.
Salkilld is the better striker, but Mullarkey may have the wrestling advantage (83% vs. 78% control rate). Salkilld was taken down and controlled regionally in separate bouts against Dom Mar Fan before finishing those fights himself.
While Salkilld is a skilled offensive grappler who has pushed a high pace in a limited UFC sample, he still has something to prove concerning his defensive wrestling and grappling. I'dd anticipate that Mullarkey, who has recorded his past four losses by KO/TKO, and shot 17 times in his last bout (5:41 control), will proactively grapple from the outset.
I do project slight value both on the fight to go to a decision (projected +397, listed +490) and Salkilld to win by decision (projected +560, listed +700); still, Mullarkey is a short notice replacement (for Rongzhu) and he hasn't shown the ability to absorb big shots from opponents – or absorb damage without his facial scar tissue opening up – in recent years.
If you gave me a free bet on this fight, I would ideally play an SGP (Same-Game Parlay) with Salkilld and Over 1.5, but that only pays out +120, compared to +700 for Salkilld by decision – a far superior wager.
I also considered Salkilld to win in Round 2 (+280) or Round 3 (+700). Mullarkey tends to start fast before giving away the fight, but I'm nevertheless happy to pass on betting this one.
Tai Tuivasa returns to the octagon after a lengthy layoff (last fought in August of 2024) amid a five-fight losing streak. Fans have jumped ship from his bandwagon, backing him to win this matchup less than 20% of the time.
However, the betting market data that also powers my model shows a preponderance of sharper action on Bam Bam – driving my projection to +191 (34.3% implied) for Saturday's main card Heavyweight tilt. I have been against him throughout his losing streak, but have climbed aboard and do project value after getting some class relief.
At striking range, Teixeira represents a step down for Tuivasa compared to all of his recent opponents (Ciryl Gane, Sergi Pavlovich, Alexander Volkov, and Jairzinho Rozenstruik), save for Marcin Tybura, who is Tuivasa's stylistic kryptonite.
Teixiera is the bigger man (5" taller, 8" reach advantage) and is the far superior grappler in this matchup, too. Still, he was knocked out by Derrick Lewis in July, has never reacted well when absorbing power strikes from opponents, and there is a chance that he folds on the first clean exchange with Tuivasa.
Tuivasa will look to use his explosive low kicks to take out Teixiera's base – potentially eliminating his wrestling threat – before mixing boxing combinations to the head and body to hopefully close the show.
I show value on Tuivasa's moneyline (projected +192, listed +275) and his knockout prop (projected +275, listed +350). Still, I would also consider his odds to win by Round 1 KO (+700) or potentially play SGPs with Tuivasa and Under 1.5 Rounds (+390) or Under 0.5 Rounds (+850).
Take a pre-fight position on Tybura to win – and particularly for him to win early – and look to bet Teixiera live anytime after Round 1; he's the better athlete and should take over minute by minute the longer the fight goes.
Bets
Tai Tuivasa (+275, 0.35u) at BetMGM; bet to +225
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO/TKO (+375, 0.1u) at Caesars; bet to +300
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO/TKO in Round 1 (+700, 0.05u) at Fanatics; bet to +600
Rafael Fiziev is an extremely public underdog this week, receicing 61% of the support in my data sample, compared to implied odds nearer to 50%. As a result, my model has Ruffy as the sharp side of the fight, setting him as a near 58% favorite (-137 implied odds); bet Ruffy to -130.
Additionally, I show a slight edge on the fight reaching a decision, projecting that line at -159, compared to listed odds as low as -150; take the distance or decision prop to -155.
Ruffy is the bigger man (3" taller, 4" reach advantage, three years younger) and the younger athlete (by three years); moreover, I have thought that Fiziev seemed a bit slower in his past two fights since returning from his ACL tear, deploying his wrestling (and landing all six attempts) against Justin Gaethje and Ignacio Bahamondes.
Fiziev didn't generate much control time with those takedowns – he actually ceded more control than he gained – but he is undoubtedly a superior grappler to Ruffy, who was dominated on the mat in his loss to Benoit Saint Denis. Still, Ruffy has switched camps since that loss – moving to Australia to train with Alexander Volkanovski – and I'm curious to see what adjustments he makes to his style in his first fight since.
While Ruffy is a dangerous, calculated sniper, I'd like to see him show more of a jab and fight behind his length against Fiziev, who struggled with Gaethje's lead hand. He certainly needs to implement more volume (-0.6 strike differential per minute) against high-level competition, rather than attempting to set up a finish.
While Fiziev may shoot takedowns, I don't expect him to consolidate position for significant stretches (45% vs. 13% control rate), even if he gets past Ruffy's underrated takedown defense (81%).
And while Fiziev owns better striking by the numbers (+0.1 differential per minute), Ruffy should land the majority of head punches, which should help sway the judges. In contrast, Fiziev will tend to attack with leg and body kicks.
Ruffy has shown championship-level striking efficiency (combined 117% striking accuracy and defense; 102% for Fiziev); if he can keep this fight standing, I expect him to edge out two of the three rounds against a smaller opponent.
Bets
Mauricio Ruffy (-115, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to -130
Fight Goes to Decision (-145, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -155
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this fight, please check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.
I am a believer in Benoit Saint Denis and feel that the two hiccups during his initial title run (his loss to Dustin Poirier after a staph infection and a subsequent doctor's stoppage loss to Renato Moicano) are providing value in his re-ascension up the lightweight ladder.
Dan Hooker is the bigger man (1" taller, 2" reach) and the superior distance striker (+0.2 to -0.1 differential per minute) with a vastly more diverse arsenal of techniques. Still, Saint Denis is an elite control grappler (79% vs. 58% control rate) who averages nearly nine takedown attempts per five minutes at distance.
He is extremely hittable at range (42%), but Saint Denis utilizes his left hand and body kick to back opponents to the fence, force them into the clinch, and make them defensively grapple. Both fighters excel offensively in the clinch, but Hooker will undoubtedly get dragged to the mat (77% takedown defense) and forced to defend from bottom.
His best opportunity to finish the fight may be to land knees as BSD forces grappling entries; otherwise, he's going to go for a ride and get forced to defend against advancements and submission attempts, and he ate some vicious ground and pound against Arman Tsarukyan, which will surely be on his mind the moment BSD puts him into a bad position.
The greatest concern for Saint Denis is that he – unlike Tsarukyan- isn't nearly as potent an offensive striker, and he is far less measured than Tsarukyan defensively, which will give Hooker real opportunities to pull the upset if he can either deny takeaways or consistently scramble back to his feet.
Ultimately, I project an edge on the favorite, setting Benoit Saint Denis at 81.3% and -435 odds, compared to list odds as low as -320. You can use him as a parlay piece to -420, at a 0.5% edge compared to my projection.
Moreover, I project value on Saint Denis to win inside the distance or by finish (projected -146, listed -130), and I would find an SGP with Saint Denis and Under 1.5 Rounds (+175) similarly appealing.
Bets
SGP: Benoit Saint-Denis & Under 1.5 Rounds (+175, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to +150
Benoit Saint-Denis wins Inside the Distance (-125, 0.25u) at ESPNBet; bet to -145
For additional information on Saturday's main event and featherweight title bout, make sure to check out my full fight preview.
In short, I projected Alexander Volkanovski as a -110 favorite for this rematch with Diego Lopes, after setting him as a -168 favorite in the first fight. Volkanovski is far more public in my data sample (picked 34% vs. 43% implied) than he was the first time around, and despite Volkanovski having dominated that fight, the line for the rematch has continued to tip toward the underdog.
It is worth noting, however, that Volkanovski got to his current price point before the first fight on Thursday night, before steaming toward -150 at close. As a result, you can wait until closer to fight time for the best price on the underdog, Lopes.
The line movement against Volkanovski seems suspicious, but it aligns with my model expectations, given the data I incorporate.
You could take a small pre-fight position on Lopes and look to shoot at Volkanovski live after the first five to ten minutes. I recommended a live bet after Rounds 1 or 2 in the first matchup, and would follow a similar game plan for the rematch, especially if you take Lopes pre-fight.
Ultimately, while my heart says to run back Volkanovski again, in the same matchup he dominated, at the same price point, my gut – and the model – say that the line is oddly suspicious. I can't shake the image of Volkanovski's relative defensive recklessness in pocket exchanges from the first fight.
Sean's Picks: Diego Lopes (+120 or better small; wait until closer to fight time for best price) | Alexander Volkanovski Live Anytime after Round 1 (best price likely after Round 2)
Bets
Diego Lopes (+120 or better small); wait until closer to fight time for the best price
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Moneyline Bets
Keiichiro Nakamura (+115, 0.5u) at BetMGM; bet to -105
Sang Wook Kim (+125, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to +115
Jonathan Micallef (-125, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to -140
Jacob Malkoun (-139, 0.5u) at BetRivers; bet to -195
Tai Tuivasa (+275, 0.35u) at BetMGM; bet to +225
Mauricio Ruffy (-115, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to -130
Prop Bets, Totals, and SGPs
Nakamura/Szaly, Fight Goes to Decision (+123, 0.5u) at BallyBet; bet to -115
Ofli/Yizha, Fight Ends inside the Distance (+145, 0.25u) at ScoreBet; bet to +120
Yizha wins Inside the Distance (+275, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +200
Yizha wins by Submission (+420, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +300
Micallef/Elliott, Fight Goes to Decision (-170, 0.25u) at Fanatics; bet to -215
Malkoun/Finney, Fight Goes to Decision (-159, 0.25u) at BetRivers; bet to -180
Cam Rowston wins by KO/TKO (+175, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to +150
Billy Elekana wins in Round 2 (+440, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +350
Billy Elekana wins in Round 3 (+830, 0.05u) at Fanatics; bet to +550
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO/TKO (+375, 0.1u) at Caesars; bet to +300
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO/TKO in Round 1 (+700, 0.05u) at Fanatics; bet to +600
Ruffy/Fiziev, Fight Goes to Decision (-145, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -155
SGP: Benoit Saint-Denis & Under 1.5 Rounds (+175, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to +150
Benoit Saint-Denis wins Inside the Distance (-125, 0.25u) at ESPNBet; bet to -145
Parlays
Parlay (+108, 0.25u) at FanDuel: Sulangrangbo (-255) & Yizha (-200); bet to -117
Parlay (-121, 0.25u) at FanDuel: Sulangrangbo (-255) & Benoit-Saint Denis (-320); bet to -150
Parlay (-120, 0.25u) at FanDuel: Billy Elekana (-250) & Benoit Saint-Denis (-320); bet to -140
Live Bets
Jacob Malkoun Live after Round 1
Cam Rowston Live after Round 1
Billy Elekana Live after Round 1
Tallison Teixiera Live after Round 1
Alexander Volkanovski Live anytime after Round 1
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About the Author
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.
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