Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 325 (Saturday, January 31)

Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis Odds

Check out the Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis prediction for UFC 325 on Saturday, January 31, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

After going 0-2 in 2024, Benoit Saint-Denis reinserted himself into the title picture with three stoppage victories in 2025. Now he's matched up with Dan Hooker in what feels like a showcase fight for the Frenchman, who is going off as a more than three-to-one favorite against the popular Hooker. The Kiwi has become more known for putting on entertaining fights than he is for winning them, but can he give Saint-Denis a real test this week?

Here's my Hooker vs. Saint-Denis pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

At 35 years old, we know more or less what to expect out of Dan Hooker. The wild brawler is always down for a tough scrap and routinely holds the line against fighters outside of the top ten or so in his division while falling to the sport's best.

While he technically has two wins since 2020 against fighters who were top-ten at the time (Paul Felder and Mateusz Gamrot), both were split decisions, and both saw a slight majority of fans and media members give the nod to Hooker's opponent. Overall, he's 3-3 over his last six fights, with two split decision wins and every loss coming via stoppage.

That power discrepancy is a big part of why Hooker attempted an ill-fated move down to featherweight in 2022, where he was knocked out by Arnold Allen. In some ways ,Hooker reminds me of a more reckless Allen — and this is fight similar to last week's co-main event — with the crucial distinction being Hooker's lack of durability relative to the unfinishable Allen.

Hooker isn't necessarily bad defensively, but he's now on the back end of his UFC career, with five stoppage losses under his belt, including his last four. He's always been a fighter willing to take a shot in order to give one, but that relies heavily on being able to take said shots with limited consequences. He's also fairly vulnerable on the ground. His last three opponents have taken him down a combined eight times, with Arman Tsarukyan finishing him once it got there.

While Saint-Denis isn't the grappler that Tsarukyan is — I'm not sure anyone else at 155lbs is — he's at his best when he's dominating fights on the canvas. Saint-Denis' two losses in the UFC came against one fighter who was able to prevent takedowns by getting on top first (Renato Moicano) and another who was able to weather the storm on the ground before finishing a tired Saint-Denis (Dustin Poirier).

BSD is hyper-aggressive in both his striking and grappling, which obviously leads to a lot of finishes from him, but comes at a cost in terms of cardio. The key to beating him is either defending takedowns so he gasses out or surviving on the ground and hoping to catch him late.

Hooker's 77% overall takedown defense gives some hope for the former. It's alsofortuitous that his last fight was against an opponent who employed a similar gameplan in Tsarukyan. While Hooker fought just two months ago, the skills and strategy he was working on for that fight are also broadly applicable here.

On the other hand, that strategy didn't really work in his last fight, in which he was taken down twice,and spent more than two-thirds of the total fight in bottom position before being finished with a submission. Saint-Denis' forward pressure and striking ability also open up more opportunities for takedowns than past Hooker opponents. That helps to counteract his lesser pure grappling ability, relative to past Hooker opponents like Tsarukyan or Gamrot.

Hooker vs. Saint-Denis Pick, Prediction

This is pretty clearly Saint-Denis' fight to lose, which is reflected in the odds. Which is why I was somewhat surprised to see that his odds to win inside the distance are as low as -130 at DraftKings and FanDuel.

The majority of Hooker's losses have come via finish, and 100% of BSD's career wins have been without the judges' scorecards being read. Despite that, those odds imply that a finish is only about 70% of the favorite's win condition, when it should probably be closer to 90%.

If Hooker does manage to survive an early onslaught, a live bet his way is also a solid option. Between a partisan home crowd and Saint-Denis' cardio issues, a fight that goes the distance would be a big boost to Hooker — though I don't have much belief it happens that way.

Billy's Pick:  Saint-Denis Inside the Distance -130 (DraftKings/FanDuel)

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