Read our UFC 325 predictions for the Saturday, January 31 event live from the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. As is the new normal, the prelims kick off at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with a 9:00 p.m. main card.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 14-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC 325 Moneyline Projections
UFC 325 Prop Projections
Sulangrangbo vs. Lawrence Lui
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:45 p.m. ET
With the cancellation of the flyweight tournament final, the first fight on the UFC 325 prelims is the Road to UFC bantamweight championship bout between Sulan "Let Me" Grangbo and Lawrence "Louie" Lui (unofficial nicknames as suggested by Zerillo and I on the latest episode of our UFC Betting Preview). It also might be the most exciting of the three tournament championship bouts, all of which I broke down in my betting preview for the event.
In that piece, I discussed the technical reasons why I was backing the more experienced Lui. The cliff notes is that Sulangrangbo is a fast and powerful striker who likes to set up in the pocket and establish rhythm, while Lui hails from City Kickboxing and mixes in tons of feints, while also faking and attempting plenty of takedowns. In fact, during Sulangrangbo's semifinal bout, commentator Michael Chiesa noted that the way to disrupt him would be with feints and takedown attempts.
Since then the line has continued to move towards the 20-year-old Chinese prospect, to the point that there's concerns over the integrity of the fight. I could be way off in overlooking those concerns, but I'm viewing this as an opportunity to get an even better price on Lui.
My thesis is that since these lines have been up for a very short time — especially relative to last week's cancelled fight, where the line had been available for weeks — this is more of an organic line move than inside information. Particularly with the line moving towards a Chinese fighter, as the Asian market has a tendency to shift lines toward their own on occasion.
If that is in fact what happened, we're getting a fighter that oddsmakers originally lined as a favorite at more than two-to-one odds. The best line on Lui at the time of writing is +230 via Caesars sportsbook, but we could see even more movement close to fight time. Keep your initial bet small in case the price moves even further, but I wouldn't go beyond half a unit of total exposure in case something is fishy.
Pick: Lawrence Lui +235 (FanDuel)
Jacob Malkoun vs Torrez Finney
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 p.m. ET
