Tai Tuivasa vs. Tallison Teixeira Odds
| Tuivasa Odds | +260 |
| Teixeira Odds | -325 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+220/-298) |
| Location | Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, Australia |
| Bout Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 325 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 325 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Tai Tuivasa vs. Tallison Teixeira prediction for UFC 325 on Saturday, January 31, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Tauivasa vs. Teixeira pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Tuivasa | Teixeira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-8 | 8-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:14 | 1:02 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 264 lbs. | 258 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 83" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/16/1993 | 12/7/1999 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.77 | 12.83 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 59% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.18 | 8.98 |
| SS Defense | 44% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 0% |
| TD Def | 57% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Tuivasa vs. Teixeira Pick, Prediction
Tai Tuivasa returns to the octagon after a lengthy layoff (last fought in August of 2024) amid a five-fight losing streak. Fans have jumped ship from his bandwagon, backing him to win this matchup less than 20% of the time.
However, the betting market data that also powers my model shows a preponderance of sharper action on Bam Bam – driving my projection to +191 (34.3% implied) for Saturday's main card Heavyweight tilt. I have been against him throughout his losing streak, but have climbed aboard and do project value after getting some class relief.
At striking range, Teixeira represents a step down for Tuivasa compared to all of his recent opponents (Ciryl Gane, Sergi Pavlovich, Alexander Volkov, and Jairzinho Rozenstruik), save for Marcin Tybura, who is Tuivasa's stylistic kryptonite.
Teixiera is the bigger man (5" taller, 8" reach advantage) and is the far superior grappler in this matchup, too. Still, he was knocked out by Derrick Lewis in July, has never reacted well when absorbing power strikes from opponents, and there is a chance that he folds on the first clean exchange with Tuivasa.
Tuivasa will look to use his explosive low kicks to take out Teixiera's base – potentially eliminating his wrestling threat – before mixing boxing combinations to the head and body to hopefully close the show.
I show value on Tuivasa's moneyline (projected +192, listed +275) and his knockout prop (projected +275, listed +350). Still, I would also consider his odds to win by Round 1 KO (+700) or potentially play SGPs with Tuivasa and Under 1.5 Rounds (+390) or Under 0.5 Rounds (+850).
Take a pre-fight position on Tybura to win – and particularly for him to win early – and look to bet Teixiera live anytime after Round 1; he's the better athlete and should take over minute by minute the longer the fight goes.
Projection: Teixiera (65.7%)
Sean's Picks:
- Tai Tuivasa (+275, 0.35u) at BetMGM; bet to +225
- Tai Tuivasa wins by KO/TKO (+375, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Tai Tuivasa wins by KO/TKO in Round 1 (+700, 0.05u) at Fanatics
- Tallison Teixiera Live after Round 1
