Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira Odds
| Bautista Odds | -142 |
| Oliveira Odds | +120 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (+114/-145) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 11:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Vegas 113 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 113 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira prediction for UFC Vegas 113 on Saturday, February 7, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a 13-fight card, featuring an important matchup in the bantamweight division between No. 9 contender Mario Bautista and No. 11-ranked Vinicius Oliveira.
Bautista, a Nevada native fighting out of The MMA Lab in Scottsdale, Arizona, has a 10-3 promotional record, including a debut submission loss to Cory Sandhagen (in 2019) and a competitive decision loss against Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC 321 in October. Saturday will mark Bautista's first career main event or five-round fight, but the additional time should flatter his high-paced fighting style.
Vinicius Oliveira – a Brazilian contender with a 5-0 promotional record – could also see championship rounds for the first time on Saturday. He was booked for three different five-round fights — winning, defending, and subsequently losing the UAE Warriors title — but each of those bouts ended inside of 13 minutes.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 113 Main Event on Saturday and use those factors to bet on these bantamweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 11:15 p.m. ET on Saturday night.
Here's my Bautista vs Oliveira pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Bautista | Oliveira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-3 | 23-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:08 | 12:33 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 70" |
| Stance | Switch | Switch |
| Date of birth | 7/01/1993 | 11/30/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.58 | 5.28 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 43% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.19 | 2.89 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.48 | 1.67 |
| TD Acc | 32% | 50% |
| TD Def | 54% | 80% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 0.2 |
Vinicius Oliveira is the slightly longer (1") and younger (2.4 years) athlete in this matchup, but is far less proven against ranked UFC competition, dropping rounds despite eventually winning against fighters on the fringe of the division's top 15, before earning his ranking over Kyler Phillips, who predictably gassed after five minutes.
Bautista offers significantly better cardio than Phillips and hopes to avenge his teammate's loss in this main event. He should prove to be the more reliable minute winner than Oliveira across the majority of a 25-minute contest. At the same time, Oliveira may have the bigger, more dynamic moments and a greater chance of finishing the fight early.
Oliveira is better by the numbers (+2.5 to +1.9 striking different per minute; 65% to 54% control rate), but those stats have come in a very limited sample against lesser competition. I do believe that Bautista will frustrate Oliveira with pressure and volume (7.4 to 6.0 significant strikes landed per minute) and give Oliveira different looks by mixing in takedowns (2.4 to 1.7 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance) to exhaust his opponent.
Oliveira's lone clean win came against Ricky Simon, who showed a surprising lack of grappling urgency early on in that contest – but he has shown vastly improved takedown defense in his other contests since. Still, I expect Bautista to control the grappling – whether on the mat or up against the fence, where he can drain both the clock and his opponent and secure rounds with short strikes from the clinch (as he did against Jose Aldo).
Bautista's mix of technical striking, control grappling, and elite cardio is a title-challenger if not championship-level skillset; the UFC Bantamweight division is just incredibly deep and difficult – perhaps the best in the sport. He proved that he could consistently get up off his back in his loss to Umar Nurmagomedov. Still, I'd expect him to be the one proactively grappling here, in an effort to impose his style and potentially drain Oliveira's explosiveness for the championship rounds.
Oliveira either needs to find an early finish or rely on landing the most damaging strikes across several different rounds in this contest. Neither fighter has a perfect chin – Bautista was KOed by Trevin Jones (as a -230 favorite), and Oliveira lost by knockout three times regionally. Oliveira has the power to finish Bautista with one clean punch early – but I don't think that applies vice versa; a finish from Bautista is more likely due to attritional damage, and cardio failings on the part of his opponent.
Even if Bautista can implement his style, I'd expect the first ten minutes to look 50/50. Still, his striking and takedown volume should eventually leave Oliveira depleted for the back half of the fight. As a result, you may find the best price on the pre-fight favorite at some point live after Round 2 or Round 3.
Bautista vs Oliveira Pick, Prediction
I projected Mario Bautista to win this fight more than 60% of the time (64.3%, -180 implied odds), and I would bet his moneyline up to -165 (62.3% implied) at a 2% edge compared to my projection. Fans predict Oliveira to win this matchup more than 50% of the time in one dataset (and closer to 46% on average), while the implied odds are near 42%.
You should note the adjustment relative to opening odds; however, Bausita was as high as -220 (69% implied) a week ago, before the line moved in more than 10% (to -133 or 57% implied in prediction markets) as of writing.
In addition to Bautista's moneyline, I also project an edge on the Over 3.5 Rounds (-128) or the Fight Goes to Decision prop (projected +100, listed +140). As a result, I show a correlated value on Bautista to win by Decision (projected +180, listed +250).
Lastly, as stated above, you can search for a live bet on Bautista anytime after Round 2; still, I'd want something bigger than his current odds to win in Round 4 (+1400) or Round 5 (+1700) in order to play his late props.
Sean's Picks: Mario Bautista (-140) at DraftKings | Over 3.5 Rounds (-120) at DraftKings | Mario Bautista Live Anytime after Round 2
