Uriah Hall vs. Andre Muniz UFC 276 Odds, Pick & Preview: Betting Value on Decision Prop (Saturday, July 2)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC fighter Uriah Hall.
- Uriah Hall is favored against Andre Muniz in this early prelim matchup.
- Sean Zerillo breaks down the matchup and is targeting a longshot bet with great value.
Uriah Hall vs. Andre Muniz Odds
As Andrew Muniz attempts to further climb the middleweight ladder, vet Uriah Hall will look to halt the rising contender's momentum when they clash at UFC 276.
Muniz has won four straight fights, including three by submission, to push his overall streak to eight. He now enters Saturday's early prelim as a heavy favorite.
However, Hall, who was on a four-fight streak of his own before a loss to Sean Strickland in 2021, has excelled in the underdog role in recent years.
Who's got the edge in this intriguing 185-pound clash? Below I break down both sides of the fight and detail where to find betting value in the matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my betting projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Hall | Muniz | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-10 | 22-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:04 | 6:57 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 79" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 7/31/84 | 2/17/90 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 57% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 47% |
| Take Down Avg. | .6 | 3.6 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 40% |
| TD Def | 65% | 45% |
| Submission Avg. | 0.2 | 2.9 |
Middleweight bouts at the UFC level end inside the distance 60% of the time, yet this bout is lined at 80% or higher to end via finish.
Given the respective finish rates for the two fighters (88% of Muniz's bouts and 67% for Hall), it makes sense that the line would be above the divisional average. And given the relative binary nature of the matchup (submission grappler vs. knockout artist), I certainly would set the finish expectation higher than 60%.
However, I couldn't project this line past 74%, and I show value on the fight to go to a decision at current prices (+350 at FanDuel).
This bout reminds me of the matchup last week between Rodolfo Vieira and Chris Curtis — except the submission grappler (Muniz) is a significant favorite, whereas Vieira was the underdog.
In both circumstances, the most likely outcome is the grappler via early submission. However, if Muniz cannot secure the first-round submission — as was the case with Vieira, who went 0-for-20 on takedown attempts, the dynamic of the fight changes completely.
Unlike Vieira, Muniz is a capable wrestler (3.6 per 15 minutes, 40% accuracy), and unlike Curtis, Hall has relatively porous takedown defense (65% career) and can be controlled on the mat.
However, Hall has never been submitted in his career and has shown an ability to survive against a high-level grappler (Antonio Carlos Junior) in a dominant position. Moreover, Hall rallied to win that fight (via split decision) against shoe face.
Hall vs. Muniz Pick
I expect Muniz to get early takedowns and control time, but I'm not confident that he'll be the first man to submit Hall. And Muniz hasn't shown great cardio when he's extended. So if Hall can survive the first round, I expect him to mount a comeback.
However, Hall isn't a particularly high-volume striker, and Muniz could still win a decision with two takedowns and relatively dominant rounds before surviving for the final frame.
If I'm betting the fight to go to a decision, I also have to bet Hall to win by decision (projected +805, listed +1100 at PointsBet). And I would look to bet Hall live after Round 1 if he can survive submission attempts from Muniz early.
The Pick: Fight goes to Decision (+350, 0.25u) at FanDuel | Hall wins by Decision (+1100, 0.1u) at PointsBet
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