F1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: 1 Early Value Bet for Sunday’s Bahrain GP (Sunday, March 5)

Going into the first weekend of the F1 calendar, there is always going to be a lot of unknowns. However, there is much more certainty this season than there was at this point last year heading into Sunday's F1 Bahrain GP (7 a.m. ET, ESPN).

In 2022 we began the Formula 1 season with brand-new cars and regulations, unsure of how this would affect the field. This year the entire grid will be using the same regulations as before, so we tend to know what to expect from many of these times, outside of whatever developments they have made over winter break.

Last week we received the first glimpse into how this year may go. While preseason testing data may not have a ton of signal as different teams are trying different strategies and others may be purposely trying to not give anything away.

However, from this testing, you can start to see improvements or concerns for certain teams.

F1 Pick for Bahrain GP

*Odds as of Thursday

One of these teams that showed out in an impressive manner was Alfa Romeo. After being a team that has hung toward the back of the mid-pack in the last number of years, Alfa Romeo surprised many with its lap times at preseason testing.

Running at the same track they will be on this weekend, Alfa Romeo posted the fastest overall lap time on Day 2 of testing, as well as the third-fastest lap on Day 3.

The Day 2 lap time was set by Guanyu Zhou during a qualifying sim. I don't expect Alfa to be competing for wins, but the team has seemingly put together a strong mid-field car.

Because of this, there seems to be some value on Zhou in Bahrain. Zhou’s odds to win the race rank in the low- to mid-teens depending on the book you look at, behind the likes of drivers such as Norris, Piastri, Gasly and Ocon, whose teams all struggled during testing.

Right now at Caesars, Zhou is listed at +180 for a points finish (top 10). Elsewhere on the market this ranges from +175  to +125, so make sure you are shopping around for the best number.

Zhou had onli three points finishes in his rookie year in 2022. However, I think Alfa will be more competitive in 2023. We could easily see Zhou compete for a top 10 spot in Bahrain, where he did finish 10th last season. In my opinion, this should be priced much closer to even money than it is.

The Bet: Guanyu Zhou Points Finish (+180 at Caesars) | Bet to +150