F1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: 3 Best Bets for Sunday’s Brazilian Grand Prix (Sunday, November 13)
Chris Graythen/Getty Images. Formula 1 driver Fernando Alonso of Alpine
It was yet another victory in Mexico for Max Verstappen, who captured the single-season record for race wins.
But, surprises riddled the rest of the points with both Daniel Ricciardo and Valtteri Bottas in the top 10 with Lewis Hamilton and Sergio Perez filling out the podium.
As for our bets, it was a 2-1 output. Lewis Hamilton cashed our podium bet while our “over 16.5 finishers” prop also came through. Unfortunately, Pierre Gasly missed out on points by one spot to miss out on a 3-0 week.
Now, teams head to Brazil for the penultimate race of the 2022 season as we present a new trio of bets. Odds are as of Wednesday night.
Alpine Double Points Finish (-110 at BetMGM)
The French racing team is locked in a tight battle with McLaren for fourth place in the constructors' championship and desperately needs points in Brazil.
But, I believe there’s cause for optimism with this team in South America despite the fact this prop has cashed only once in the last three races.
If you look at prior grands prix at correlative circuits – Austria, Netherlands, Mexico, Spain, Canada – prospective bettors will find Alpine did very well at those tracks.
For Esteban Ocon, he bagged a points finish in all five of those races. As for Fernando Alonso, he secured points for Alpine in all but one (Mexico).
Plus, Alpine isn’t having to make up ground in these races that reward straight-line speed over speed through the corners. In three of those five races, this team had both drivers qualify in the points.
For those reasons, I rate this a good buy-low spot (-110 at BetMGM) on Alpine and would bet this market up to -125.
Lewis Hamilton over Charles Leclerc (-120 at BetMGM)
Stepping in front of Charles Leclerc definitely worries me, but Lewis Hamilton has proven the far superior driver in recent weeks.
Just two weeks ago in Mexico City – a correlative circuit to Brazil – Hamilton secured a P2 finish. Meanwhile, Leclerc was a distant P6, a full 53 seconds behind Hamilton’s Mercedes. That appears to be a function of the final Mercedes upgrade package at Austin, which also saw the seven-time world champion secure a finish ahead of Leclerc.
Plus, if you evaluate the full scope of correlative circuits this season, Hamilton has proven ever-so-slightly better. The Brit has yet to post a DNF at any of those five aforementioned circuits while Leclerc has one to show in Spain.
Even if you just look at the four grands prix at correlative circuits in which both Hamilton and Leclerc have finished, Hamilton has an average finish of P3 while Leclerc has recorded an average of P3.75. Further, Hamilton has finished on the podium in three of four races while Leclerc has a podium finish in only two.
Based on those metrics, I’ll back Hamilton up to -125 in this head-to-head market.
Cross-Sport Parlay: Pierre Gasly Over Yuki Tsunoda & Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline (-120 at BetMGM)
How about a little cross-sport fun yeah?
This is effectively a bet on Gasly to beat his teammate Tsunoda, who has struggled immensely since the summer break. In seven such races, Tsunoda has only one points finish, four classifications and not one, not two but three DNFs.
Included in that latter output is a DNF in Mexico City, a correlative circuit to Brazil. In fact, for the five races at correlative circuits this season, Tsunoda has DNFs in three and only one points finish.
Although Gasly has zero points finishes at the correlative circuits this year, he has no DNFs at the correlative circuits. However, he also has as many points finishes as Tsunoda has DNFs since the Dutch Grand Prix (three).
Finally, just in the last 10 grands prix, Gasly owns an 8-2 head-to-head advantage over his teammate.
As for the Chiefs, they’re 37-7 straight up as better than 7.5-point home favorites, including 11 straight wins, per the Action Labs database. Thus, I’ll use them to drive down Gasly’s head-to-head price from -200 to -120 and would bet it to -130.
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