F1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: 3 Best Bets for Sunday’s British Grand Prix
Photo by Peter J Fox/Getty Images. Pictured: Formula 1 driver Daniel Ricciardo
Two weeks have passed since the last Formula 1 grand prix, which saw Max Verstappen win (yet again).
Including the Canadian Grand Prix, Red Bull Racing has now won six consecutive races with Verstappen claiming five to establish a 46-point lead over his teammate Sergio Perez.
Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc is only three points behind Perez while George Russell (111 points) and Carlos Sainz (102) round out the top five in the current world championship race.
As for our bets in Montreal, it was a disappointing 1-2 output. Reliability issues forced Perez to retire to render our Red Bull double-podium bet a loser, while Daniel Ricciardo also won his head-to-head matchup against Sebastian Vettel to produce another loser.
In good news, Alex Albon finished ahead of Mick Schumacher to render that matchup a winner.
Those results leave us at 16-11 (+5.5 units) on the season as we turn our attention to this week’s British Grand Prix at Silverstone.
Without further delay, here are my three best bets for the race.
F1 Picks for British Grand Prix
*Odds as of Thursday evening and via BetMGM
Lewis Hamilton Podium Finish (+250)
Hamilton earned his second podium finish two weeks ago in Canada and now gets a chance to repeat that effort at his home grand prix.
He’s won the race four years in a row and hasn’t finished outside the top three since 2013, where he recorded a P4 finish.
Plus, following a disappointing start to his 2022 season, Hamilton has appeared to right the ship. Dating back to the Miami Grand Prix, the seven-time world champion has finished P6 or better in four races and P5 or better in three of his last four.
Lastly, in his last seven races on comparable tracks to Silverstone – Miami, France, Abu Dhabi and Japan — Hamilton has been on the podium six times.
For those reasons, I’d price Hamilton closer to +175 this week and am happy to bet him at his home race.
Daniel Ricciardo Points Finish (-110)
Perhaps Zac Brown giving Ricciardo a public reawakening was exactly what the Aussie needed.
Excluding his home grand prix, Ricciardo was never better than P12 in any of the season’s first six races. However, Ricciardo’s last two outputs have seen him finish P8 in Baku and P11 in Canada after qualifying P12 and P9, respectively.
Those results lead me to buy-in on Ricciardo, who has demonstrated previous success at Silverstone.
In his last three races at this circuit, the Australian has finished inside the top 10 all three times and has crossed the finish line no worse than P7. If you include his results with Red Bull, Ricciardo has now finished in the points at Silverstone six consecutive times.
Further, if you consider Ricciardo’s last 10 outputs at Silverstone and the aforementioned comparable circuits, he’s finished inside the points in five. However, one of his failures was actually a disqualification in which he crossed the line P6.
So, although I’d much prefer to bet Ricciardo in plus-money for this market, I believe -110 is worth laying at one of Ricciardo’s most comfortable circuits.
Yuki Tsunoda (+135) over Guanyu Zhou
I’m sorry, but are we actually going to make Zhou a near -200 favorite after a single points finish?
I’ll be honest, this is mostly just an odds play as I have these drivers rated much closer together than the lines suggest. Plus, Tsunoda has actually had the advantage over Zhou lately.
Over the last six races, the AlphaTauri driver has won this head-to-head matchup in four, including at a correlated circuit (Miami).
In addition, some of Tsunoda’s best finishes last season came at other correlated tracks. He was P4 in Abu Dhabi, P13 in France and P10 at last year’s British Grand Prix.
Further, Tsunoda has established himself as a more reliable qualifier lately.
Across the last five races, Tsunoda has qualified ahead of Zhou on four occasions. The one effort in which he failed to do so came in Canada, where his qualifying motivation was essentially zero after opting to add reliability parts and start at the back of the grid.
Based on those factors, I would have these two drivers rated slightly closer to a pick‘em, so I’m happy to back Tsunoda at a high price.
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