F1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Early Bets, Including a 28-1 Outright, for Miami Grand Prix (Sunday, May 7)

F1 is stateside for the Miami Grand Prix on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, ESPN), and we're looking at Miami GP betting options ahead of the race.

Last week we had the curveball of the new sprint format, but this week we will go back to having a normal race weekend format. Ferrari came through huge for us at Baku, showing out as easily the fastest non-Red Bull team all weekend.

Now we head to Miami for the second annual Miami Grand Prix. Miami is an interesting track as it is constructed in the parking lot around Hard Rock Stadium. This makes for some cool visuals when seeing the surroundings of the track, the wild fan atmosphere and the paddock now being inside of the stadium.

However, the racing quality in year one was questionable. 

For the track itself, Miami seems to skew more toward being a downforce-focus track rather than being power-based like Baku was. From a comparison perspective, Melbourne would be the best track to look at from where they have been this year.

For the first time this season, weather may be a big factor. At last check, there is a 40% chance of rain on Saturday and 60% on Sunday. This makes the race hard to predict early in the week and adds some variance to the potential outcomes, both for qualifying and the grand prix. 

Last year Max Verstappen, who is atop this year's Miami Grand Prix odds board, took home the victory in Miami and is the heavy favorite to do so again in 2023. However, it was his teammate Sergio Perez who won both races last weekend and now sits just six points behind the reigning champion in the drivers’ standings.

F1 Picks for Miami Grand Prix

Return of the Max

I hate that I have to do this, but I would lay -200 on Verstappen to win.

He’s in the best car on the grid, and despite Perez having good results last weekend, I think that Max will be able to outrun him as the No. 1 driver on the team. 

This Red Bull car still has a large gap on the rest of the field, and unless the rain, mechanical failure or an untimely safety car impacts things, I think that Verstappen will be able to extend his championship lead.

The Pick: Max Verstappen to win (-200 at BetMGM)

Best of the Rest: Mercedes

In a similar way to how I bet Melbourne, I think that the Mercedes drivers could both have a strong weekend. Their car is well-suited to this track, and if rain were to come during the race, Lewis Hamilton could show his wet-weather prowess and contend for a win.

I don’t love Mercedes this weekend as much as I did in Melbourne, just because I think that we have seen improvements from other teams on the grid. Ferrari seems to have made upgrades that have helped them in their cornering ability, making them not as attractive to fade this weekend as they were in Australia.

I don’t take a lot of outright winners as longshots in F1 since they usually don’t have much of a prayer of hitting, but I like taking a small position on Hamilton as a potential underdog winner this weekend, which also helps to hedge against my Verstappen position.

A safer pick would just be taking Lewis to place on the podium at +250, which I would recommend as well with larger sizing than the outright win bet.

The Picks: Hamilton to podium (+250 at BetMGM) | Hamilton to win (+2800 at FanDuel)

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