F1 Odds, Picks & Predictions for Monaco: 2 Value Bets to Make Ahead of Saturday Practice & Qualifying
Photo by Jay Hirano ATPImages/Getty Images. Pictured: Formula 1 driver Carlos Sainz
Two of three practice sessions are in the books at Monaco and boy have we learned a lot.
Ferrari, somewhat unsurprisingly, dominated both sessions. In FP1, lead driver and race favorite Charles Leclerc led the paddock by posting a top-time of 1:14.531.
However, he was only three one-hundredths of a second ahead of Red Bull’s Sergio Perez and seven one-hundredths ahead of Ferrari teammate Carlos Sainz.
The second session saw further Ferrari dominance as Leclerc and Sainz went 1-2 with each posting top times below 1:13. The Red Bulls of Perez and Max Verstappen closely followed, with Perez noting after the session Ferrari’s performance caught the team off-guard.
.@SChecoPerez admits Ferrari's pace on Friday at the #MonacoGP has surprised Red Bull.
— Autosport (@autosport) May 27, 2022
With the sessions complete, it’s now time for us to revisit the odds and place further wagers. Although I planned to add only one today, I’ve found two bets that caught my eye.
Without further delay, here are my two best post-practice bets. All odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to change.
F1 Picks for Monaco
Ferrari Double Podium Finish (+125 at BetMGM)
Like Perez, I too was very impressed by the Ferraris on Friday.
Most assumed that the tight corners on Monaco’s street would give La Scuderia an advantage over Red Bull and Mercedes. That assumption proved correct.
Assuming Leclerc and Sainz go out tomorrow and qualify 1-2, these odds will be long gone.
Plus, the streets of Monaco offer little opportunity for overtaking, so qualifying on the podium will give the Ferrari duo a strong chance of finishing in those positions.
Although this particular market has cashed in only three of six races this season, I believe this is a good time to buy-low.
Leclerc is taking part in his home grand prix and will be further motivated after a DNF in Spain. That, presumably, leaves the onus on Sainz to cash this ticket.
In addition to his performance in practice today, Sainz owns a decent history at Monaco. He was P2 last year in his first Monaco Grand Prix with Ferrari. In three prior attempts with Renault, Sainz posted finishes of P6, P10 and P6.
For those reasons, I’d play this market up to +100.
Valtteri Bottas Points Finish (-105 at FanDuel)
Kids, don’t ever say that it doesn’t pay to shop around.
Yesterday, Bottas was -175 to finish inside the points. At BetMGM, that number has held steady.
However, it appears as though the fine folks at FanDuel put a ton of weight on Friday’s practice sessions. Bottas participated in only one session today (FP2) and recorded a P13 finish, which led to this steep price drop.
But I’m choosing to not place a ton of weight on today. Rather, I’m choosing to focus on past historical trends that suggest this is too strong of an overreaction.
Case in point, Bottas has qualified inside the top 10 in all but one race (Australia) this season and has ultimately won points in every race in which he’s finished.
In just his last two races — Miami and Spain — Bottas finished P7 and P6 after qualifying P5 and P7, respectively. Further, the lead Alfa Romeo driver has a decent history at Monaco.
Although it’s somewhat comparing apples to oranges, the former Mercedes representative has won points in three of his last four races at this setup.
In his last 16 races dating back to last season, Bottas has earned points in 13 races. Should Bottas go out and qualify inside the top 10, I believe you’ll see these odds jump back up.
For those reasons, I’m willing to bet on today proving a fluke and Bottas earning points for the fifth consecutive race on Sunday.
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