F1 Odds, Predictions & Picks: Matchup & Prop Bet for Australian Grand Prix (Sunday, March 24)

Check out the final F1 odds with Australian Grand Prix predictions and picks for early Sunday morning (12:01 a.m. ET, ESPN2 and ESPN+).

Following qualifying, these are the latest F1 odds for the Australian Grand Prix outright race winner:

• Max Verstappen: -700
• Carlos Sainz Jr.: +1000
• Charles Leclerc: +1100
• Sergio Perez: +1200
• Lando Norris: +4000
• Oscar Piastri: +6500
• George Russell: +8000
• Fernanda Alonso: +10000
• Lewis Hamilton: +12000
• Lance Stroll: +20000
• Yuki Tsunoda: +30000
• Alexander Albon: +50000
• Valtteri Bottas:  +50000
• Pierre Gasly: +80000
• Nico Hulkenberg: +80000
• Kevin Magnussen: +80000
• Zhou Guanyu: +80000
• Esteban Ocon: +80000
• Daniel Ricciardo: +80000

The F1 Australian Grand Prix on Saturday night/Sunday morning takes place in Melbourne at the Albert Park Grand Prix Circuit. This track is one of eight street circuits on the 2024 F1 race calendar, and the second consecutive after Jeddah two weeks ago.

Albert Park's track characteristics include a mix of medium and high-speed corners with four DRS zones for overtaking. The track features 14 turns with heavy 90-degree braking corners at the end of the longer straights.

Qualifying took place on Saturday afternoon local time Down Under with only 19 cars participating. Unfortunately for Williams and Logan Sargeant, he will be sitting on the sidelines for the weekend after a FP1 crash by Alex Albon rendered only one functioning car for qualifying and the race.

While Albon did make it past Q1, he will start P12 behind Lewis Hamilton, who also failed to qualify for Q3. Lewis’ teammate will start P7 on the grid with the Mercedes W15 struggling for pace to start the 2024 campaign.

It was a tight battle for pole position at Albert Park, with Max Verstappen edging out Carlos Sainz by 0.27 seconds in Q3. Inside the top six of the starting grid are both Red Bulls, both Ferraris and both McLarens.

Sergio Perez was third quickest in qualifying, but due to a three-place grid penalty for impeding, he will start down in P6. Ahead of him will be Lando Norris in P3, Charles Leclerc in P4 and – the Australian in his home grand prix – Oscar Piastri in P5.

*Odds as of Saturday night and via DraftKings. Bet on the F1 Australian Grand Prix with our DraftKings bonus code.

F1 Odds: Australian Grand Prix Picks & Predictions 

Carlos Sainz vs. Sergio Perez Head-to-Head

To start the season, Red Bull has finished 1-2 in the first two races so far. In Bahrain, Perez started one place behind Sainz and finished one place ahead of him. Sainz missed the second race of the season, but he's back in the car only two weeks removed from getting his appendix removed.

Looking at the lap times for each driver thus far in Australia, Sainz has gotten the better of Perez in three of the four sessions. FP1 you can chalk up to Sainz getting his sea legs underneath him and not pushing too hard. In FP2 and FP3, Sainz ran third fastest on the grid with Perez down in eighth and seventh, respectively.

During the qualifying session, Carlos Sainz Jr. was fastest on the grid in both Q1 and Q2. While he failed to qualify on pole in Q3, Sainz did finish P2 with a lap time of 1:16.185 and ahead of Perez.

Despite the Ferraris' inability to beat the Red Bulls in a race thus far in 2024, I like Sainz's value over Perez for the race at Albert Park. Perez was hit with that grid penalty and will start down in P6 for the race.

The Pick: Carlos Sainz over  Sergio Perez (-110 at DraftKings, 1 unit)

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Prop Bets for a Safety Car

I would never encourage anyone to root for a crash, a spinout, or a coming together with a barrier – but that doesn’t mean we, as bettors, can’t profit off of them when they occur.

While the 2024 season has seen a mostly clean two races – with just one safety car being deployed in the first two races – racing on the streets of Australia lately has been anything but clean.

Going back to the 2022 Australian Grand Prix, we've seen three separate incidents that brought out a safety car. The opening lap, when all cars are trying to gain as many positions as possible as the lights go out, saw a spinout of a Ferrari and the first of three safety-car deployments.

Because the Australian Grand Prix is a track-position race, the 2023 edition was full of carnage and safety cars. We've seen Lap 1 incidents for consecutive years, an accident on Lap 7, and multiple restarts. In total, there were two safety cars and three red-flag incidents just last year.

The recent history suggests that there is a high probability of a safety car for the F1 Australian Grand Prix, and Vegas agrees. This is a lot of juice to lay for a single bet, but I can see this bet cashing for a third year in a row on the opening lap. I am confident that the safety car will be deployed at least once, and I'm willing to pay up for this bet.

The Picks: Will there be a Safety Car? – Yes (-275 at DraftKings, 5.5 units) | Over 1.5 Safety Cars (+175 at bet365, 1 unit)