Freedman’s Favorite NASCAR Matchup Prop: Martin Truex Jr. vs. Kyle Larson at QuikTrip 500

Freedman’s Favorite NASCAR Matchup Prop: Martin Truex Jr. vs. Kyle Larson at QuikTrip 500 article feature image

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: NASCAR Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr.

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring at least one of his favorite bets for each day of 2019.
  • On Sunday, he looks at the QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway (2 p.m. ET, FOX) and highlights the driver matchup between Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Larson.

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

Also follow me in The Action Network app, where each day I post additional, official player prop picks: Today we have six-game NHL and three-game NBA slates.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

140-127-9, +13.99 Units

  • NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
  • NBA: 60-50-2, +3.65 Units
  • NHL: 48-56-6, -3.07 Units
  • Golf: 3-4-1, -0.50 Units
  • NASCAR: 3-2-0. +1.55 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.00 Units
  • NCAAB: 0-1-0. -1.00 Units
  • Exotics: 5-0-0. +2.64 Units

Freedman’s Favorite NASCAR Driver Matchup for Sunday, Feb. 24: Martin Truex Jr. vs. Kyle Larson

  • Martin Truex Jr.: +100
  • Kyle Larson: -130

NASCAR returns today with the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway (2 p.m. ET, FOX), and with it comes a new aerodynamic package that is expected to change the style of racing we typically see at the 1.5-mile ovals.

But even with the new aerodynamic package, I expect that not everything will change.

Truex has been one of the most dominant drivers in NASCAR over the past two years, finishing second in points last year with 5,035 and first the year before with 5,040.

Atlanta is one of four large oval tracks with a rough surface that produces heavy tire wear, and Truex has dominated on such tracks over the past year:

  • Atlanta: 5th
  • Auto Club: 1st
  • Texas (spring): 37th (did not finish)
  • Chicago: 4th
  • Texas (fall): 9th

Since 2010, Truex has been a total master at Atlanta, especially since the race moved from the fall to spring in 2015.

  • 2010: 12th
  • 2011: 14th
  • 2012: 4th
  • 2013: 3rd
  • 2014: 23rd
  • 2015: 6th
  • 2016: 7th
  • 2017: 8th
  • 2018: 5th

Larson has also been good at large ovals with heavy tire wear. Last year, he and Truex were comparable at such tracks.

  • Atlanta: 9th
  • Auto Club: 2nd
  • Texas (spring): 36th (did not finish)
  • Chicago: 2nd
  • Texas (fall): 5th

And they had comparable 10-lap times in final practice.

  • Larson: 176.534 mph (2nd)
  • Truex: 176.115 mph (3rd)

But Truex’s longtime history of Atlanta dominance and his overall strength over the past two years give him the edge.

At +100 odds, Truex has a 50% implied probability of finishing ahead of Larson. I think his true odds of winning this matchup are closer to 60%.

I’d bet on Truex down to -115.

The Pick: Truex (+100)

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

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