NASCAR Race Odds, Picks: Best Bets for Coca-Cola 600 (Monday, May 29)
Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Ross Chastain of the NASCAR Cup Series
Memorial Day weekend Sunday was a massive day for racing fans, but it's not quite over thanks to the rainout of the Coca-Cola 600, which now takes place Monday (3 p.m. ET, FOX)
We had tapped a host of motorsports experts for our best bets for the F1 Monaco GP and the Indy 500 on Sunday. The Coca-Cola 600 was also scheduled for Sunday, but the NASCAR Cup Series race was postponed and pushed to Monday due to weather.
So, skip through the F1 and IndyCar picks – which included many winners on Sunday – for the Coca-Cola 600 picks today.
In addition to writers from the Action Network, our racing best bets include picks from motorsports bettors who are also verified experts in the Action App.
So, below, check out their Coca-Cola 600 picks. Also, click the writers' names below to open their profile in the Action App and tail all of their action.
F1 Monaco GP Picks
- Start time: 9 a.m. ET
- TV: ABC
Esteban Ocon Podium Finish (+150) | Ocon Winner Without Verstappen (+1200)
Cody Goggin: Saturday’s F1 Monaco GP qualifying session was electric, and we were almost able to really shake up the grid for Sunday. Alas, Max Verstappen had an insane third sector on his final lap of Q3 to take the pole position, his first at Monaco.
Even with Verstappen starting first, we still saw some surprises with both Alpine drivers qualifying top seven and Sergio Perez’s accident that will force him to start at the back of the grid.
Fernando Alonso almost qualified well enough to earn the pole but still has an impressive starting place in second. Charles LeClerc was third fastest but will start from sixth after a three-place grid penalty for impeding Lando Norris.
I already stated my love for Alpine coming into this week, but I didn’t imagine that Ocon would fire off from the third position on Sunday. As Monaco ends up resembling a parade in many cases, there is a strong chance that the Frenchman will be able to retain his positioning and potentially score a rare podium finish.
Max Verstappen will likely run away with the race win again, but after him, I think that it will be Alonso, Ocon and the two Ferrari drivers battling for the other two podium spots. While it’s certainly possible that at least one of these Ferraris makes its way past Ocon, I think at plus money I am willing to bet that Ocon can hold on to his great positioning and get a podium.
If you are feeling a bit more confident in Ocon, you could also take him to be the “winner without Max Verstappen.” This is being offered at +1200 odds at Caesars. I think that there is a better chance that Ocon can get past Alonso and defend this position than the current odds would state.
The Picks: Esteban Ocon podium finish (+150 at BetMGM) | Ocon winner without Verstappen (+1200 at Caesars)
Pierre Gasly Points Finish (-300)
Jim Sannes: Right now, the only true value I'm seeing at F1 Monaco is on the back half of the top 10 to log a points finish.
The largest edge there is Pierre Gasly to finish top 10, which is -300 at FanDuel Sportsbook. The implied odds there are 75.0%, but I've got Gasly's points odds at 78.7% (-369).
Gasly's lone non-points-scoring finish at Monaco came last year, when he started 17th. However, he still managed an 11th-place finish.
Gasly's teammate, Esteban Ocon, showed the speed in the Alpine in qualifying Saturday.
If you want to add to the card, I do have slight a edge on George Russell (-330) to finish in the top 10, as well. However, Gasly – even at ridiculous chalky odds – is the one I'd lean toward here.
The Pick: Pierre Gasly points finish (-300) |
Carlos Sainz Jr. Podium Finish (-106)
Chase Holden: I don't watch a lot of F1 racing.
However, on the greatest weekend in motorsports, I am here and do my best to pay attention.
It’s no secret that I support the man named Charles Leclerc (aka "Charizard Charles" as I like to call him on Twitter). And after his grid penalty, I had to look to his teammate, who posted some great lap times.
I normally wouldn't bet anything with minus odds, but this one seemed too good to pass up.
The Pick: Carlos Sainz Jr. podium finish (-106 at Barstool Sportsbook)
Indy 500 Picks
- Start time: 12:45 p.m. ET
- TV: NBC
Josef Newgarden (+1600)
Chase Holden: When the year started, I had this feeling that a great Indy oval racer would be pouring a bottle of milk all over his head this year (sounds super obvious, right?).
Josef Newgarden is that man!
Newgarden hasn't had the best of luck on IndyCar’s crown jewel oval track, and he hasn't posted a top-five finish in more than two years. So, you could truly call this a “Gut Boi Play."
However, my feeling is that we will see a hungrier Newgarden show up on Sunday with more of an aggressive strategy, and he's live to get the win.
The Pick: Josef Newgarden (+1600) |
Felix Rosenqvist Top 3 (+470)
Nick Giffen: Felix Rosenqvist, the driver of the No. 6 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet, has not had a stellar track record at the Indy 500, let alone at ovals in general throughout his career.
However, his lone top-five finish at an oval did come in last year's Indy 500 when he finished fourth, so at least there is something there to hang our hat on.
What I really like about the fifth-year Swedish driver is what his peers are saying. Up and down the paddock, drivers have named Rosenqvist as having one of the best cars, and that's something you can't ignore when handicapping this race. Track history and other ovals are only a small piece of the puzzle. Instead, it's all about what you've done in the month of May with two full weeks of practice.
In fact, Rosenqvist didn't even need the full two weeks. He ended his Carb Day more than 30 minutes early because he was so happy with his car that there was no need to spend more time on track late in the session when teams and drivers who hadn't fully figured out their car were getting desperate to find speed and risk getting caught up in an incident. That's the confidence I like to hear.
While I don't mind backing him for the win at +1400, given his lack of top oval finishes, I do think there's enough upside here to back him for a podium finish. When we're getting a driver that all the other drivers are saying is one of the cars to beat at the ninth-shortest odds, we have to take it.
Pick: The Pick: Felix Rosenqvist top 3 (+470) |
Alex Palou Top 5 (+105)
Dale Tanhardt: I’m on Alex Palou to win the Indy 500, but don’t make that your only bet – because my top outright pick has finished second in this race three years in a row.
Palou has one of the strongest cars in the field and repeatedly shows glimpses of dominance by knocking on the door in this prestigious race.
A second-place finish in 2021 and P9 in 2022 (after leading 47 laps) precedes what is now his best shot to win the 500. He’s in a rocket ship.
The 6-1 odds to win it is worth it, but plus money for a top 5 is worth more, in my opinion
The Pick: Alex Palou top 5 (+105 at Barstool Sportsbook)
Coca-Cola 600 Picks
- Start time: Monday, 3 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
Ross Chastain (+1100)
Jim Sannes: My model views William Byron, Kyle Larson and Ross Chastain in a tier of their own for Monday's Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte.
Larson and Byron are appropriately priced, but Chastain is far too long at the current +1100 odds.
Chastain has consistently been a threat on 1.5-mile tracks both last year and this year. He could shoot himself in the foot (or someone else could do it for him) in the Coca-Cola 600 on Monday.
However, I think the odds are over-accounting for that here, so I'm taking Chastain to win the Coca-Cola 600 at 11-1 odds.
The Pick: Ross Chastain (+1100 at DraftKings)
Bubba Wallace (+2000) | Wallace Top Toyota (+500)
Dale Tanhardt: Bubba Wallace has seen a string of competitive runs, finishes and opportunities to win.
His ride has been one of the best in the Toyota fleet at the 1.5-mile tracks, and he’s surprisingly outpaced teammate Tyler Reddick on this style of racetrack.
I think we’ll see some correlation from Kansas, where Wallace had the second-best Toyota behind Denny Hamlin.
I’m willing to take a shot and ride the momentum here with what I expect to be another fast racecar this weekend. I'm going to take Bubba to win outright, and I also will bet him to have the top Toyota.
The Picks: Bubba Wallace (+2000 at Caesars) | Wallace top Toyota (+500 at Caesars)
Bubba Wallace Top Toyota (+500)
Greg Matherne: Over the past year, Bubba Wallace has developed into an excellent driver on 1.5-mile tracks. He has been a regular contender for wins and earned his first Cup victory outside superspeedways at the second Kansas race in 2022. That strong end to 2022 has carried over into the start of 2023.
Charlotte is a 1.5-mile quad-oval with significant correlation to the 1.5-mile tri-ovals of Las Vegas and Kansas. If we look at incident-adjusted speed this year, Wallace was sixth at Las Vegas and fourth at Kansas. On those tracks, Wallace ran 89.8% of his laps inside the Top 10. Only Denny Hamlin (92.9%) and Martin Truex Jr. (95.9%) ran more laps inside the Top 10.
If we add in Darlington, which ran the same tire codes as will be used this week he was second in speed early, bigger incidents slowed his car.
Wallace is a threat to win this race, but I prefer the cushion of having to beat only the five other Toyotas and not having to worry about the super-fast Chevys (where I have Kyle Larson, William Byron and Ross Chastain as the clear favorites to win).
At +500, Wallace is much longer than Hamlin (+180) Truex (+220) and Christopher Bell (+380), despite showing speed on par with those drivers. I’m comfortable with this bet down to +475 (and at some smaller books, as of 6:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, you can even find this bet as long as +650).
The Pick: Bubba Wallace top Toyota (+500 at Caesars)
Bubba Wallace (+115) over Martin Truex Jr.
Chase Holden: Bubba Wallace and 23XI have really seemed to step up their game lately, and in a race like the “Coke 6,” there are more factors than how well you can drive at play.
It is no secret that Martin Truex Jr. has had his fair share of pit road woes, and I can see these things affecting him and the No. 19 teams come Monday.
There are too many factors that point in Bubba Wallace’s direction for this head-to-head matchup this weekend for me to pass up these odds.
I'll take Wallace to best Truex on Monday in Charlotte.
The Pick: Bubba Wallace over Martin Truex Jr. (+115 at Barstool)
Austin Dillon (-120) over Chase Briscoe
Jordan McAbee: "Awful" isn't even a good enough description when it comes to Chase Briscoe at the large oval tracks this season. Looking at Green Flag Speed this year, Briscoe was 33rd-fastest at Fontana, 30th-fastest at Las Vegas, 34th-fastest at Kansas, and 30th-fastest at Darlington. Both Las Vegas and Kansas are low-wear 1.5-mile tracks like Charlotte this weekend, and Goodyear brought the exact same tire combination for the Coca-Cola 600 as they did the Darlington race.
Now, this weekend at Charlotte, we have a race for which the teams got no practice or qualifying, which means Briscoe's Stewart-Haas Racing team didn't have the opportunity to try to make this car any better from where they've been at similar venues all season.
In this specific head-to-head pairing, Austin Dillon is 3-1 against Briscoe this season, with his only loss coming at Darlington – where Dillon wrecked out.
Barring another incident that the No. 3 Chevrolet gets caught up in, Austin Dillon over Chase Briscoe should be a slam dunk in the Coca-Cola 600. Betfred has the matchup available at -120. Bet365 also has it playable at -130.
The Pick: Austin Dillon over Chase Briscoe (-120 at Betfred)
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