Freedman’s Favorite Gander RV 400 Bet: Kyle Busch Will Finish in Top 10

Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces highlighting bets I like (usually props). See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

In this piece, I’m looking at my favorite bet for the Gander RV 400 at Dover International Speedway on Monday (12 p.m. ET, FS1).

For non-NASCAR bets, follow me in The Action Network app.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

697-534-40, +94.75 Units

• NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
• NBA: 342-263-7, +37.10 Units
• NHL: 66-80-7, -7.57 Units
• MLB: 44-51-12, -11.89 Units
• Golf: 8-8-2, +1.85 Units
• NASCAR: 10-17-0, -5.97 Units
• NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
• Exotic: 74-31-0, +28.25 Units
• Horse Racing: 1-0-0, +0.04 Units

Gander RV 400: Kyle Busch to Finish in Top 10

• Busch Top 10: -500

I don't even need to know how Busch practiced on Friday and Saturday or what position he's in to start the race.

Busch is driving in today's NASCAR race. I'm betting on him to finish in the top 10.

Busch entered 2019 as the reigning NASCAR Cup Series champion, and he's dominated under the new aerodynamic and rules package. We're 10 races into the season, and Busch has finished in the top 10 in every race.

And Busch has historically been great at Dover. In the 2017 spring race, Busch was the early leader, but because of a mistake made by his pit crew, his left-rear tire literally fell off his car while he was driving.

And yet he still managed to finish No. 16 overall. That's how good Busch is at Dover.

There's just one potential problem: In each of the past five spring Dover races, Busch has had some sort of race-altering issue that has caused him to fall out of the top 10.

But in his past 10 fall races at Dover, he has dominated. In one race, he crashed out. In each of the other nine races, he finished in the top 10.

I asked NASCAR expert Nick Giffen about what might be behind Busch's spring/fall Dover splits.

Freedman: Is there a big difference in conditions between the spring and fall Dover races?

Giffen: Nope, just non-playoff vs. playoff races.

Freedman: Busch has struggled at Dover in spring (crashes?) but crushed in the fall. Wondering if that is random.

Giffen: Probably random.

Data can be hard to find going back more than a decade, but throughout his career, Busch has had six — maybe seven — spring Dover races without a race-altering incident. In those races, he was two wins and six top-five finishes.

In 14 years of Cup Series races at Dover, Busch has finished all but one incident-free race in the top 10. And he might have had an incident that race too. (Again, data is spotty going that far back.)

So if you're betting on Busch to finish in the top 10, you're basically betting that he won't crash or experience some sort of mechanical issue.

At -500, there's an 83.3% implied probability that Busch will finish in the top 10. Given how well he and his pit crew have handled the new aerodynamic and rules package this year, I think his odds of having an incident-free race might be as high as 90%, even with his negative recent history at the spring Dover race.

I'd bet on Busch to finish in the top 10 down to -600.

The Pick: Busch Top 10 (-500)

For daily player props, follow me in The Action Network app.

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.